Welcome back to another week of Analytics Advantage! This week we are going to be focusing on analyzing changes in Individual Points Percentage (IPP) for NHL players. We’ll highlight some players who had impressive 23/24 season improvements and discuss their potential impact in the upcoming campaign.

What is IPP?
Individual Points Percentage (IPP) measures the percentage of goals a player scores or assists on while they are on the ice. It is calculated by dividing the number of points a player has by the number of goals scored while the player is on the ice. This metric helps to evaluate a player’s contribution to their team’s offense.

Why Analyze IPP Changes?
Tracking changes in IPP can provide valuable insights into a player’s development, consistency, and potential for future performance. A significant increase or decrease in IPP can indicate a breakout campaign, a decline, or other underlying factors affecting the player’s performance. However, it’s important to note that IPP isn’t a perfect measure and should be used alongside other metrics. IPP only tells the story from an individual perspective, and some players can be highly productive without having a high IPP. Therefore, it's crucial to consider the context and other performance metrics when evaluating a player’s overall impact.

Data Sources
The data for this analysis was sourced from player statistics spanning the 2019-2024 NHL campaigns, obtained from NaturalStatTrick.

Data Processing
Player statistics from the 2019-2024 campaigns were combined into a single dataset, then filtered for players who played at least 25 games per year to ensure a significant amount of playing time.

Based on the analysis, we identified several players who had an impressive 2023-24 campaign. These players are coming off career years and going into three different situations for the 2024-25 campaign. This analysis doesn't look at any other metrics other than IPP and mostly shows the five-year trend.

Player Highlight: Zach Hyman

Performance Overview:
23/24 stats – 80 GP, 54 G (15 PPG), 23 A

Zach Hyman had a phenomenal year playing with the best playmaking Connor McDavid we have seen to date, and a rollercoaster campaign which had the Oilers having the same record as the Sharks early in the year. This was technically a down year in point production for Hyman, as he had 36 G, 47 A (83 PTS) last year in one less game.

Potential for Upcoming Season:
Hyman is expected to continue his strong play and contribute significantly to his team’s offense. The lower IPP is not because of his production, as he is producing the same amount. What is influencing the IPP value is how many more goals the Oilers are scoring in general. So, if the Oilers have another elite offensive year, Hyman might see an even bigger decrease in IPP. This is a good example of needing to know the context, as you would assume that Hyman is just performing worse than before.

Season-by-Season Performance:
Below is a graphical representation of Zach Hyman‘s IPP over the past five campaigns:

Player Highlight: J.T. Miller

Performance Overview:
23/24 stats – 81 GP, 37 G (10 PPG), 66 A

J.T. Miller just had his best campaign. He showed improvements across almost every single aspect of his game, solidifying his role as a dominant two-way forward that can be relied upon in any situation. The Canucks saw a 180-degree turnaround compared to previous campaigns, and Miller's production and IPP can show that he is a big part of the offense.

Potential for Upcoming Season:
Miller should have another incredible defensive campaign, and most likely not match his point production in 23/24. The Canucks have shed some talent, and even though the talent was partly rentals, it is still a difficult task to recreate what they did last year. They had an incredibly high PDO, which is very difficult to replicate in back-to-back campaigns. J.T. Miller should still be a top-25 point producer in the league.

Season-by-Season Performance:
Below is a graphical representation of J.T. Miller‘s IPP over the past five campaigns:

Player Highlight: Mike Matheson

Performance Overview:
23/24 stats – 82 GP, 11 G, 51 A

Mike Matheson had a massive jump in production, serving as the best defenseman on a draft lottery-contending Montreal Canadiens squad. He recorded many assists on the power play, where he was the first unit’s main puck distributor.

Potential for Upcoming Season:
Matheson should see a drop in production as many defensive prospects in the Montreal system are expected to make the jump this year, most notably Lane Hutson. With the likely reduction in power play time, Matheson’s production will see a significant drop.

Season-by-Season Performance:
Below is a graphical representation of Mike Matheson‘s IPP over the past five campaigns:

Thank you for reading and have a great rest of your day!
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