Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. Can the Edmonton Oilers complete an improbable comeback in the Stanley Cup Final? We will find out on Monday evening in Game 7.

Only the 1945 Red Wings and the 1942 Maple Leafs erased their 3-0 deficits during a Stanley Cup Final. The '42 Leafs managed to finish the job and win the Cup.

This series is a microcosm of the Oilers’ entire season. They fall into what looks like an insurmountable hole, then they turbojet their way out of it with their top gun in the driver’s seat. That’s what the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers will be known for if they win the Stanley Cup.

The Panthers have to be stunned right now. Three cracks at winning the cup are gone. Losing a Stanley Cup is disappointing, but letting it slip through your fingers when you had about a 99% chance of winning it at one point has to be crushing. At least there’s one more chance, and it’s in front of the home crowd. But if you’re a diehard Panthers fan or you’ve placed some major coin on them winning the Cup (or you absolutely hate the Oilers), you’ll be sweating bullets on Monday.

Game 7 is what we’re here for. One game for all the marbles. This is the game we played in the street or the outdoor rink. (june22)

2. Brandon Montour, Sam Reinhart, Adam Henrique and Vladimir Tarasenko are going to be four of the most sought-after free agents, bringing experience and talent. They have probably each added $1 million to their cap hit next year by making the finals.

This playoff run may also have bought Sergei Bobrovsky one more year with the team, before they inevitably try to move his contract and pass the torch to Spencer Knight – and after his excellent year at the AHL level, he deserves a fair shot. (june19)

3. The Penguins are bringing back Alex Nedeljkovic, signing him to a two-year extension with a $2.5 million average annual value.  

Nedeljkovic began the 2023-24 season as the backup to Tristan Jarry but took the reins as the hot starter from about mid-March until the end of the season. During the final month of the regular season, Ned backstopped the Penguins in their playoff push, compiling a 9-1-3 record over the final month.

Although Nedeljkovic was clearly the better goalie during what was the fantasy playoffs in many leagues, he and Jarry finished the season with very similar numbers. Jarry has both the larger cap hit and term, so he is the likely starter next season despite his final-quarter woes (10 GP, 2-6-1, 4.50 GAA, .874 SV%). That being said, there are rumors that the Penguins could try to trade Jarry, as they have nearly $8 million invested in goaltending. (june21)

5. During the offseason, there’s usually a major void in topics for the Ramblings because of the lack of games. One topic that flicked the lightbulb on for me was players on the trade block and what their fantasy value could look like on different teams, so I decided to jump on it.

After prewriting earlier in the week, the content that I wrote about two players on the block became irrelevant: Filip Hronek (re-signed with Vancouver) and Jacob Markstrom (traded to New Jersey). So I would have had even more for you had these teams waited a bit longer to begin their offseason transactions. By the way, you can read about the Markstrom trade here.

Before this becomes outdated, below is Part 1 of this topic, while Part 2 is here.

Linus Ullmark

The fact that Jeremy Swayman started in the playoffs for the Bruins could mean the end in Boston for Ullmark. In shopping Ullmark, the Bruins will be able to choose among a variety of teams looking to upgrade at the goaltending position. The Bruins are light when it comes to draft picks and prospects due to years of contention, so an Ullmark trade would allow them to stockpile in that area. Acquiring a legitimate top-6 center is also a pressing need.

Ottawa is one team that has been rumored to be targeting Ullmark. How he would fare in Canada’s capital would be interesting, to sway the least. The Sens had a league-worst team .888 SV% last season, so Ullmark could easily improve on that team number while watching his own ratios take a hit. Ullmark’s save percentage has never dipped below .900 in a single season, even during some lean years in Buffalo, so he could bring some much-needed stability to the goaltending position in Ottawa. We could discuss other teams here, but Ullmark will more likely than not be traded to a team that struggled with its goaltending.

