Hello everyone, and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I am going to review some case studies of fantasy teams that utilized a Zero Goalie (ZeroG) approach. I will be directly comparing the Goalie Value in these strategies to the opposite strategy of drafting secure Goalies early.

In ZeroG, you don't draft goalies with early picks (usually refraining from taking a goalie until most other teams have taken 1-2 of them). You then have all your early draft picks open to take some skater studs, leading to you likely having an advantage over other teams in skater categories. This advantage is a given in ZeroG strategies and I won't be comparing how these teams did in skater categories. I will however be seeing if this advantage comes at a cost in the Goalie categories or if there is really no cost if done well.

I have been given a few case studies from people in the community. I've reviewed all of their goalie transactions and been able to determine if they had Quality Weeks (QWs), Star Weeks (SWs), or Really Bad Weeks (RBWs) from the goalies they had on their team in a given week. Their fantasy team then gets a composite True Value Score like all goalies within my True Value Goalie Rankings.

Here are the top 25 goalies in True Value this past season:

For comparison of the ZeroG case studies, let us consider non-zero G approaches to goalies, where two "strong" goalies are drafted early on in drafts. Here are a few likely combinations given their ADP and their average team True Value composite score (averaging the two goalies').

Combo 1 – Full Goalie Approach

Igor Shesterkin (goalie ADP of 1), True Value Score of 3.68

Ilya Sorokin (goalie ADP of 2), True Value Score of 0.57

True Value team score = 1.98

Draft picks used – Round 2 and 3

Combo 2 – One early Goalie, one mid-round goalie, one late rounder

Jake Oettinger (goalie ADP of 3), True Value Score of 2.96

Thatcher Demko (goalie ADP of 16), True Value Score of 3.64

Adin Hill (goalie ADP of 26), True Value Score of 1.07

True Value team score = 2.55

Draft picks used – round 2, 8, and 12

Combo 3 – Strong Tandem plus late-round Starter Approach

Linus Ullmark (goalie ADP of 7), True Value Score of 3.26

Jeremy Swayman (goalie ADP of 9), True Value Score of 2.31

Jacob Markstrom (goalie ADP of 25), True Value Score of 0.44

True Value team score = 2.0

Draft picks used – Round 3, 4, and 10

Combo 4 – Early Goalie Lottery Win

Connor Hellebuyck (goalie ADP of 6), True Value Score of 4.93

Sergei Bobrovsky (goalie ADP of 11), True Value Score of 4.52

True Value team score = 4.73

Draft picks used – Round 3 and 6

Combo 5 – Early Goalies, Terrible Luck

Ilya Sorokin (goalie ADP of 2), True Value Score of 0.57

Alexandar Georgiev (goalie ADP of 4), True Value Score of 1.87

True Value team score = 1.22

Draft picks used – Round 2 and 3

Combo 6 – Established Workhorses Early, No big misses

Igor Shesterkin (goalie ADP of 1), True Value Score of 3.68

Juuse Saros (goalie ADP of 8), True Value Score of 2.96

True Value team score = 3.32

Draft picks used – Round 2 and 4

Combo 7 – Caught at the end of a Goalie Run

Filip Gustavsson (goalie ADP of 10), True Value Score of 1.44

Ilya Samsonov (goalie ADP of 12), True Value Score of 0.21

Joseph Woll (goalie ADP of 29), True Value Score of 0.12

True Value team score = 0.59

Draft picks used – round 6, 7, and 14

These combos all provide some security where you may set-and-forget your goalie positions. They have team True Values ranging from 0.59 if you got really unlucky to 4.73 if you hit the lottery with Hellebuyck and Bobrovsky. It is reasonable to assume most Goalie early strategies would hover around a team True Value of 2.5.

Now let’s get into the Zero G case studies to compare:

Case Study #1: Ian Gooding's Binnington Team

14-team multicategory league

Goalies Drafted: Vitek Vanecek (rd 6), Joseph Woll (rd 12), Jordan Binnington (rd 17)

Key Transactions:

Added Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in Week 15.

Dropped Vanecek in Week 15.

Added Semyon Varlamov in Week 25 for fantasy playoffs

Team True Value Score = 4.59

This team wasn’t "full" zeroG as Ian used a pretty early pick on Vanecek (and got burned for it), but he was able to not be stuck on holding him and dropped him for a much better goalie option in Luukkonen midway through the season. One of the benefits of ZeroG is that you don't get too attached to your goalies due to the lack of draft capital you've used on them.

