Ramblings: More Training Camp Notes & A Full Draft Breakdown (Oct 2)

Alexander MacLean

2024-10-02

Two more days until real games. We’re almost there!

Continuing from last week, I have some training camp notes on players that have caught my eye.

As a Predators fan, I was really hoping to see a new second line of Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Tommy Novak. That line has been together quite a bit in camp so far, and they look to be gelling already. Novak may be an underappreciated player in fantasy circles, but both Stamkos and Marchessault have commended his passing and intelligence, which is exactly why he should find immediate success with those two. He's one of my favourite late-round picks this year.

I'm not really sure what to make of the Capitals and their outlook so far, but one note I am making is that Andrew Mangiapane is lining up opposite Alex Ovechkin, which shows that they are making an effort to have the new guy thrive. Mangiapane has a 35-goal and 55-point season to his name already but hasn't been able to match that production the last two years. If he sees more than 17 minutes per game – which he wasn't getting in Calgary – then he could get back to those levels.

In Vegas, the second line of William Karlsson, Mark Stone, and Pavel Dorofeyev is a great opportunity for the young winger to show he can hack it in the top-six. The top line looks to be pencilled in as Jack Eichel centering last season's winger and reconnecting him with a former winger from years ago. Both Ivan Barbashev and Victor Olofsson could be excellent late round sleeper picks as possible "top-line" players with Jack Eichel. Both players have career highs of 65-point-paces, and they could approach that again this year.

The Islanders brought over Maxim Tsyplakov who was a big goal scorer in the KHL last year. They have been trying him out up and down the lineup, and most recently on the power play (more as a net-front presence). Keep tabs on him, though he's not someone I'm tying up very valuable assets to acquire him at this point.

I am not the world's biggest proponent of Jonathan Lekkerimaki – not even in the top half – but that doesn't mean that I can't see that he's being set up to succeed here, and he does have areas of his game that will adjust well to the NHL. He's going to start the season in the AHL, but that doesn't mean he's going to be there all year. In the meantime, Daniel Sprong gets a trial on the top line with Elias Pettersson.

Detroit has had looks in camp as though they plan to stack the top line, which leaves Patrick Kane down with Vladimir Tarasenko and J.T. Compher. At least Kane will be on the top power play unit, but his even strength scoring could fall off.

The Tampa Bay lineup is looking thinner, but still potent at the top. You can't replace Steven Stamkos, but Jake Guentzel will at least take his minutes and some of those power play opportunities, providing his own excellent production. If you're looking for a bit of an edge though, 35-year-old Cam Atkinson looks to also be slotting into the top-six and should rebound back closer to his previous 50+ point paces rather than last year's 28 points in 70 games.

Ryan Hartman's biggest season was a 65-point campaign playing alongside Kirill Kaprizov, and this year he's getting another chance back there. With a bump in minutes he could be up to three shots per game again, and I think he's in a good position to thrive on a Minnesota team that looks more like a playoff contender than previous years.

Alex Laferriere is also a very deep name who is getting top line reps in LA, and seeing some power play usage as well in camp. Not quite the upside of a lot of others, but that usage could lead to a solid floor on the year.

Taylor Hall didn't exactly keep up with Connor Bedard the first time around, but I think the biggest factor to Hall's success this time around could just be that Bedard takes his big step into superstardom. Now, Hall has also spent time on other lines in pre-season, but of him, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Teuvo Teravainen, Hall has the best hockey sense, which is the most necessary skill to playing with an elite linemate.

I'm really digging the fantasy upside of a lot of Utah players this year. Mikhail Sergachev being the go-to guy finally, Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz having backup, and the young-guns line with Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley, and Jack McBain all looking sharp. There's been lots of talk about Cooley and Guenther lately (rightly so) but I want to touch on McBain for a minute.