Ullmark would be a significant upgrade over Joonas Korpisalo, although the Sens also have Anton Forsberg under contract for one more season. Fun fact: Ullmark has never played in 50 games in a season, but he has won 40 games in a season (during his Vezina Trophy winning 2022-23 season). Ullmark could play in 50 games for Ottawa, but 60 games might be a reach considering that the Sens will also be trying to get something out of Korpisalo because they are paying him $4 million per season for four more seasons. (june21)

6. Nikolaj Ehlers

There are rumors abound that Ehlers would welcome a change of scenery and is not interested in signing an extension with the Jets. Ehlers has only one more season left on his contract, so the Jets could try to get ahead of things and shop Ehlers around. For what it’s worth, new coach Scott Arniel mentioned on a podcast recently that he wants to get Ehlers going.

The main issue that fantasy leaguers have always had with Ehlers is his lack of power-play time. When new coach Arniel was filling in for Rick Bowness last season for two different stints (October 23-November 22, March 19 – end of season), Ehlers’ power-play time wasn’t any different. Ehlers has never registered more than 13 power-play points in the season, which I wouldn’t bet on changing if he stays in Winnipeg.

From what I’ve been told, and I’ll share this as many times as I need to: A Winnipeg media member once told me that Ehlers is never on the top power play because he wants the same spot that Mark Scheifele has. Hence, his usual deployment on the second unit, although Scheifele and Ehlers were on the same unit at times during the 2023-24 season.

To determine Ehlers’ fantasy value if he is traded, you might start by projecting where he fits on his new team’s pecking order of scorers. You can also go one step further to determine whether his acquiring team has a player that is usually positioned on the left half wall on the power play. A sample of Ehlers and Scheifele power-play goals that I’ve scanned through shows that both players tend to score from that position. Power-play usage will be key in whether Ehlers can take that next step beyond 65 points, which has been his ceiling for his nine-year career (point pace aside).  (june21)

7. Martin Necas

Necas has been at or near the top of the list of trade speculation this offseason, with multiple reports suggesting that many teams have contacted the Hurricanes about him. Necas is set to become an RFA, but it is believed that he has not been happy with his role in Carolina. Like Ehlers, Necas has generally not received the favorable power-play minutes. On top of that, Necas was often skating alongside players like Michael Bunting, Jack Drury, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi at even strength – not exactly the Canes’ top options.

Even without the best available linemates, Necas was still able to use his speed to drive play enough to reach 50 points for the second consecutive season. It wasn’t 71 points like the previous season of 2022-23, though. Taking a closer look at that season, Necas was more frequently on the top power play, registering double the number of power-play points (26) as he had in 2023-24 (13). Not all of that point drop in 2023-24 was in the form of power-play points, but most of it was. Necas’ linemates varied during that season, although there seemed to be more minutes with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov.

Look for both an uptick in both even-strength and power-play deployment in order for Necas’ value to increase with a trade. Being happier on a new team might also count for something. That being said, being traded to a team that does not play at the same level of puck possession as the Canes might work against Necas, who has been a 58 CF% over the past two seasons. (june21)

8. On Tuesday, Vancouver extended defenseman Filip Hronek for eight years at $7.25M. While that might seem like a big number, as a percentage of the cap in 2024-25, that works out to just over 8%, or a high-end number-2 defenseman. It is still a lofty ask – he needs to perform to levels like Hampus Lindholm or Devon Toews – but this isn’t the same as signing for $7.25M a season five years ago.

For cap leagues, it’s fair to keep in mind that his 48 points and 148 shots were both career-best marks and he did that on a team that was fifth in the league by even strength goals. As long as Quinn Hughes is around, Hronek will not spend much time on the top power play, so expecting more than 50 points is asking too much. Also, he’s not a volume shooter and doesn’t put up a lot for hits or blocks – he’s fine in those areas, but certainly not a multi-cat merchant. This is probably too rich of a contract for it to be palatable in cap league formats, especially where this thing lasts for eight years. That is not a contract people want to get stuck with, even if the cap is over $90M in 12 months’ time. (june20)

9. Pierre-Luc Dubois, before his trade protection kicked in on July 1^st, was sent to the Washington Capitals with goaltender Darcy Kuemper headed the other way. Alex wrote about this yesterday. (june20)

10. Jacob Markstrom was finally traded as well as he was send to a New Jersey Devils team that very much needed his services. Alex also had the breakdown of that trade here. (june20)

11. Back in Tuesday’s Ramblings, I talked about defensive responsibilities for certain defensemen, namely looking at which ones were doing the heavy lifting for their teams. This was an attempt to look at which blueliners are tasked with the puck-moving duties on their respective pairs/teams to try and make sense of some high- and low-turnover options (for example: Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Jake Sanderson). It is really just an attempt to see who may be getting the short end of the stick from a certain perspective.

