The Wild West – Core Four – Part One
Grant Campbell
2024-08-19
Last year, we ran a four-part series on each team in the Western Conference and who we considered the Core Four.
The Core Four are the players from each roster, who should be the foundation for their team to build off of over the next three to five years.
The core should be a snapshot of the franchise at a particular time and should reflect where the team is at in terms of competing for the Stanley Cup. The ideal core should be between 22 and 27 years of age and either approaching their peak or in the midst of it.
Teams with younger cores who are still prospects, should be in their rebuild or retool phase. Teams with older cores are more than likely approaching the closing of their competitive windows and if they don’t have the younger prospects becoming potential core members they could be in trouble.
Anaheim Ducks
Leo Carlsson (F) (19.6 years of age)
Carlsson has played just 55 NHL games and is pencilled in as a top-six center for the Ducks in 2024-25. The 2nd overall pick from 2023 will need to improve in the faceoff circle (34.8%). He wasn't sheltered as a rookie (49.6% OZ starts) and averaged over 18 minutes per game which is a very good sign.
Mason McTavish (F) (21.5)
McTavish improved his faceoff winning percentage to 51.7 from 42.3 in his rookie year. He improved his points per game from 0.54 to 0.66 and his time on the ice from 15:22 to 16:17. He doesn't have the offensive ceiling of Leo Carlsson, but he should be a solid second line center or top-six winger. I think he tops out at 25-30 goals and 40-45 assists, but he should be a big piece of this roster for the foreseeable future.
Pavel Mintyukov (D) (20.7)
Mintyukov was a little further along than Olen Zellweger in 2023-24 and played 63 games and ended up with 28 points (0.44/g). He averaged 18:51 per game and played 39.9% of the time on the power play. As Mintyukov and Zellweger improve, it should take ice time and power play time away from Cam Fowler. Mintyukov also had 85 hits and 66 blocks and is a likely candidate for 100/100 sooner than later.
Trevor Zegras (F) (23.4)
Zegras had an injury-plagued 2023-24 in which he played just 31 games and put up 15 points (0.48/g). There are some concerns with his overall play and there are rumors that he might be traded. His time on the ice went from 18:50 to 17:05, his power play time went from 61.2% to 53.5% and he didn't progress in the face off circle (38.4%). The Ducks need the player who was around 0.8 points per game and seemed to be on the verge of becoming a point per game player. The one positive for Zegras was that his OZ starts went from 66.2% to 54.9% and his defensive play didn't seem to suffer.
Calgary Flames
Dustin Wolf (G) (23.3)
It is never ideal for a team to have a goalie as a core piece who has only 18 NHL games on his resume. He hasn't earned it yet, but he will need to in 2024-25. In three AHL seasons, Wolf has a record of 95-31-10 with a save percentage above 92.5. He doesn't need to be that good in Calgary, but he will need to be better than the 7-7-1 record with an 89.3 save percentage. He could be an outside rookie of the year candidate.
MacKenzie Weegar (D) (30.6)
Weegar has passed Rasmus Andersson in overall value to the Flames. He had 20 goals and 52 points in 82 games in 2023-24 to go along with 194 hits and 200 blocks while averaging 22:56 a night. In his last 21 games he had 18 points of which seven were on the power play. His power play percentage went from 18.7 to 38.7 while Andersson's went from 56.8 to 47.3.
Nazem Kadri (F) (33.9)
With the departure of Elias Lindholm, Kadri has become the current number one center on the Flames. His points per game increased from 0.68 to 0.91 and more importantly he has played 82 games in back to back seasons. His ice time went from 17:13 to 18:26 and his power play time went from 56.3 to 61.7 percent. One would think that the Flames don't want a 34 year old to be a core player for very long but outside of Connor Zary there isn't much internal choice in the next season or two.
Yegor Sharangovich (F) (26.2)
When the Flames traded for Sharangovich I didn't envision that he would even be an option to become a core piece in Calgary. Combine a severe lack of options on this roster and 31 goals and 59 points in 82 games (0.72/g) and here we are. His ice time increased from 14:25 in New Jersey to 17:19 in Calgary and his shots on goal went from 1.7/g to 2.2. In his last 60 games he had 26 goals and 23 assists (0.82/g).
Chicago Blackhawks
Connor Bedard (F) (19.1)
The Calder Trophy winner from 2023-24 could almost count as two or three pieces of the Blackhawks' core at this point, as there is little on this roster that has proven that they can be here. He had 22 goals and 61 points in 68 games (0.9/g) and averaged 3.0 shots per game while playing 19:47 per game. He will need to improve in the face off circle (38.9%) and improve his consistency without the puck but he showed some flashes of brilliance and left little doubt that he is worth the hype.
