Ramblings: Players to Watch for the 2024-25 Campaign (July 22)

Brennan Des

2024-07-22

It’s that time of year again! Dobber’s 2024-25 Fantasy Guide is just a week away. In it you'll find everything you need to secure a fantasy championship for the upcoming campaign. Player projections, sleeper candidates, advanced stat breakdowns and so much more! Order your copy here and cruise your way to victory.

In today's Ramblings, we'll discuss a few players that seem primed for success in the upcoming season. 

Seth Jones

Chicago's projected roster for the 2024-2025 campaign features a lot more forward talent than it did last year. They've added Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen through free agency but will also get a boost from a healthy Taylor Hall, who missed most of last year with an injury. With all this new talent up front, it's hard to say which wingers will be placed in the most favourable roles (i.e., on the top power-play unit and beside Connor Bedard at even strength).

Bedard is a lock for the top unit. That leaves three forward spots on the PP and four potential candidates. Hall has shown elite offensive ability earlier in his career, but not so much in recent years. As such, there's an argument for him to play with the top group, but it isn't quite a no-brainer. Teravainen falls into a similar category, although his offensive success is more recent than Hall's. Kurashev's argument centers around his chemistry with Bedard, while Bertuzzi's hinges on his unique net-front ability.

Now, instead of trying to guess which forwards end up in the best situations, it might make sense to target the defenseman whose improved role is slightly more secure: Seth Jones. Not only will he benefit from sharing the ice with better players, but his claim to power-play time is more concrete than the team's wingers. Jones has seen nearly 70% of Chicago's total time with the man advantage in each of the three seasons he's been with the team. Sure, the results haven't been spectacular over the past two years, but he also suffered from a subpar supporting cast. From a financial perspective, Jones is Chicago's biggest investment on paper right now, so it makes sense that they'd put him in situations where he can produce, to maximize return on that investment. Kevin Korchinski may threaten Jones for offensive opportunity in the future, but I don't think he'll be ready to take that step this season as a 20-year-old sophomore.

Instead of taking a gamble on Chicago's wingers, whose roles remain up in the air right now, it might make sense to bet on the indirect beneficiary of the team's offseason moves – Seth Jones. With an improved supporting cast, Jones has great potential to return to the 50–60-point range.  

Aaron Ekblad

With Brandon Montour out of the picture in Florida, either Aaron Ekblad or Gustav Forsling should step up as the team's top power-play defenseman. I expect Ekblad will get that role because he has more experience manning the Panthers' top unit. During the 21-22 season, he posted a 77-point pace while seeing 70% of Florida's time with the man advantage. Similar opportunity could lead to similar production this year.

Tommy Novak

Entering the fourth year of his NHL career, 27-year-old Tommy Novak is set to see a massive upgrade in linemate quality. Last season, he spent most of his minutes beside Luke Evangelista and Mark Jankowski, who have 79 career goals combined. His new projected linemates Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos both reached the 40-goal mark last season, giving them more goals in one season than Novak's former linemates had in their whole careers. Obviously Evengelista is still young and improving, but the point remains relevant as we're talking about the current state of all these players.

Despite his attractive new role, Novak's fantasy stock should still be discounted in upcoming drafts as he paced for just 52 points last year – a significant drop from the previous year's pace of 69. He's unlikely to see top unit power-play time, which limits his value, but there's still room for his overall role to grow as he skated just 14 minutes last year. More time beside higher-quality players should help him improve on last year's output, even with secondary power-play minutes.

William Eklund

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With all eyes in San Jose focused on Macklin Celebrini this season, some other promising Sharks are likely to fall under the radar. Eklund, the seventh overall pick of the 2021 draft, is a name that stands out because he's already proven he can produce in the NHL. His overall output from last season is modest, but a closer look reveals he put up 20 points in his final 24 appearances, which translates to 68 points over 82 games. He's set to see a prominent role this season, at both even strength and on the power play.  

Jake Neighbours 

Last year, in his first full NHL season, the 22-year-old forward posted a modest 40-point pace. While that in itself is encouraging, a closer look reveals that he was especially productive down the stretch when he was given an expanded role. In his first 40 games, Neighbours skated less than 15 minutes a night, saw just 25% of St. Louis' total time with the man advantage, and tallied just 15 points. In his final 37 outings, he racked up 23 points while skating nearly 17 minutes a night and seeing a 58% share of power-play time. That favourable deployment he saw in the second half represents the kind of action he should see during the upcoming campaign. Drafted 26th overall in 2020, Neighbours is developing quickly and should take another step forward this year. 

Justin Faulk 

With news that Torey Krug could miss the entirety of the 2024-25 campaign if his ankle injury requires surgery, the Blues could very well have a new defenseman on their top power-play unit for the upcoming season. Scott Perunovich is one of the top candidates for that role given his offensive upside. However, considering he only has 73 NHL games under his belt and the results haven't been particularly spectacular thus far, it may take some time for him to earn that role. In my mind, the blueliner most likely to start out on PP1 for St. Louis is Justin Faulk. He has experience manning a top power-play unit from his days in Carolina and he's frequently flirted with a 50-point pace throughout his career. He's scored at a high rate in St. Louis despite mostly playing a secondary role with the man advantage. If Krug ends up missing the year, increased offensive opportunity could help Faulk challenge 60 points for the first time in his career. 

Victor Olofsson

With Vegas' top nine looking vastly different from last year, it remains to be seen where new forward acquisitions will fit into the new roster. As it stands, Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev and Pavel Dorofeyev seem locked into top-six winger roles, leaving a final spot for one of Victor Olofsson, Alexander Holtz or Brendan Brisson. While Holtz and Brisson are young and seem to have the most upside, there's no rush for them to realize their potential right away. It might make sense for both players to start out in more sheltered third line roles, where they should have space to develop their games. That sets the stage for Olofsson to snag that final spot in the top six. 

Among the three candidates listed above, Olofsson has the most experience and success in the NHL. He's reached the 20-goal mark three times in his five seasons, flirting with a 60-point pace twice. Despite his offensive upside, he fell out of favour in Buffalo recently due to his defensive deficiencies. Reduced to less than 12 minutes a night in a depth role last year, he scored at a shocking 24-point pace. As a result of last season's struggles, his fantasy value is likely low right now, leaving lots of room for him to outperform his cost at the draft table. A fresh start in Vegas should bring Olofsson more ice time, but also more exposure to higher quality players.

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