Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is available in the Dobber Shop! The nice thing is that because it is digital-only, updates can be made as news changes, and there certainly are a lot every week.

Our French version of the Guide, Le Guide des Poolers, is also available via this link.

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1. In Thursday’s Ramblings, we went over the case for and against a handful of defencemen in fantasy this year. A lot of this is based off ADPs, and not just whether a player is likely (or not) to have a good season. A good season for the seventh centre off the board is not the same as a good season from the 27^th centre off the board. So, let's check out some forwards:

Jack Eichel (VGK-C)
Yahoo: 40, C12
Underdog: 46.3, C11
Fantrax: 28.4, C9

Case For: Across the last two seasons, Eichel is over a point per game (1.03) and has averaged nearly four shots per game (3.9). Though he doesn’t bring much for hits, he does have 117 blocks in his last 130 games, so he offers a good total to that category despite being a forward. Add that to his prolific shooting, and there is a guy here that can go 40-50 with 300 shots and 70 blocks if he can manage an 80-game season. Despite some losses to the Vegas lineup, there is still Mark Stone, William Karlsson, Tomas Hertl, and good puck-movers on the blue line.

Case Against: Even as he’s moved beyond his neck injury, Eichel has had a tough time staying healthy, missing 19 games last year and 15 the year before. It might be fine for head-to-head formats as long as he’s healthy in March and April, but that hurts his roto and points value a lot. Jonathan Marchessault is gone and Stone has had trouble staying healthy himself. There is some uncertainty with the Vegas lineup and how they’ll perform offensively, and Eichel’s own health issues make for some question marks here.

Verdict: Once the top five centres are off the board, there are only so many names that can be top-5 centres in multi-category formats. Eichel is one of them and does not require a top-25 pick. If I’m someone who plays in several leagues – and I am – I would draft him a couple times without going all-in. (sept13)

2. Mika Zibanejad (NYR-C)

Yahoo: 75.6, C27
Underdog: 86.6, C19
Fantrax: 55.9, C16

Case For: Even as New York leaned more on the Vincent Trocheck line in 2023-24, Zibanejad still skated 19:45 per game, basically in line with the prior two seasons (19:48). Going into last season, his three-year average shooting percentage was 14.4% but he shot just 11.8%, his lowest mark since 2016-17. The team has been looking for his right winger for years now, and may have found just that in Reilly Smith (depending on how they deploy him). Zibanejad is still a lock for a top PP unit that is usually very good, too. He has also missed just two games across the last four seasons.

Case Against: A shooting percentage drop could also be a sign of age-related decline, as that’s something that can go for players, particularly ones that thrive on shooting from distance like Zibanejad does. If Smith doesn’t work out as his right winger, the team could still be in trouble in finding someone to complete that line, and that might mean even more ice time going to Trocheck’s trio. Zibanejad also saw a shots/game decline of about 10%, and if that persists, he doesn’t bring much in multi-cat formats.

Verdict: This is a clear case where ADP matters. I am not taking Zibanejad as the 16^th centre off the board, as on Fantrax; that site has names like Vincent Trocheck and Joel Eriksson Ek going over a round later and that seems like a better idea in multi-cat leagues. However, taking him as the 20^th-25^th centre off the board on Yahoo or Underdog feels like fine value. (sept13)

3. Matt Boldy (MIN-W)

Yahoo: 73.5, LW24
Underdog: 42.6, W21
Fantrax: 45.4, RW9

Case For: In his three seasons, Boldy has an 84^th percentile goal-scoring rate on a per-minute basis, and an 86^th percentile shot rate. He has seen his ice time increase each season he’s been in the league and averaged 19:17 per game from December 1^st onward last season. If he is a 19- to 20-minute winger, including skating on Minnesota’s top PP unit, he is a 30-40 player with three shots per game as a reasonable expectation. Of course, there is a lot of upside beyond that, and he could be a 40-goal scorer if all goes well. At 23 years old with over 200 games under his belt, he’s just entering his prime, too.