This is an interesting case study showing that you don't need to constantly be adding and dropping goalies in ZeroG. Ian hit the lottery in round 17 drafting Binnington, who finished as the second-most valuable goalie in category leagues according to my True Value Rankings. This happens every season, where non-elite goalies greatly outperform their draft positions, even with just-above-average overall play. Last year Linus Ullmark was often drafted outside of round 10 and put up a historic fantasy (and real) season. The year before it was Jacob Markstrom returning exceptional value. The year before that both Sorokin and Marc-Andre Fleury put up elite value being drafted in rounds 12-14. ZeroG lets you take a shot to see if you can get lucky and snag one of these guys in a given season.

Ian was able to have pretty much the same goalie value as a team that would have drafted Hellebuyck and Bobrovsky (super lucky) with their 3rd and 6th round picks. Ian was able to have similar value AND use his early picks on strong skaters instead. Unfortunately, he missed on a few of these (Timo Meier, Alex DeBrincat, Johnny Gaudreau – sorry Ian!) and wasn't able to take home the championship. He finished second though!

Case Study #2: Ryan Brudner's ZeroG Success Story

12-team multicategory league

Goalies Drafted: Adin Hill (rd 12), Logan Thompson (rd 13), Philipp Grubauer (rd 14)

Key Transactions:

Dropped Grubauer in Week 2.

Added Frederik Andersen in Week 9.

Added Joey Daccord in Week 10.

Added Samsonov in Week 14.

Traded Away Hill in Week 18.

Added Laurent Brossoit in Week 23.

Dropped Daccord in Week 23.

Dropped Samsonov in Week 25.

Team True Value Score = 5.34

I got very lucky with this team posting a higher True Value Score than averaging the top 2 goalies. My transactions turned out to be timed exceptionally well. I avoided Really Bad Weeks with my drops and held on for exceptional stretches. Even Samsonov, who had a very disappointing season, provided me with 7 QWs, 4 SWs, and ZERO RBWs in his 10 active weeks on my team from Week 15 to Week 24. When Andersen returned from injury in Week 21, he posted 6 QWs, 4 SWs and 0 RBWs in his 6 active weeks. I also got great value from Hill before trading him away, after which Logan Thompson outperformed him. Joey Daccord was a popular ZeroG success story, providing consistent value. Brossoit was my cherry on top for the fantasy playoffs, putting up 3 QWs and 1 SW in his 3 active weeks on my team.

This team may be the epitome of getting lucky using ZeroG. I was able to win the championship with the exceptional goalie value alongside using early picks for very strong skaters (Nylander, Josi, Barkov, Forsberg, Konecny).

Case Study #3: Ryan Brudner's ZeroG Disappointment (or is it?)

12-team multicategory league

Goalies Drafted: Philipp Grubauer (rd 14)

Key Transactions:

Dropped Grubauer in Week 2.

Added Anton Forsberg in Week 2.

Added Woll in Week 3.

Dropped Forsberg in Week 4.

Added Luukkonen in Week 4.

Dropped Luukkonen in Week 5.

Added John Gibson in Week 5.

Dropped John Gibson in Week 9.

Added Filip Gustavsson in Week 9.

Added Joey Daccord in Week 9.

Dropped Joey Daccord in Week 10.

Added Samsonov in Week 10.

Dropped Samsonov in Week 14.

Various other Goalie Streams (most unsuccessful)

Team True Value Score = 0.61

This full zeroG approach was a victim to over-management. I was constantly on the waiver wire for goalies, sometimes successfully streaming them, sometimes unsuccessfully. I had no ties to hold onto a goalie for too long, but I missed out on holding onto some value (Daccord, Luukkonen). I also had Samsonov for the opposite time to the team in Case #2, holding him for a few RBWs and dropping him before his great stretch.

Although this story is a disappointment, the team True Value Score is similar to Combo 5 of Sorokin and Georgiev, where a 2nd and 3rd rounder were used. On this team, I was able to use all my picks but 1 on strong skaters. I lucked out in getting 1st overall pick with Connor McDavid, but I was able to snag J.T. Miller in round 2, Artemi Panarin in round 3, Aleksander Barkov in round 4, and Sam Reinhart in round 8. Because I was able to absolutely dominate skater categories, I was able to take home the championship with poor goalie performance. I was actually able to find some Wins and even a shutout in my fantasy playoffs with Logan Thompson, Woll, and a successful Jesper Wallstedt stream. This led to enough categories to take home the win.

So although this team's season in goalie categories was a disappointment, the cost of poor goalies was worth the benefit of strong skaters as the team brought home a championship. I'd much prefer this goalie performance than using a 2nd and 3rd rounder on Sorokin and Georgiev.

Case Study #4: Ian Gooding's ZeroG Disappointment (or is it?)