Today, we are moving on to the forwards. Here are some guys who stood out as being particularly responsible for a lot of defensive zone work with the tracking data from AllThreeZones and is all at 5-on-5. For example:

Dylan Larkin

We won’t go long on this one because it probably comes as no surprise, but Larkin is the Detroit forward with the most defensive zone touches and exits per 60 minutes in this tracking data. He really is the heartbeat of this entire team, but it also highlights the problem: he can’t do it all himself. Lucas Raymond took a step forward this season and looks to be rounding into an excellent winger, but if those two are on the ice together, it really doesn’t leave a whole lot elsewhere on the roster to do the work that needs to be done in the zone. It is a very interesting offseason for the Red Wings. (june20)

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12. Pascal Vincent was let go by the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday after only holding the head coach title for one season.

It’s tough to peg Johnny Gaudreau and where he might fall season by season. Zach Werenski could be in line for a bit of a scoring dip though, as he was played heavily by Vincent and his scoring levels seem to follow his ice time. It likely won’t be a huge drop, but I would expect closer to 55 points than the 67-point-pace from this past year.

Add onto that, the new coach (hopefully someone who is willing to play younger players) is likely going to have at least one of David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk on the roster next season, if not both. That provides a lot more options on offense, and maybe a bit of need for sheltering the younger players too.

Looking at the rest of the skater group, the young Russians (Dmitri Voronkov, Kirill Marchenko, and Yegor Chinakov) will have to continue to earn the second line minutes mainly in the offensive zone that they were given last year. Meanwhile, Adam Fantilli, Jake Bean, Cole Sillinger, Adam Boqvist, Kent Johnson and Alex Nylander will also need to battle for space. This is a young team with another new coach, and more replacements coming up the pipeline. Nothing is really written in stone.

The goalie split is going to be interesting to see too, but there could be some movement around Elvis Merzlikins before the season, so it’s still a little too early to speculate on that one. (june19)

13. The Blue Jackets have signed RFA Yegor Chinakhov to a two-year extension worth $2.1 million per season. The 23-year-old Chinakhov, who was a first-round pick in 2020, scored a career-high 16 goals and 29 points in 2023-24. He seems primed for a significant role with the Blue Jackets going forward, particularly if the Jackets will be trading Patrik Laine this offseason (more on him later). Chinakhov is also the first signing under new GM Don Waddell. (june22)

14. It sounds like a Buffalo buyout of Jeff Skinner might be a real possibility. This would help out wingers like J.J. Peterka and Jack Quinn, as well as possibly opening a roster spot for one of the young guys (Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund, Isak Rosen).

On Skinner’s end, he likely isn’t getting a better spot than from October 2022 to the end of 2023 while on a line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Unfortunately, Thompson’s injury spelled the end to their time together as the calendar flipped to 2024, and Skinner toiled on a much less productive third line after that point. He’s likely a middle-six player wherever he ends up, producing closer to this past season’s 51-point-pace rather than the 85-point-pace from the year before.

In cap leagues, his value shoots up, because he might just be a $3 million winger on the open market, and with a buyout he would be making $2.5 million the next six years anyways. (june19)

15. Scott Perunovich signed a one-year, $1.15 million deal in St. Louis. If Torey Krug gets bought out then Perunovich would have some serious fantasy value, but while he remains stuck behind Krug the likelihood of hitting his upside remains limited. (june19)

16. Rick Roos is looking for a couple more mailbag questions, and you know that no one does a deeper dive for your queries than Rick does. Get those offseason conundrums in early before you get stuck at the back of the mailbag line.