Case Against: In multi-cat formats, things could be tough sledding. He isn’t quite the elite shot-volume option that Cole Caufield is, he won’t rack up the hits like Timo Meier, and he’s not guaranteed to stay on the top line with Kirill Kaprizov as the team looks to deepen its scoring options.

Verdict: Taking him as a top-10 right winger on Fantrax feels steep, though a top-20 left winger on Yahoo is very palatable. (sept13)

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4. As mentioned regarding forwards above, here are a few cases for and against with regard to defensemen:

Quinn Hughes (VAN-D)
Yahoo: 19.8, D2
Underdog: 42.7, D5
Fantrax: 25.7, D5

Case For: The case for Hughes is pretty straightforward: he has had three consecutive years of an improving points-per-game rate, reaching 92 points in 2023-24. He doesn’t turn 25 years old until October and is a clear 24- to 25-minute guy with top power play time on a playoff team. The elder Hughes has found a groove in the NHL to where he won the Norris Trophy last season and has cemented himself among the top-10 defencemen in the league (in real terms). In points-only fantasy formats, there is an argument for taking Hughes as the top fantasy defenceman off the board, and most certainly no lower than the third defenceman.

Case Against: The case against Hughes is pretty straightforward, too: he just doesn’t not bring many peripherals in multi-cat leagues. The 2023-24 campaign was the first time he reached 80 games in any of the last three seasons, playing all 82, and he still didn’t crack 200 shots. Hughes also had just 29 hits and 55 blocks, giving him about one-third fewer hits than Adam Fox, and fewer than half the blocks despite more games played. Hughes also shot a career-high 8.5% against a three-year average of 4.5%, and Vancouver had the highest team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 in an 82-game season for any team since 2007.

Verdict: Hughes is frequently a top-5 fantasy defenceman off the board in multi-cat formats. In 2023-24, he was the fourth overall defenceman in standard Yahoo! leagues and that format doesn’t include hits. Barring changes in peripheral production, that tells us what he needs to do to be a top-5 fantasy defenceman in banger formats. It just doesn’t seem as if there’s value in multi-cat formats. (sept12)

5. Noah Dobson (NYI-D)

Yahoo: 62.7, D10
Underdog: 52.5, D7
Fantrax: 41.7, D8

Case For: Dobson is the unquestioned top defenceman on the New York Islanders’ roster. Even in the second half under new coach Patrick Roy, when the team’s blue line got healthy, Dobson was pushing 23 minutes a night on average. He has three straight seasons of double-digit goals, three straight seasons of at least 100 blocks, and finally surpassed a hit per game with 84 in 79 contests last season. His 5.7% shooting in 2023-24 was right in line with his 6.2% shooting as a three-year average, too. While his individual points percentage (IPP, or rate he garnered a point on Islanders goals) at 5-on-5 was 50.7%, the team’s shooting percentage with him on the ice at 5-on-5 was slightly lower than it was in 2022-23, and that led to fewer overall goals. Pullback in his IPP can be outweighed, to some degree, by an increase in team goal scoring.

Case Against: Though skating nearly 23 minutes a game down the stretch is still a good sign, he skated a whopping 26 minutes a game up until the All-Star break. Injuries on the Islanders blue line led to him getting a pile of minutes, and when they got healthy, he went from Rasmus Dahlin-type usage to Vince Dunn-type usage. He started the year with 52 points in 49 games with all that ice time, and that fell to 18 points in 29 games after the All-Star break (removing one game where he got injured in his second shift). The ice-time decline hurt his block and shot totals, too, and if he’s the guy he was post-All-Star break rather than the guy he was beforehand, he’s not a top-10 fantasy defenceman.

Verdict: Dobson is probably fine enough to take around the 10^th defenceman off the board because of his role, consistency, and peripheral production, but much higher than that brings a lot of risk to a player that is going to see a significant usage drop. (sept12)

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6. Some news items:

In case you missed it, Luke Hughes is expected to need 6-8 weeks of recovery time as a result of an offseason left shoulder injury. That timeline means that Hughes should be back in the lineup in late October or sometime in November.

