Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

With most of the elite free agents now signed, we can start to get a general idea of what lineups might look like for the upcoming NHL season. Following last week's article on players whose value has increased post free agency, I decided to switch gears and cover those whose value has decreased. I’ll follow up this article with Part 2 on players whose value increased next week. So here we go:

Simon Nemec

Before we begin, I want to be very clear that Nemec is an exceptional talent with a bright future ahead of him with the Devils organization. Nonetheless, the New Jersey Devils had a clear objective this offseason—fortify their backend to handle any challenges in the upcoming season. After suffering nearly 300 man-games lost to injury and other issues last year, the front office made sure to add depth with key acquisitions like Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon to help the young d-core.

With these new additions, expect Nemec to slot into a third-pairing role rather than the second-pairing minutes he enjoyed when Dougie Hamilton was sidelined last season. Hamilton and Luke Hughes will dominate the power-play time, leaving Nemec very few opportunities in that department. In 2023-24, Nemec ranked third in ice time among Devils defensemen, averaging 19:52 per game. So, he is primed for an increased role, albeit likely on the penalty kill rather than the power play. He contributed 19 points (three goals, 16 assists) last season, splitting time between special teams. Since his 2022 draft, Nemec has shown significant growth in his defensive game, hinting at his potential as a reliable two-way defenseman. Despite this, Nemec’s offensive capabilities are clearly evident, and his powerful shot makes him a valuable asset. I just don't see how the Devils will squeeze Nemec into the mix this upcoming season in a way that would make him a valuable fantasy asset.

Yaroslav Askarov and Luke Evangelista

This could easily apply to nearly all of the Nashville Predators’ prospects currently in the mix. First up is Askarov. He was once seen as the heir apparent in goal for Nashville, but with the Predators re-signing Juuse Saros to a long-term deal, Askarov's path to the NHL now stretches at least another year or two.

From a fantasy perspective, Askarov’s value with the Predators has dipped, though his potential as a goaltender remains high. Now that we’re well into the offseason, most free agents, including netminders, have found their new homes. Barry Trotz has indicated he’s open to offers for Askarov, with a hefty asking price. The Predators are in no urgency to move Askarov as he is still signed for one more year and is also exempt from waivers. However, if Askarov is traded to a team in need of a franchise goaltender, his fantasy stock could rise. Until that trade happens, though, Askarov owners will have to sit and wait.

Next, let's talk about Evangelista. All signs point to him anchoring the third-line right wing for the Predators this upcoming season. There’s potential for a shift in his role if injuries strike within the top-six or if he has a breakout year. However, for now, do not expect to see him higher than a third-line spot.

At 22, Evangelista wrapped up his rookie season with a modest 16 goals and 39 points in 80 games—a solid start that underscores his potential as a future key player for the Predators. Despite his strong rookie performance, the major additions of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault put a damper on Evangelista's ability to get more ice time. Marchessault's four-year deal secures him a top-six spot, while Gustav Nyquist, another top-six winger, is in the final year of his contract and will be 35 by next season's start.

With 104 games already under his belt, Evangelista is ahead of many second-year players who face the proverbial sophomore slump. The 2024-25 season is pivotal for the Predators, and Evangelista will play a key role in their success. It seems unlikely that he will crack a top-six role. However, keep an eye on him—if he maintains his current trajectory, he could become a significant force for Nashville in the near future.

Ryker Evans

Let me first say that Vince Dunn is the de facto power-play quarterback and number one defenseman on the Seattle Kraken. Last year, he put up 46 points in 59 games, a 64-point pace over 82 games. Over the past two years, he has been the second-leading scorer on the team behind Jared McCann. Glad we got that out of the way. Now, while he was injured for 23 games this past season, Evans had the opportunity to get some serious ice time that allowed him to understand the NHL and the speed of the game. It would have been nice to be eased in and slowly learn the ropes from players like Dunn and Adam Larsson, but sometimes you don't get a choice in how that happens.

This season may have been that chance, and he would be playing a less significant role but still some meaningful minutes. However, with the acquisition of Bradon Montour, Evans is pushed further down the lineup, and his chances of playing meaningful minutes are diminished further. Unless another injury creates a major gap in the D-corps, I don't really see Evans getting the time on ice he got when Dunn was out of the lineup.

Lukas Reichel

It’s been a tough couple of years for Reichel. The potential is still there, but his value has taken a hit from the time he was first drafted. Since then, he has shown signs of struggling to adjust to the fast-paced gameplay in the NHL. All signs indicate that he is still a part of the Blackhawks’ long-term plan. However, with the influx of major off-season signings by Kyle Davidson, things are starting to look a little a little crowded. With the major signings of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, you can pretty much lock down the first line with Connor Bedard, which leaves Reichel as the odd man out.

We are still unsure of Taylor Hall’s progress and where he potentially slots in. Philipp Kurashev had a solid year playing next to Bedard whenever he had the chance, and I can see Andreas Athanasiou also being a mainstay on the second line. So, the second line is still up for grabs. Regardless of that, this is a team where the first line is where you can expect to get most of your fantasy value.

If your player is not playing next to Bedard, you're cooked. Reichel's chances of playing next to Bedard this year are very slim but not out of the realm of possibility. We will still see a lot of line blender situations with Richardson, but the question remains: How far down the pecking order is Reichel when it comes to making the first line? I think he is pretty far down. Reichel needs to make a very solid impression in training camp if he wants to get that prime time with Bedard.

Thanks for reading and see you next week! Follow me on X  @Punters_hockey for more content and fantasy hockey analysis.