Ramblings: A Free Agent Frenzy for the Ages; Thoughts on the Draft; Slafkovský Extension; Michkov Signs – July 2

Michael Clifford

2024-07-02

Free agency proved to be quite the busy day as CapFriendly let us know that it was the first time in NHL history that over one billion dollars – yes, with a 'B' – was handed out in contracts in a single day. The cap jumping to $88M and then likely rising above $90M next season plays a huge part in that, but there was just an absurd number of transactions.

Luckily, the Dobber editing team had everyone covered and to get a read on all the big deals of the day from Nashville's spending spree to Washington's re-load to whatever it is that Seattle is doing, be sure to go check out our analysis section. At last count, there are 16 articles covering the major signings and trades, with some just being all lumped together like in Nashville.

To cover some of the signings I didn't write about personally, here are some thoughts about the frenzy.

First, I appreciate Nashville really pushing their chips in. There are some contracts that won't look good in 2027, but this team is immensely better offensively today than it was a week ago, and they should now be able to boast two very good scoring lines and likely a third one built around the younger guys like Luke Evangelista and Tommy Novak. It isn't good news for the fantasy values of those young guys, but it is good news for the team itself. Though, they still need a long-term second-line centre and if Novak can get that time, it could be a great year from him, relatively speaking.

It is also not hard to like what Carolina did. They had to let some players walk but they, er, managed to sign Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere at reasonable cap hits to keep the train rolling along. Something tells me they aren't done yet.

One very interesting move is Viktor Arvidsson heading to Edmonton. He has had his injury issues but is a season removed from a 26-goal, 59-point season. He is 31 years old but could very well be heading towards a career year skating next to either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl (my guess is the latter). Arvidsson had a hard time with his shooting percentage for his Los Angeles tenure, and getting those types of centres could see a career year from him, even without top power play time.

Jakob Chychrun ending up in Washington is probably not good for him. John Carlson has the top power play unit on lock and despite some additions, this is not going to be a top scoring team at even strength. Chychrun puts up his peripherals and he can create goals for himself, but this is not the landing spot for him to have career year-type production.

It isn't the move Canucks fans were probably hoping for, but I'm intrigued by Jake DeBrusk in Vancouver. He wasn't signed to be a third liner and there is a lot of talent in the top-6 that can help him produce. His problem will be a lack of top power play time, but I do think there is potential for 25 goals from him. This isn't good news for the Nils Hoglander fans among us, however.  

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Though the Flyers have done very little in the offseason, they did announce that Matvei Michkov has signed his three-year entry-level contract. The Flyers don't have a ton of cap space anyway so they weren't making a big splash, and just adding Michkov to the top-6 is probably more of an impact than any forward they could have signed outside of the very top of the free agent class. I really, really can't wait to watch him and Travis Konecny or Owen Tippett play together.

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There was one big RFA signing on Monday as Juraj Slafkovsky signed an eight-year contract extension with an AAV of $7.6M. That extension kicks in for the 2025-26 season.

As the resident Habs fan, I feel it's my duty to chime in here. It is a big number for a player who has had two seasons, one of which saw him sent to the AHL, but the same thing could have been said of Cole Caufield a year ago and no one is complaining about that contract.

Also, if the salary cap is, say, $91M next season, Slaf's cap hit works out to be about 8.4% of that $91M. In 2023-24, Tim Stützle's cap hit was $8.35M, or 10% of the cap. For a winger comparison, Matt Boldy's cap hit in 2023-24 was $7M, or 8.4% of the cap. If Slafkovský puts up a reasonably productive season without this extension, it's very likely the cap hit is even larger. Fans always want a cheap cap hit, I get that, but this is the first overall pick who had a five-month stretch in his age-19 season where he played to a 59-point pace. If he plays to a 70-point pace in his age-20 season, Montreal is probably looking at an extra million per season if not more. They are banking on continued improvement, and I don't see why they wouldn't.

Also, if Slafkovský turns into a 30-goal, 70-point forward who can put up 200 shots and 150 hits, that's still palatable in cap leagues, so it really isn't that bad. It's a big bet, but one very much worth making.

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I just wanted to offer some draft thoughts. For anyone that missed it, last week I wrote about a handful of draftees (before the big night) including Ivan Demidov, Cole Eiserman, Mac Swanson, and more.