One prominent question this offseason was whether Hughes or Dougie Hamilton would cover the point on the Devils’ top power play. That debate should be put to bed for now, with Hamilton’s preseason fantasy stock increasing as a result of this news. Hamilton averaged only 35% of his team’s available power-play minutes in his 20 games last season, but he had a dominant 2022-23 season that included a career-high 28 power-play points. Only seven defensemen registered more power-play points than Hamilton that season, so he has proven he is able to get the job done. He will still need to be at the top of his game to hold off Hughes, who registered 25 power-play points in his rookie season.

7. Simon Nemec is another potential beneficiary of Hughes’ absence. However, it is worth mentioning that Nemec was injured in an Olympic qualifier a couple weeks ago. Reports are that he didn’t suffer a broken bone, but the Devils have been silent on this injury. They were forced to say something about Hughes after a picture surfaced of him at a Michigan football game with a sling on his arm, so perhaps they wanted to keep quiet about that injury as well. The Nemec injury might be a nothingburger, but it’s something to keep in mind anyway. (sept14)

8. Ilya Sorokin is dealing with an upper-body injury from offseason training. GM Lou Lamoriello is unsure whether Sorokin will be ready for training camp but says he should be ready for the start of the season. This doesn’t sound like cause to drop Sorokin down your rankings (yet), but the Isles have also brought in veteran Keith Kinkaid on a PTO for insurance. Sorokin is coming off a season with career-worsts 2.99 GAA and .909 SV%, which should be more of a consideration of where to draft him. But like any injury situation, just keep an eye on it. (sept14)

9. Artturi Lehkonen won’t be a full participant when training camp opens, and it sounds like he may not be ready to start the season. Lehkonen is already a Band-Aid Boy, having averaged just 55 games per season over the past two seasons. Although his value has increased after being traded from Montreal to Colorado, Lehkonen should be considered more of an option in deep leagues or those with generous IR slots. (sept14)

10. Max Pacioretty has agreed to a professional tryout with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Achilles problems have led to Pacioretty playing just 52 games across the last two seasons, and he produced just seven goals in that time. It will be interesting to see how he looks in camp, but he turns 36 years old in November and has a lengthy, serious, recent injury history. He is not the player of 2018 anymore.

11. Elsewhere, Utah has added Kailer Yamamoto on a PTO of his own. He had 16 points in 59 games with Seattle last season and he’ll be 26 years old before the season starts. This might be his last chance to establish himself as a reliable NHLer. (sept12)

12. The Islanders have signed Matt Martin to a PTO. Martin has been a hits machine throughout his career and would be again if he lands a contract with the team he has spent most of his career with. However, he offers minimal value elsewhere in both real life and fantasy leagues, and he would probably be at risk of being healthy scratched as well. (sept14)

13. My last few Ramblings have covered one training camp or preseason question looming over each of the 32 NHL teams. We have already covered the Atlantic Division, Metro Division, and Pacific Division. Today, we will finish the league by looking through the Central.

Dallas Stars: What is Wyatt Johnston‘s Role?

Joe Pavelski retired in the offseason and the only player brought in from outside the organization was Colin Blackwell. Mavrik Bourque is expected to be promoted from the AHL, so there are a couple of players that will be in the lineup that were not in 2023-24, but the Stars are largely running back the same roster. That leaves the question as to what Johnston’s role will be.

For most of 2023-24, Johnston played a middle-6 role and off the top line of Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. However, with Pavelski’s play showing a clear decline, there were times that Johnston was moved to the top line. That includes some time in the postseason as well where Johnston led the team’s forwards in ice time per game. Dallas was not a team to heavily use their top forwards last year as Robertson (18:19) was the only player to crack 18 minutes a game. There is a big difference between Johnston playing 17:30 a game in the middle-6 and 19-plus minutes a game on the top line.

