Ramblings: Hurricanes Hold Off Elimination; Stars Take Series Lead; Roto Ranking Forsberg, Hintz, Carlson (May 12)

Ian Gooding

2024-05-12

There were two games of playoff pucks on Saturday: Game 4 of the NY Rangers/Carolina series, and Game 3 of the Colorado/Dallas series.

Hurricanes 4, Rangers 3 (Rangers lead series 3-1)

Brady Skjei's goal with just over three minutes left in regulation gave the Hurricanes the lead for good in Game 4, preventing a Rangers sweep and giving them life for at least one more day.

As Harnarayan Singh just said, that was the first power-play goal for the Hurricanes in the series. This was also the first loss for the Rangers in this year's playoffs, and the first time that Igor Shesterkin has allowed more than three goals in a playoff game in two years (to the day) – a streak of 30 consecutive games.

Sebastian Aho, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Stefan Noesen scored the other goals for the Hurricanes, while Teuvo Teravainen registered two assists. Aho has seven points in his last four games, while Skjei has five points in his last five games. Kuznetsov was a healthy scratch for Game 2, but since returning to the lineup has seven shots in two games.

After Pyotr Kochetkov started Game 3, Frederik Andersen was back in the crease for Game 4. Andersen stopped 22 of 25 shots in earning the win.

Will Cuylle, Barclay Goodrow, and Alexis Lafreniere scored the Rangers' goals. Lafreniere in particular is holding a hot stick with four goals in his last three games and 10 points in eight playoff games. Only Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck have more playoff points among Rangers.

Filip Chytil missed Game 4 with what the Rangers called an illness. Jonny Brodzinski entered the lineup in Chytil's place.

Stars 4, Avalanche 1 (Stars lead series 2-1)

Logan Stankoven and Tyler Seguin each scored a pair of goals in the Stars' victory. One of each player's goals was an empty netter, with Seguin's second-period goal turning out to be the game-winner. Stankoven's goals were his first of the playoffs, while Seguin has now scored goals in back-to-back games after being held without a goal in his first eight playoff games.

Mikko Rantanen scored Colorado's lone goal, with Nathan MacKinnon providing the primary assist. Check out MacKinnon skating through traffic to make this goal happen.

Jake Oettinger stopped 28 of 29 shots in earning the win. In spite of some tough matchups against first Vegas and now Colorado, Oettinger has posted quality starts in 8 of 10 playoff games.

With an assist on Saturday, Miro Heiskanen now has four points over his last three games.

Joe Pavelski, Mr. Clutch in the playoffs? Not this year. Pavelski, the all-time leader in playoff goals among active players (73), has just one assist in 10 playoff games this season. On my 20-player playoff pool (picked before the playoffs, no adds/drops), Pavelski is easily my worst performer. Based on that recent lack of production, it's fair to project further decline since Pavelski will be 40 when next season starts – assuming he signs somewhere.

This clip aptly describes Pavelski in this year's playoffs.

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I will be updating the Top 100 Roto Rankings for May soon. Before I do, please leave any feedback that you have for the rankings. Usually I update them every month, but April was an unusually busy month with the Playoff Draft Guide.

I'll discuss three players that an X follower recently sent me feedback on.

Filip Forsberg – too low (22)

If you're wondering how Nashville managed to make the playoffs this season, look no further than Forsberg. He finished the season with career highs in virtually every scoring category that matters in multicategory leagues: goals (48), assists (46), points (94), shots (347), power-play points (32) and even hits (138). More importantly, Band-Aid Boy Forsberg managed to remain healthy for an entire season, playing a full 82 games. That matters because you would have usually had to knock 10+ games off your projections for Forsberg, who had not played at least 70 games in a season since 2016-17.

The comment was actually that Forsberg should be ranked higher than Jason Robertson. That's a great debate, and you can examine the Frozen Tools Player Comparison here. Forsberg clearly had a better season than Robertson, but can we expect that to be the case going forward? On the flipside, will Robertson ever reach 109 points again? I think you still have to go with the player with the higher upside, which is Robertson (currently ranked 20th). But the gap between these two players has decreased to the point where I will keep them similarly ranked.

Roope Hintz – too high (39)

I'll start this with the playoff version of Hintz. After a four-point game in Game 2, Hintz registered an assist in Game 3. Prior to that, Hintz had registered just one point in his first eight playoff games. Not the kind of production you'd expected or hoped for if you had Hintz in your playoff pool and the Stars going to the final.

Hintz's point-per-game average during the regular season (0.81 PTS/GP) was the lowest it had been in four seasons, while his shots per game average (2.3 SOG/GP) was the lowest it has been in three seasons. Hintz didn't really have any outstanding peripherals either (182 SOG, 35 Hits, 19 PPP). One reason for targeting Hintz would be that he has reached 30 goals in three consecutive seasons, but his three-season goal total is 25th in the league over that span and similar to that of Brock Nelson, Adrian Kempe, and Timo Meier. On top of that, over 50% of Hintz's assists this season were secondary assists, which was higher than normal for him. Yep, I'm agreeing here and definitely moving Hintz down.  

John Carlson – too high (51)

Carlson was one of those blueliners that I would by default rank high and not think about too much. That is because he could be relied upon for a 60+ point pace for a half-dozen seasons while on the point for one of the league's better power plays. However, Carlson is now 34 years of age, and he's seen his production decline from 1.09 PTS/GP in 2019-20 to 0.91 PTS/GP in 2021-22 to 0.73 PTS/GP in 2022-23 to 0.63 PTS/GP in 2023-24. Despite that, Carlson still finished as a top-20 defenseman in points and was even close to a top-10 defenseman in power-play points.

Carlson is ranked among a group of defensemen that include Erik Karlsson, Charlie McAvoy, and Victor Hedman (Player Comparison here). Among those d-men, Hedman stood out as the best of the group with a strong bounce-back campaign, so he needs to be moved up. After that, there wasn't a ton of difference between the other three in terms of point production. I might then go Karlsson (for scoring upside), then McAvoy (for peripherals), then Carlson. The last three could form a cohort (that may include others) where they are similarly ranked and drafted. But like anything, I could change my mind on that given offseason moves, injury news, and other information that I didn't take into consideration. All of that will likely move Carlson down a little.

Follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.

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