First off, my beloved Habs managed to draft Demidov. Needless to say, this is one of those draft picks that vastly turns around my view of this forward group. They had a very good, young top line, as well as a returning Kirby Dach and hopefuls like Joshua Roy and Owen Beck. However, they were missing that game breaker that would allow them to have two potent scoring lines, and Demidov should be exactly that. This is still a very young group that will need a couple years before turning into a serious playoff threat, but this is poised to be the most important draft pick the team has made since Carey Price.

In general, I thought Calgary made out very well. Getting Zayne Parekh at ninth is a tidy bit of business and Matvei Gridin took a jump in his draft year and is a nice boom-bust pick at the end of the first round. Getting Henry Mews in the third round is one of those picks that we could very well be looking back on in 5-6 years and wonder how he fell that far.

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It sure seems as if the Anaheim Ducks have a type, yeah? Leo Carlsson last year, Beckett Sennecke this year (6'2"), and Stian Solberg 23rd overall. This is a team that is building for size and aggressiveness, but they are certainly stockpiling top talent. This should be a fun team to watch grow over the next few seasons.

With Konsta Helenius going 14th overall, it sure feels like the Buffalo Sabres got a couple long-term pieces in the last two drafts outside of the top-10 pick, having drafted Zach Benson 13th overall last season. I don't agree with the team's buyout of Jeff Skinner, but there's also not a team in the league that can boast the prospect pool they can. If this franchise is serious about pushing for a playoff spot in April of 2025, they should be active on the trading side of things throughout the offseason.

All of Cole Beaudoin, Liam Greentree, EJ Emery, and Sam O'Reilly going in the final 10 picks of the first round was interesting for me. If I were a betting man – and I am – I think there's at least one future all-star in that group. Which one, well, I wish I were that good of a prognosticator, but those are four very talented players that all possess varying levels of high upside.

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I didn't write about the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade when it happened, so I thought I'd chime in now.

Long story short, it feels like Dubois is going to be caught in that rough transition phase for Washington. The team is on its decline even with their recent playoff appearance; they were an awful team that got the right goal scoring at the right time in the regular season to get in. Another year of Alex Ovechkin and TJ Oshie (health pending) at their age, along with Tom Wilson some mediocre depth doesn't change that. They have some nice prospects in the cupboard and made some moves in free agency, but it'll be a few years until the young guys can really make a big fantasy impact. For the next year or two, Dubois will be charged with propping up an aging roster trying to get Ovechkin the all-time goals record. If the team continues with its somewhat split 1A/1B power play, we cannot expect much more than the ~25-goal, ~60-point forward he was in Winnipeg.

This isn't great news for Connor McMichael. As it is, he had to contend with Dylan Strome and a half-season from Evgeny Kuznetsov, and now Dubois has been added. McMichael just signed a two-year extension with the Caps, but he's a player that seems to play fast, counter-attack hockey and that's just not the way the Caps are designed to play now. Add in a roadblock to top minutes in Dubois, and McMichael might have to wait even longer for a real opportunity to break out.

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As for Jakob Markstrom heading to New Jersey, this is the upgrade they needed in net. At the same time, goaltending performance is intricately linked to team defensive performance, so it'll be more on the coaching staff and the skaters than it will be on Markstrom. I have no doubt that even an average defensive Devils side will bring Markstrom to top-12 goaltender status in the fantasy realm, but that's why his ADP will be so important come September. We will see where that lands but I'm optimistic, especially with the team signing Brett Pesce (which I wrote about here).

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I don't have a lot to say about Jake Guentzel's signing in Tampa Bay other than what Ian wrote about Guentzel here. What I will say is this is pretty awful news for Brandon Hagel's fantasy value. He finished the 2023-24 season with as many even strength points as Leon Draisaitl and more even strength points than Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander, or even teammate Brayden Point. However, he was largely kept off the top PP unit and unless they kick Nick Paul off that unit – not sure why they would with it being as successful as it was – it could be another year where Hagel pushes for 70 points when he could have pushed for 90 with top PP time.

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Mikhail Sergachev being traded to Arizona (Ian wrote about that here) isn't the best news for Sean Durzi's fantasy value, but I'm not throwing in the towel just yet. While Durzi isn't on Victor Hedman's level, some of us (present company included) thought that Sergachev was going to take over for Hedman in 2023-24, and that didn't happen. I do think Sergachev gets first crack at the power play, but that is far from a guarantee that he'll hold onto that role. Training camp should be interesting.

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