Johnston had a 30-30 season last year and he is heading into his age-21 season. He looks to be on the cusp of being a superstar, but he needs a role commensurate with that talent to be an elite fantasy option. With a lack of hits, he needs to make up the difference in production, and more ice time would help a lot. (sept10)

14. Winnipeg Jets: Is This the Year for Nikolaj Ehlers?

In 2023-24, only 14 forwards had more 5-on-5 points than Ehlers’s 47. He had more than names like Elias Pettersson, William Nylander, and Jason Robertson. The problem is he wasn’t used much on the power play and finished with just seven power play points in 82 games. With a full power play role all season, he would have easily been a 70-point player, and could have pushed for 80.

Ehlers has never had a 65-point season, let alone 70-point effort, but Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli are both gone. Even with Gabriel Vilardi healthy and on the top PP unit, there is a spot for a fourth PP forward, and Ehlers is in the perfect spot to do so. This is a player who will lack in areas like hits and penalty minutes, but has averaged over three shots per game across the last three seasons despite averaging just 16:32 per game. He also averaged 67 points every 82 games without much of a power play role and that meagre ice time.

Ehlers has 80-point upside if he has a prime PP role and can sleepwalk to 70 points with that role and a healthy season. He will be a free agent after the 2024-25 campaign, so he has a bit of extra motivation to show what he’s fully capable of. There should be the role for him to do so, but it’s up to the coaching staff to give him that chance. (sept10)

15. Minnesota Wild: Marco Rossi and Joel Eriksson Ek

In a Ramblings a couple weeks ago, I mentioned how Joel Eriksson Ek is in a great spot to be drafted, based on his ADP in a few spots. The one caveat to that is the role of Marco Rossi. He had a successful rookie season with 21 goals and 40 points in 82 games, and if he takes another step in his development, he may turn into the top-line centre Minnesota’s been wanting him to be for a few years. If Rossi can hold down a spot next to Kirill Kaprizov, that is great news for Rossi’s fantasy value and not-so-great news for Eriksson Ek’s.

My early guess is the team wants to see if they can make Rossi and Kaprizov work, but that is something written in pencil and not in pen. It may take a few preseason games for some clarity, and things may even change through the season, but top line/top PP minutes with Kaprizov would be tremendous for Eriksson Ek. Moving down to the second line would be suboptimal. (sept10)

16. Utah: Is Logan Cooley Going to Be The Guy or A Guy?

Nick Schmaltz has often been a centre for Arizona and the team re-signed Barrett Hayton. However, Logan Cooley took tremendous strides as a rookie last season and showed promise with Dylan Guenther. No disrespect intended towards Schmaltz and Hayton, but Cooley is the future top-line centre of the team. The question is whether that future is in 2024-25 or later than that.

There is a chance Cooley is a top line/top power play centre for Utah immediately. There is also the chance he’s a third line/second power play centre for Utah immediately. It is the difference between being a 40- to 50-point guy and a 60- to 70-point guy. Where he’s being used in training camp will influence his low ADP quite a bit.

At the outset, my guess is that Schmaltz is left on the top line, perhaps with Hayton and Clayton Keller. Utah could then insulate Cooley a little bit, using him as a the second-line centre with the likes of Guenther, Matias Maccelli, and Lawson Crouse. Then again, maybe they just move Cooley right to the top line between Schmaltz and Keller and leave Hayton in a lesser role. This team has options with what they want to do with their top-6 and top power play mixes. That is good news for the team but less good news for fantasy owners. (sept10)

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17. The September Roto Rankings appeared today (Sunday). I’m happy to say that Bangers Fantasy Hockey will be back providing the preseason rankings again this season. In fact, if you would like to view the rankings before Sunday, you can head over to the Bangers website and become a subscriber, then download the rankings (PIM and non-PIM versions). Or you can wait for them to appear here on Sunday.

Also a heads up: I will be removing penalty minutes from the categories covered. Bangers has a PIM and non-PIM version to its rankings, so I have opted for the latter. The inclusion of penalty minutes in a fantasy league is debatable. Some view it as a measure of toughness, while others see it as contradictory in the sense that a fantasy team should not be rewarded by having more penalty minutes, which forces a team into more penalty-killing situations.

Personally, I think the toughness composition of a team can now be measured in the form of hits and blocked shots, which is a reason that penalty minutes aren’t as popular a category anymore. But as I said last week when discussing categories, you be you, so you decide whatever increases the level of enjoyment in your league.