To submit a question you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

17. Regarding the early part of the upcoming NHL Draft, the first bit of intrigue may be where Ivan Demidov goes, but the second could very well be what happens at the Utah selection. It seems like there is a bit of a sense of which direction each team in the top-five is leaning, but not Utah. If they keep the pick, their selection could be any number of players within the top-12 grouping, but recent rumour is that they may look to move the pick. It would be a big swing for the first year that the city has a team. (june19)

18. Last week, San Jose filled their vacant head coaching spot by hiring Ryan Warsofsky. My breakdown of the hiring can be read here.

With Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini, William Eklund, Henry Thrun, and a few nice prospects in the cupboard, it sure seems as if the Sharks are trending in the right direction. It will take a couple years before they really start to push towards the top-half of the Western Conference, but there is now a nice group of young players for Warsofsky to develop. Things certainly look better than they did 12 months ago. (june18)

19. With the news that CapFriendly was bought by Washington and will be going dark sometime in the next month, now is a good time to give PuckPedia a look. That site doesn’t quite have all the tools and widgets that CapFriendly does (for now), but it’s a very good resource for contracts and cap space, and it’s surely going to grow now that it’s one of the few spots where that kind of information is being kept. They aren’t affiliated with Dobber Hockey in any way, they are just a good resource that we’re going to have to learn to use, so check them out. (june18)

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Be sure to grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

Just letting everyone know that work on the 2024 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide has already started! It’s not coming out for a couple months yet but the work never stops even though the Cup Final is still ongoing. We want to thank everyone for their support, whether it’s this guide, the Prospects report, or anything else. It’s certainly appreciated by myself and the rest of the editors here are Dobber Hockey, so thank you.

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20. Fantasy hockey championships are won by maximizing value – acquiring a player when their stock is low and reaping rewards once fortunes change. The hard part is identifying such targets, because for every player who bounces back from a low point, there are several that don’t.

One thing that can help is focusing on players that seem to be performing below standard due to a limiting factor that is likely to be lifted. For example, a good player may have seen sheltered minutes under one coach, but the firing of that coach opens the door for improved deployment (see Jeff Skinner under Don Granato vs. Ralph Krueger).

Another example of this, the one I’ll be focusing on today, is injury. From my perspective, the players on this list underperformed this past regular season because they weren’t at 100%. If they can stay healthy next year after a full offseason of rest and recovery, their fantasy value should be on the rise. Check out the case of Mason McTavish below:

21. McTavish had an incredible start to the 2023-2024 campaign, opening up with 20 points in his first 19 appearances. He then went pointless in his next four outings before missing seven games with an upper-body injury. It’s worth noting that in his final two games before the injury absence, he played 13 minutes and two minutes, respectively. 

He wasn’t as effective once he got back in the lineup, tallying just 10 points in his next 19 appearances. That brings us to the All-Star Break and Anaheim’s bye week. McTavish missed Anaheim’s first game out of the break due to an upper-body injury. Now, there’s no official word on whether this injury was related to the one that caused him to miss time earlier in the year, but considering both injuries affected the same region, it’s a fair assumption. It might also explain why he wasn’t as productive leading into the break – perhaps he was playing through something? Thanks to that bye week, McTavish got 12 days of rest while only missing one game. He seemed more like himself once he returned, posting nine points in his next nine outings.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit again as McTavish then suffered a lower-body injury and was seen leaving the arena in crutches and a protective boot. Miraculously, he missed just two games after that. However, his return may have been premature as he didn’t register a point in four games and then proceeded to miss another two contests – again with a lower-body injury. He came back and posted a measly two points in eight contests before spraining his MCL and missing the final six games of the campaign. I know it’s incredibly dangerous to speculate and make assumptions without all the information, but missing two stints in close succession with a ‘lower-body’ injury and then suffering a knee injury doesn’t seem coincidental – to me at least.

Conspiracy theories aside, the main point here is that McTavish can have a great offensive impact when healthy, as he showed in the first quarter of this past season. He finished the year with a 54-point pace, but I think his output would’ve been higher if he wasn’t hindered by injuries. If he can stay healthy in the upcoming season, I think the 21-year-old forward can flirt with a 65-point pace. (june17)

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Have a good week, folks!
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