12-team points deep dynasty league

Goalies Kept: Ville Husso, Anton Forsberg, Mads Sogaard, Pheonix Copley, Cal Petersen

Key Transactions:

Dropped Petersen before the season

Added James Reimer prior to Week 1

Added Jonathan Quick in Week 7

Dropped Reimer in Week 9

Added Joey Daccord in Week 10

Added Nico Daws in Week 14

Dropped Quick in Week 15

Added Anthony Stolarz in Week 23

Team True Value Score = -1.08

Although this is a points league, we can consider this specific strategy for multicategory leagues, where the True Value Score comes in. If this were a category league, this may be the worst goalie strategy we've seen yet, BUT… as Ian wrote in his ramblings, Ian won the league!

This strategy is a real Zero G strategy, not drafting or keeping any good starters, relying fully on adds and drops throughout the season. Ian didn't get so lucky with the timing of his streams, having nine total weeks of his end up as a RBW for the team. He was, however, able to grab Joey Daccord, who ended up as the 16^th-most valuable goalie this season. He also streamed Stolarz (who was the 11th most valuable goalie) in the fantasy playoffs, though Stolarz had a RBW in a crucial Week 25 matchup.

This case study shows the strength of the ZeroG strategy. You can win your league with terrible goaltending! Ian was able to keep David Pastrnak, Artemi Panarin, and William Nylander on his team, propelling him past others with his skaters' performances. I do think that if this was a category league, Ian wouldn't have had as much success, but maybe he would've streamed his goalies differently if so.

Case Study #5: Jonathan Susser's ZeroG Team

12-team points league

Goalies Drafted: Philipp Grubauer (Round 10), Elvis Merzlikins (Round 15)

Key Transactions:

Dropped Grubauer in Week 3

Added Connor Ingram in Week 6

Added Samuel Ersson in Week 6

Added Charlie Lindgren in Week 8

Dropped Ingram in Week 11

Added Woll in Week 20

Added Brossoit in Week 24

Team True Value Score = 2.04

Here we have another points league, where poor goalie performances tend not to hurt as much, but this strategy still yielded a strong True Value Score that would have translated to success in a category league. A similar score to Combo 1, 2, or 3 mentioned in the Full Goalie strategies. If you can get similar value to having Shesterkin and Sorokin (Combo 1), without using any draft capital, I'm sold! The cost to have this goalie performance is basically nothing, sign me up.

Case Study #6: Effortless ZeroG

12-team multicategory league

Goalie Drafted: Andrei Vasilevskiy (Round 7), Cam Talbot, (Round 12), Jonas Johansson (Round 14)

Key Transactions:

Dropped Johansson in Week 4

Added Connor Ingram in Week 4

Dropped Ingram in Week 10

Added David Rittich in Week 12

Added Broissoit in Week 25

Dropped Brossoit in Week 26

Team True Value Score = 3.15

This team is yet another example of how ZeroG does not need to include a vast amount of goalie streams and transactions. This team snagged Vasilevskiy at value due to his injury (though Vasy underperformed expectations). Got lucky holding Cam Talbot all season, who ended as the 7th most valuable goalie and was able to stream Connor Ingram during his peak performance, while not holding onto Johansson for too long.

This team performed well finishing 2nd in his league, unfortunately losing in the Finals (If he kept Brossoit, he would've won!) This True Value Score is similar to Full Goalie Strategy Combo 6 (Shesterkin and Saros). This is yet another successful example of getting great goalie value in a category league without spending draft capital. And in this example, the manager barely had to work the waiver wire.

Summary of Real-World ZeroG strategies

I've always been 100% convinced that ZeroG is a valuable strategy for most points leagues, though I've questioned the value in category leagues, where RBWs and non-QWs really hurt your team. I'm glad that some people were able to share their ZeroG real-world examples to really see if it is a viable strategy. Although there may have been a bias for people to share their success stories, these case studies all point to ZeroG as a clear winner. Even teams that had very poor goalie performances were able to win their championships due to their strong skater performances.

The poor goalie performances are unavoidable sometimes, even if you invest a 2nd and 3rd rounder into them (look at Combo 5 of Sorokin and Georgiev). It is clearly better to keep those valuable early picks to grab skater studs who are less likely to disappoint. One main strength in ZeroG is that you aren't really tied to your drafted goalies and won't have trouble dropping them. If you drafted Sorokin and Georgiev, you are very likely holding onto them all season hoping for them to turn things around. If you drafted Philipp Grubauer in round 14, you have no trouble dropping him in Week 2 for a streaking Cam Talbot. I will definitely be utilizing this strategy for category leagues moving forward.

Hope you enjoyed! Follow me on X @fantasycheddar, where I will answer any questions you may have. Feel free to reach out with your ZeroG strategy as well!