To preview some increases in the rankings, I’m pulling two specific teams that have multiple players that are on the plus side of the changes. These players could be worth looking out for in your draft, as they could be in for big seasons. With that said, please follow the link for a look at the Wild and the Habs… (sept14)

18. What I’ve done in past years around this time is writing a quick note on each of the top 100 players by ADP, and it has generally received positive feedback. However, as I am now a dad of three girls, two of them newborns, I don’t have as much time to put together a Rambling article that’s three or four times the usual length. This time around, to make it work, I’m going to cover each of the top 50, plus a few of my favorites and targets after that point.

Connor McDavid – The undisputed first-overall pick. What is going to be interesting this year is whether the 44 power play points he has put up in two of the last three years is now the bar for him. If he can approach the 71 PPPs from 2022-2023, then it’s not going to be close in value between McDavid and whoever comes in as the second-most valuable fantasy asset.

Nathan MacKinnon – After hitting 111 points for three straight years, MacKinnon has since improved his total each of the last two campaigns. Playing nearly 23 minutes a night and launching 400 shots on net makes it seem like the now-29-year-old has reached his ceiling. (sept11)

19. Nikita Kucherov – Right-wing is always a tough spot to fill, and the reigning Art Ross winner gives your team a huge leg up here. He is 31, is due for a little regression, and lost running-mate Steven Stamkos – though he was replaced by Jake Guentzel. I might expect somewhere in the 110-120 range for points as opposed to another year over 140. Just make sure your expectations are properly adjusted.

Leon Draisaitl – Having LW eligibility right off the bat makes him an easy top-five pick. For leagues that count PPPs and FOWs as separate categories you might even take Draisaitl as a top-two player.

Auston Matthews – The target is now 70 goals (well that and a Stanley Cup), and if he’s healthy the whole year then it’s a fun over to bet for the new Captain. He lost Tyler Bertuzzi as a linemate though, so we’ll have to see whether the change to Max domi or Matthew Knies is a net positive or negative one. (sept11)

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20. Filling content during the offseason is difficult. Perhaps the easiest way for me to break the writer’s block is to participate in a mock draft. I decided to join a 14-team mock draft at Yahoo, since once of my leagues has 14 teams. Even if Anthony Stolarz‘s rank is way too high, mock drafts are still good practice for my real drafts later this month. The rankings are never going to be perfect, and you just have to avoid the outliers.

Before the draft, I used the random number generator to award me the 13^th pick. That’s hardly ideal, because it’s near the end of the draft, and I have to make two picks fairly close to one another. It is possible to make it work, particularly if you have two players that you have your eye on.

You can view the full results at my personal blog Goods Fantasy Hockey. As always, first number shows round, then the overall pick.

(1-13) – Matthew Tkachuk (FLA – LW,RW) – Tkachuk was a top-5 pick in many drafts last season, yet he falls a bit this season after sliding below 90 points. His two 100-point seasons have been with different teams, which means he is not heavily linemate reliant. At 26 years of age, Tkachuk could easily reach 100 points again. (sep8)

21. (2-16) – Elias Pettersson (VAN – C,LW) – There’s sort of a high risk/reward here. Pettersson’s late-season/playoff performance has some Canucks fans worried that he won’t be worth the huge extension that he just signed. However, I picked him at around this spot in one draft last season and he turned out fine.

(3-41) – Steven Stamkos (NSH – C,LW) – I’ve noticed Stamkos falling a bit in drafts. Maybe it’s because he’s on a new team and may need time to get used to the system. Yet he is coming off a 40-goal season and has reached at least 80 points for three consecutive seasons.

(4-44) – Andrei Svechnikov (CAR – LW,RW) – I like Svechnikov for his scoring, but even more for his upside in peripherals.

Four picks, four forwards. If I’ve done this before, I haven’t done it in a while. Before Zero G grew in popularity, I would have usually picked a goalie by now. In recent drafts, I’d usually have picked a defenseman by now. I’ll target defensemen next, as you’ll see. (sep8)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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