The Journey: Prospects to Buy Low Before the NHL Season

Puneet Sharma

2024-09-28

Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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Happy Saturday! I hope you're all as pumped as I am that hockey is finally here. We're just 10 days away from the start of the NHL season and some of you have already done a few drafts, while others are gearing up for yours.

This week, I want to talk about some buy-low prospects heading into the season. The term “buy low” can mean different things depending on your league's depth and roster size, but the point is to get you thinking. What's considered undervalued in one league might not be in another. In every league you will have some frustrated fantasy owners sitting on underperforming keepers' players who have had a rough season, dealt with injuries, or just flown under the radar. That's where the opportunity lies—you might be able to scoop them up for a steal.

Luke Evangelista – Nashville Predators

I know I covered Luke Evangelista in my Players Whose Value Decreased After Free Agency but there may be a prime opportunity here. Hear me out. Although Gustav Nyquist appears to have that top-line role locked down to begin, I'm not entirely convinced it’s his to keep for the entire season. Luke Evangelista is fresh off a rookie season where he recorded 39 points in 80 games and he plays on the right wing and has been consistently talked about in prospect circles as a key piece of the Predators' future. This could work in his favor, potentially bumping him up the lineup and injecting some much-needed youth into the top line alongside Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg. Last year Nyquist put up impressive numbers across all levels—23 goals and 52 assists in 81 games. However, the last time he posted anything close to those numbers was back in 2018-2019. His shooting percentage last year was the highest he's seen since his third season with Detroit, and his power-play TOI nearly doubled from the previous year.

Even if Nyquist sticks on the top line, he’s no longer on the top power-play unit, which will significantly impact his point totals this season, making it difficult for him to replicate last year's production—especially with a potential reduction in ice time. Plus, Nyquist is 35 and in the final year of his deal, while Nashville is tight against the cap after their offseason signings. Not many fantasy managers will be focusing on this, so grabbing a guy like Evangelista for next to nothing might just be worth your time. Everyone else on that lineup is locked into their spot (Forsberg, O'Reilly, Stamkos, Marchessault), and it's only a matter of time before Evangelista gets a look on that top-six role with the Preds.

Nicholas Robertson – Toronto Maple Leafs

Maybe he rubbed people the wrong way with how he handled contract talks this offseason, especially since he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire yet. However, this is a prime opportunity for Nick Robertson to get some solid playing time and that too for an entire season to prove he’s worth it. The Leafs finally getting his deal done before camp was obviously a smart move all around. With Robertson signed, it gives Toronto some flexibility if they want to move him, but his on-ice performance needs to improve for them to get anything decent in return. Either way, it's low risk, high reward for both sides.  It's still early in Robertson's career and he's only played 87 games over four seasons, with 56 of those coming last year in a depth role. The only major departure up front was Tyler Bertuzzi, which opens the door for Matthew Knies to slot into that spot. Honestly, the only player standing in Robertson’s way up the lineup is Max Domi, and I don't see him being much of a roadblock. Robertson was grinding it out on the third line last year, putting up 27 points in 56 games, which would pace him for 40 points over a full 82-game season. This year will be a crucial indicator of what he can do in a full-time NHL role.

He won't crack the top power-play unit—that group's stacked—but if he can snag some prime ice time with William Nylander than you can also expect to see an uptick in his minutes, which will only boost his overall stock and this is where you may want to jump in—before everyone else does. It's worth nothing that aside from day one in training camp Robertson has spent most of his time playing on the second line flanking Nylander on right side.

Marat Khusnutdinov – Minnesota Wild

This isn't so much a low-value stock as it is a “scoop him up” opportunity, because most GMs in your fantasy pool might not be familiar with him yet. Marat Khusnutdinov spent the bulk of his professional career with SKA St. Petersburg, tallying 41 points in 63 games, before moving to HK Sochi last year, where he posted 20 points in 49 games. He made his NHL debut with the Minnesota Wild near the end of last season, playing 16 games and recording one goal and three assists during that stretch.

The catch with Khusnutdinov is that if he doesn’t make the team, he'll likely head back to Russia, which is something the Wild would rather avoid. He's built a solid reputation as a consistent, reliable player on both ends of the ice. His gritty style and refusal to give up on plays are exactly what the Minnesota brass loves about him, and they see him as a key piece for the team’s overall success.

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Khusnutdinov has some offensive upside, and if he has a strong showing in the preseason alongside top-end players, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Wild's lineup to start the season. He'll likely play a depth role, but there’s potential for him to move up the lineup if injuries strike. Keep an eye on him—he could be a solid depth piece in your fantasy lineup with potential for more.

Tevor Zegras – Anaheim Ducks

It feels like we never stop talking about Trevor Zegras. There is no doubt he would like to erase last season from his memory. After a slow start with just two points in 12 games, he looked like he was nursing a lower-body injury. Then, in January, he suffered a broken ankle that kept him out of the lineup for six weeks. He returned back in March recording nearly a point per game with two goals, six assists in the final eleven games.

Many fantasy GMs are skeptical, thinking he might not live up to the hype of being a top-10 draft pick anymore and sure, that very well may be true however let's not forget that Zegras put up 65 and 61 points the prior two seasons before his injury-plagued campaign with a much less talented team. A 60+ point season is definitely still in his wheelhouse with potential for more. There are some storm clouds on the horizon, though, there were numerous trade rumors swirling going into the offseason which never helps a player's mindset and Anaheim's prospect pool is deeper than a black hole so he doesn't have much time before he gets overlooked. That said, Zegras' value is at rock bottom right now and may not get any lower so the cost to give up draft capital or assets might be as much as you think. This may be the best time to buy low before that potentially changes.

Shane Pinto – Ottawa Senators

Spending the first 41 games of last season sidelined due to suspension, Shane Pinto hasn't had much of a chance to showcase his full skill set and potential. He ended the year logging most of his ice time on the second line, and that role is likely to carry over into this season. Despite his shortened campaign last year, his numbers suggest he's a player the team is willing to invest in. From his last full 82-game season prior to last year, Pinto has already shown incremental improvements on both ends of the ice. His xGF/60 saw an increase year over year, as did his OZ starts, giving him better opportunities to generate scoring chances.

During the offseason, Pinto trained with Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Brad Marchand—alongside teammate Drake Batherson. Not a bad crew to learn from. Ottawa was near the bottom five in scoring last season, and over the past few years, the Senators have consistently fallen short of playoff expectations, underachieving year after year. This is Pinto's prime opportunity to step up this season, with a solidified second-line role and even potential for some time on the first power-play unit. The caveat is that his production hinges on his linemates, particularly Josh Norris, who has been injury-prone throughout his career and is coming off shoulder surgery.

Last season, Pinto shared ice time with Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, and Vladimir Tarasenko. His production alongside those players accounted for more than half of his point totals. With the Senators signing David Perron in the offseason, Pinto might also benefit from having a seasoned veteran on his line, offering some much-needed guidance. The fact that Pinto's season was short last year could work in your favor—other GMs might not fully recognize his potential, making this a great chance to snag him in a deal before they realize what they're missing.

Thanks for reading! See you next week. For more content/fantasy hockey analysis, or if there’s a prospect, you’d like me to cover, follow and message me on X @Punters_hockey.

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KENT JOHNSON CBJ
VALERI NICHUSHKIN COL
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DUSTIN WOLF CGY
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYR Players
31.1 VINCENT TROCHECK ARTEMI PANARIN ALEXIS LAFRENIERE
22.1 MIKA ZIBANEJAD REILLY SMITH CHRIS KREIDER
10.1 JIMMY VESEY ADAM EDSTROM SAM CARRICK

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