I would have thought that Valeri Nichushkin's suspension (discussed by Cliffy yesterday) would have made room in the lineup for another black-ace scorer on the wing in Nikolai Kovalenko. Kovalenko put up excellent numbers in the KHL this year, but has only gotten a very limited look in the post-season here, playing a total of 13 minutes across two games, recording one shot, five hits, and a minus-one rating.  

With the Avalanche struggling to score against the Stars, he is someone that might just get a shot next game with the series on the line. And then come fall when the Avs are still missing Nichushkin, I think he's a player that could see an early-season spike in value with some top-six deployment.  

*

Boston was without Brad Marchand again for game five, but this time Charlie McAvoy stepped up with a goal and an assist in the win. Jeremy Swayman continues his excellent post-season with a 28 save effort on 29 shots, but needs to win two more without losing another game, if Boston is going to stay alive.

Jeremy Swayman comes up with a huge save in the dying seconds of regulation as the @NHLBruins force a Game 6! 🤯 #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/XtAMHFdyXv

— NHL (@NHL) May 15, 2024

Prior to getting stonewalled on the play above, Sam Reinhart scored one goal on his other seven shots, to bring him up to 10 in five playoff games. A little below his fifty-goal pace in the regular season despite upping his shot-per-game rate from 2.8 to 4.5. Not sustainable over a full season probably, but interesting to note that he can bump his shot rate when he wants to. He has never been over 2.8 in a season, but I wonder how spectacular of a season he could put together if he was over three per game.

* 

I put out my most recent salary projection numbers on Monday, and you can find them here.

The list obviously tops off with Jake Guentzel and Reinhart, but can you guess who number-three is without looking?

He's a defenceman, but not Brandon Montour. He's an RFA, but not Thomas Harley. Projected for an $8.45 million cap hit on his new extension is Moritz Seider. The do-it-all defenceman who didn't quite take the offensive step forward in his third campaign that many were expecting after he slumped a little in his sophomore year.  

The numbers were actually eerily similar from year two to year three, with an identical 42 points, 140 shots (year two) to 136 (year three), 207 hits to 203, 190 blocks to 212, and 15 power play points to 17. Interestingly, Seider also played all 246 games possible on his ELC, averaging nearly 23 minutes per game for its entirety. In trying to show improvement against his own measuring sticks, Seider hasn't shown that next step yet, but let's not forget just how far ahead of his peers he already is at his age.  

Seider also plays some of the toughest minutes in the league, and his offensive zone start percentage has actually gone down each season in the league, despite the team improving marginally around him. His other underlying numbers look solid if unspectacular, hinting that while he may end up with a cap hit close to Miro Heiskanen, the offensive upside may not be quite as high, nor as short in coming.  

*

With Vegas' incoming cap crunch, it's unlikely that more than one of Jonathan Marchessault, Michael Amadio, Chandler Stephenson, or Anthony Mantha return. Based on my projections from above, and the space that Vegas currently has, they’re going to be making a decision on either Marchessault or Stephenson, and then trying to nickle-and-dime Amadio to see if he will come back on a cheap deal as well. In the end, it could be just the entrance music that Brendan Brisson needs to make an impact.

8 months from now, I want you to think about this tweet when Brendan Brisson is on pace for 25 goals.#VegasBornpic.twitter.com/c0Lwua64cL

— Jack Manning (@NHLJackManning) May 14, 2024

* 

The Edmonton Oilers turned to Calvin Pickard for last night's game, and based on the regular season numbers it isn't entirely surprising. Pickard was solid in the regular season. Putting up a better save percentage and GAA than Stuart Skinner in the regular season. Skinner has since gone and imploded in the playoffs, and this may be the last we see of him this year even if the Oilers advance. Pickard wasn’t spectacular last night, but he was solid, and that was good enough.

The Oilers also broke up the Darnell Nurse/Cody Ceci pairing that was getting demolished by Vancouver, and through the early part of the game it made a big difference. Edmonton held Vancouver to four shots in the first period, and 21 in the game overall.

Conor Garland eventually broke through for the Canucks on his fourth shot of the game, and then Brock Boeser (also with four shots) scored with the goalie pulled to force overtime. At least, that’s the way it felt, until Edmonton answered about 45 seconds later off the stick of Evan Bouchard. The Oilers live to face another day.

* 

I'll get into more prospect stuff and maybe a mock draft at a later date, but that's for when there's more space and no playoff games on.  

In the meantime, I did still want to touch on something that's been brought up over on the forums regarding Macklin Celebrini, and that's where he plays next year. Not just how many points he scores in the NHL next year, but whether he goes back to college for one more run with good friend Cole Eiserman at BU. We haven't seen a first-overall pick not play in the NHL for a while now, but the college route does have its advantages with the education, the early end to the season that would still allow Celebrini to sign before the end of the season, as well as playing with Eiserman.  

This kind of decision won't be made lightly, and it won't be made until after the draft, when the locations are locked in for Celebrini and Eiserman – it could even end up that both are San Jose picks, as they do have #1 and #14 overall.  

All that to say, that Celebrini might not even be in the Yahoo database next year, and might not be relevant for fantasy squads who are looking to compete for a title in 2025. If he does sign and play though, then a rookie season similar to Jack Eichel's might be in the cards, with around 25 goals, 30 assists, three shots per game, and a lot of minuses across a full season.  

* 

Moving down to the number-two slot in the draft, it seems like a lot of people are already penciling in Ivan Demidov over Artyom Levshunov (or whoever the top defenceman is on your list). For the Blackhawks though, this pick should be BPA, as they need everything while they are building up. The problem is though, that the next few years are a lot lighter on defencemen than the 2024 draft, while the 2025 and 2026 groups have a nice set of high-octane forwards.

I do think it becomes a discussion point for the Blackhawks on whether they take this opportunity to lock in a top-pairing defenceman, knowing that next year they may have the opportunity to draft an even better forward anyways. As good as Kevin Korchinski and Alex Vlasic may become, they probably aren't your #1 defenceman as a Stanley Cup contender, regardless of the forward core. If I was confident in the projection for Artyom Levshunov (or any of the Dmen in this draft class really) that is the route I would be pushing, however I'm just an armchair GM.

* 

I stayed up on Monday night to watch game three of the London/Oshawa OHL final, and I was not disappointed. In the first two games of the series, London steamrolled Oshawa by a combined score of 17-2, and Leafs prospect Easton Cowan scoring eight points across the two games. Flyers picks Denver Barkey and Oliver Bonk had six and five points respectively.

Game three was even more action. It looked initially like it was going to swing in Oshawa's favour, before the Knights climbed out of a four-goal hole in the third period and then won it in double overtime. As much fun as the NHL playoffs are to watch, the CHL finals, Memorial Cup, Frozen Four, and World Juniors might just be the peak of hockey entertainment.

Unfortunately for Oshawa, they also didn't have Beckett Sennecke who has been a late riser on public draft boards this season. Hopefully this injury doesn't affect his long-term outlook moving towards the draft.

Over in the QMJHL, the finals finished in a sweep, just like the OHL and WHL finals are threatening to do too, with Moose Jaw leading that series 2-0 going into last night’s game three.

We have our first league champion and second Memorial Cup entrant. Drummondville, even without Maveric Lamoureux due to shoulder surgery, have swept the Q final. pic.twitter.com/c0KXWs7JRe

— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) May 15, 2024

*

See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.