Ramblings: Oilers Drop Ceci & Get Vasily; Goalies to Target & Avoid in One-Year Leagues (Aug 19)
Brennan Des
2024-08-19
On Sunday – with roughly a day left before they respond to St. Louis' offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway – the Oilers made separate, but possibly related deals. Edmonton sent a 2025 fourth-round draft (originally Ottawa's) to Vancouver in exchange for Vasily Podkolzin. Drafted 10th overall in 2019, Podkolzin hasn't made much of an impact in the NHL thus far, totalling just 35 points over 137 appearances. Despite playing a fair number of games, he hasn't really seen that much opportunity, skating just 11-12 minutes a night and spending more time in the AHL than the NHL last year. The problem is, it's hard to envision him in a bigger role with Edmonton as the Oilers' top-six is already overflowing with talent. He seems destined for a bottom-six role again, which doesn't leave much room for an increase in ice time. He racked up nearly four hits per game last year, so he should add a fair bit of grit to Edmonton's bottom-six. This could be the fresh start he needs to regain confidence and earn a consistent role in the NHL. Adding Podkolzin might also make it easier for Edmonton to stomach losing Holloway to St. Louis' offer sheet. The former brings a modest salary of $1 million, but Holloway's pending AAV is more than double that.
Edmonton wasn't done there as they proceeded to work out a swap with the Sharks, sending Cody Ceci and a 2025 third-round pick to San Jose for Ty Emberson. By all accounts, Emberson is an underrated defenseman who bolsters Edmonton's defensive depth – although he probably won't be relevant in most fantasy leagues. Getting Ceci's $3.25 million cap hit off the books also gives Edmonton more space to match the Broberg offer sheet.
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In today's Ramblings, I thought I'd share some thoughts about goalies in one-year leagues. As you've probably heard before, goaltending performances can vary greatly from one season to the next. As a result of this reality, I usually avoid using high-draft picks on big-game netminders because there's so much room for disappointment – although there's one name I might make an exception for this year. Without further ado, here are a few netminders I'll be targeting, as well as a few I'll be avoiding.
Goalies to Target
Jake Oettinger – Dallas Stars
An elite goaltender in his prime playing behind a high-end team. Oettinger's fantasy stock is likely lower than it should be right now as a result of last year's underwhelming .905 SV% and 2.72 GAA. However, he was excellent in his most recent action, winning 10 of his final 11 regular season starts and posting a 1.54 GAA and .941 SV% in the process. He was also solid in the playoffs, posting a 2.24 GAA and .915 SV% through 19 games. I think he should be one of the first three goalies off the board in most formats, but expect he'll fall outside just outside of that group due to last year's lacklustre totals.
Adin Hill – Vegas Golden Knights
I've mentioned previously how injuries and subsequent second half struggles marred what was an incredible first half from Hill last year. Although we haven't seen him carry the high-volume workload associated with your typical starter, he's posted solid numbers across a large sample now. Over the past five seasons, Hill boasts a .912 SV% and 2.65 GAA over 119 games. Among the 84 goalies who played at least 50 games during that span, only 18 had a better GAA and only 15 had a better SV%. That's especially impressive when you consider about half of Hill's appearances in that time were behind non-playoff teams in Arizona and San Jose.
Vegas has an excellent defensive core, highlighted by Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin and Alex Pietrangelo, but also bolstered by numerous defensively reliable forwards. If he can stay healthy – and that's a big if – Hill should provide massive, sneaky value in fantasy formats. It's reassuring to hear that he's been working with doctors this summer to figure out how he might be able to avoid injury in the upcoming campaign.
Filip Gustavsson – Minnesota Wild
Minnesota was one of the top defensive teams last year, sporting the league's fourth-lowest expected goals against (via NaturalStatTrick). The roster didn't change much this summer, so the Wild should be able to carry strong defensive play into the upcoming campaign. Although Gustavsson posted abysmal numbers last year, I'm willing to chalk that up to growing pains as the 26-year-old netminder entered last season with just 66 NHL games under his belt. He's just one season removed from posting a brilliant 2.10 GAA and .931 SV% through 39 games in 2022-23. I think last year's struggles lowered his fantasy stock massively, leaving plenty of room for him to outperform expectations at his current price.
Joseph Woll – Toronto Maple Leafs
I mentioned Woll in an article earlier this summer when discussing players who were hindered by injury last year. His numbers before suffering a high ankle sprain were much better than his numbers afterwards, suggesting that a clean bill of health is all that's separating him from a strong year. I think that injury prevented widespread recognition of Woll's true fantasy value, leaving his fantasy stock at a lower place than it should be right now. However, that just leaves more room for you to get a discount at the draft table. Adding Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson makes Toronto better defensively, setting up an even better situation for Woll this year.
Goalies to Avoid
Dustin Wolf – Calgary Flames
While Wolf is one of the league's most promising young goalies, I think the upcoming campaign is going to be more of a developmental year as he continues to adjust to the NHL level. We have to remember that he's just 23 years old with only 18 games of experience in the big league. He's posted strong results in the AHL over the past three years, which increases confidence that his high-end ability will eventually translate to the NHL. However, looking at the quality of Calgary's roster right now, I can't help but feel like Wolf will have his work cut out for him in the short term. Labelling him as a goalie to avoid is more an indictment of the team he plays for than it is of his own ability. All that said, Wolf is clearly the most talented of Calgary's goalies and should see a high volume of action this year. If GAA and SV% are important in your fantasy format, you should probably steer clear. However, if your league rewards starts and saves, Wolf might be worth considering.
Cam Talbot – Detroit Red Wings
I've voiced my concerns about Talbot throughout the summer, but I'll say again that I'm wary of his outlook as he moves from a strong defensive team to a weak one. He'll get starts but I don't see him posting good numbers behind a Detroit team that had the eighth highest expected goals against per game last year and arguably got worse defensively after losing Jake Walman and adding a defensive liability in Vladimir Tarasenko.
Sergei Bobrovsky – Florida Panthers
You'd have to be an absolute buffoon to doubt the goalie that backstopped his team to a Stanley Cup last year. Fortunately, I'm an absolute buffoon.
Given Bobrovsky's strong regular season numbers last year, as well as his strong play for most of the 2024 playoffs, he's likely one of the first five or six goalies of the draft board. However, I see many potential reasons for him to fall short of the expectations that come with such a high pick.
For starters, there's the idea of wear and tear. Thanks to deep playoff runs these past two years, Bobrovsky has played a league-leading 215 games over the past three seasons. He'll be turning 36 in a month, so back-to-back shortened summers could take a toll and result in him playing at less than 100% this year. Another concern I have is that Bobrovsky's individual numbers have been far from consistent in recent years. Before posting a .915 SV% last year, he'd posted a .902, .913, ,906, and .900. Not only is that more volatile than other top tier netminders, but it doesn't feature the lofty heights that those other guys have reached. My final concern with Bobrovsky is that the Panthers' defensive corps doesn't look as strong as last year following the departures of Bradon Montour and OEL. If I'm using a high draft pick on a goalie, I need some elements of certainty. From my perspective, there's too much risk associated with Bob this year.