Seth Jones (D) (29.9)
Jones hasn't averaged less than 24 minutes per night since 2016-17 when he played 23:24 per game with Columbus. He probably won't dip under that for the next four or five seasons. His point production has settled in between 0.46 and 0.51 per game but he has had three seasons above 0.6. In his three seasons with Chicago, his power play share has been between 67 and 68 percent. If Kevin Korchinski can get an opportunity and run with it, Jones could see his power play time plummet.
Kevin Korchinski (D) (20.2)
After just 15 points in 76 games and all sorts of issues defensively, it might have been better for Korchinski to get 20-30 AHL games before becoming a regular in the NHL. The Blackhawks need him to become an offensive top-four defender who can put up 40-50 points in this league and play more than 20 minutes per game. He produced just three assists at even strength in 76 games and will need to vastly improve on that.
Artyom Levshunov (D) (18.8)
The 2nd overall pick in 2024 has the size and temperament to become a top-four defender in the NHL. He is a coveted right shot defender who can provide offense and play a physical game (think 100/100) with 40-50 points. It might not happen right away as a rookie, but he should be a fixture on the Blackhawks and with Jones on the roster as well, they could provide a pretty formidable right side for a few years.
Colorado Avalanche
Nathan MacKinnon (F) (29.0)
With back-to-back 100 point seasons, it's hard to believe that MacKinnon didn't reach that plateau until his 10th NHL campaign. Not only is he a Core Four for Colorado but I would consider him the same for the whole of the NHL. He also had 50 goals for the first time and has seen his power play share reach an all-time high of 81.8%, which is up from 75.7 the year prior. There is a trend in the NHL, that teams are letting their superstars stay on the power play for increasing amounts of time. As the way of two defenders on the power play went, splitting the first and second units 50/50 is going.
Mikko Rantanen (F) (27.8)
As it stands now, Rantanen is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of 2024-25. He's an incredibly important piece of this roster and I'd be shocked if he moved on. Over the past four seasons he's been between 1.23 and 1.3 points per game and has averaged between 3.4 and 3.7 shots on goal per game. His consistency is impressive.
Cale Makar (D) (25.8)
In what some considered a less than stellar 2023-24, Makar still managed a career-high 90 points with 21 goals in 77 games. I'd hate to see what he can do in a really good season. Unlike MacKinnon and Rantanen who hovered around 82-83 percent on the power play, Makar was capped at 74.4, so there might be some more offense there. In 315 career games he has averaged 1.07 points per game while playing 24:33 per game. He should be a top-three Norris Trophy candidate for the next four or five years if healthy.
Devon Toews (D) (30.5)
I don't think that there is any doubt that Toews benefits from playing with Makar 67.7% of the time at even strength. He has had between 50 and 57 points three years in a row, while averaging between 23 and 25 minutes per game. He has had between 30.1 and 38.1 percent of Colorado's total power play time and has produced between 43 and 45 even strength points in that period. He is a big piece of the puzzle in Colorado still.
Dallas Stars
The Stars might have one of the strongest Core Four groups in the NHL as there are at least six bonafide players who should be here.
Jake Oettinger (G) (25.7)
Oettinger is still relatively young for an NHL goaltender and he already has a career record of 113-48-23 with a save percentage of 91.3 and a goals saved above average of 44.3. 2023-24 was perhaps his weakest year in the NHL and he still won 35 games, with a 90.5 save percentage and a GSAA of 4.88. He was better in the playoffs with a record of 10-7-2, 91.5 SV% and 6.05 GSAA. He has won 30 games three years in a row and if healthy he should duplicate that for the next five or six seasons.
Miro Heiskanen (D) (25.1)
Heiskanen is surely a better NHL defender than his fantasy stats dictate. He had 54 points in 71 games (0.76/g) but he doesn't hit much and has never had 100 blocks (97, 96 and 92 the last three years). He averaged 24-25 minutes per game and played 70 percent of the time on the powerplay. His offense should be what it was in 2022-23 when he had 73 points in 79 games. Anything less feels like a disappointment, but that is just coming from a greedy fantasy hockey owner.
Wyatt Johnston (F) (21.3)
Johnston solidified his spot here in 2023-24 with 32 goals and 33 assists in 82 games (0.79/g) while playing 17 minutes per game and just 38.5% of the time on the power play. His face off percentage improved from 43.3 to 50.2 and he has penned in a role on the Stars top-six for the next while. Is there another offensive tier he can reach? If he can get some more power play time on a team that puts out two pretty solid units, then he could be a point-per-game player sooner than later.
Jason Robertson (F) (25.1)
Robertson has 1.08 points per game in 292 career games and has had a 109-point season in 2022-23. He had a bit of a come down in 2023-24 but still managed 29 goals and 51 assists in 82 games. His shots on goal per game went from 3.8 to 2.8 which is a fairly significant amount. His career average is 3.1 so the aberration was more than likely the 3.8. He should be the offensive leader on this team for a few more years, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Stars value a player like Roope Hintz a little more for his overall game.
Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15