He's someone I severely underestimated in his draft year coming out of the OJHL, but he's grown into an excellent third-line centre who brings a ton of fantasy peripherals. He already has a season with over 300 Hits in under 14 minutes per game of average ice time. The shot totals aren't there, but being the net-front presence with the two offensive players should help pad those greasy goal numbers.

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The injury timelines for David Reinbacher and Patrik Laine were announced by the Habs today, with 5-6 months for the former and 2-3 months for the latter. Reinbacher is basically guaranteed now to have his ELC slide another year, as he will play in the AHL if/when he is healthy this season. Laine we could see around Christmas time, and could still be a fantasy asset for those with the ability to stash him.

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I had one of my favourite drafts last Friday. It's a yearly 12-team Roto league with a ton of categories, and an incredibly smart group of GMs. It's always a challenge to draft and stay afloat through the year. It's the best one for me to share here as it's also a full redraft, so much more applicable to other leagues than my partial-keeper drafts.

The draft results get posted in this thread here, and I'll walk through my thinking on each of my picks to give you a sense of how I draft and what I prioritize.

Within the rounds of twelve picks, I was picking 10th in each of the odd numbered rounds, and third in each of the even numbered rounds, so I had picks 10, 15, 33, 39… etc

Round 1 – Cale Makar
I'm not sure I’ve actually ever owned him in fantasy, but he was ninth on my list and that pick allowed me to just take the best forward available for the next number of picks.


Round 2 – Kirill Kaprizov
Him and Crosby were the last two of my top-14, and I figured I could replace Crosby and his faceoff wins more easily than a do it all 100+ pt winger – faceoff wins are a category for us, and you either need to stack up on them or punt them a bit. I wanted to grab a bunch of faceoffs from the wing, but I didn't need to start yet. The top few rounds are just for the highest upside scorers.


Round 3 – Timo Meier
I knew with this league that I would have to grab Meier with this pick or my next pick if I wanted him, and I saw plenty of similar Cs to grab one of them at my next pick.


Round 4 – Aleksander Barkov
Barkov was actually my 15th rated player, and if the draft didn’t go well for me that’s who I was taking in round two. To get him in round four feels like a coup, and exactly why I took Kaprizov over Crosby in round two.


Round 5 – Jack Eichel
One of the last 90-point guys, and he doesn’t hurt much across the rest of the board either. Might lose on more faceoffs than I would like from a C2 on my roster, but still feels worthwhile here.

Round 6 – Adrian Kempe
I didn’t love this pick, but didn’t have much time to pivot around managing home distractions and having my top three in my queue go in the four picks between mine. I like Kempe, solid floor/upside, and great category coverage.

Round 7 – Linus Ullmark
Goalies were getting depleted, and it was down to four starters or so that I figured had 50+ game potential without being awful on peripherals. If I didn’t take a goalie in this short end around the turn, then the long gap between Round eight and nine would probably have the rest of them disappear. Hopefully he does well with more volume in Ottawa.

Round 8 – Vince Dunn
I needed my D2 and Dunn was the best combo of category coverage left available. In hindsight this pick works as I got a bargain on Montour later and the combined PPPs from them give me one PP1 and one PP2 guy, both with excellent peripherals.

Round 9 – Darcy Kuemper
Goalies were really getting shallow and this might be the last 50 game starter on a playoff team left. Hopefully the down year in Washington was a blip on a lesser team. I wanted to handcuff him with Rittich later in the draft, but tried to let him slip too far and lost out.


Round 10 – Brandon Montour
As I mentioned before, he works as a combo with Dunn to make a solid D2/D3 tandem. I don’t think he’s a 65pt Dman overall, and definitely not in Seattle, but he might have even been the last 50+ point Dman left, and especially the last one with any kind of peripherals.

Round 11 – Lucas Raymond
After four rounds on D/G, I’m back to forwards to mop up some of the point-per-game guys that are left. Raymond is going to take another step here and be a top-75 Fantasy player this season, this feels like one of my favourite picks.

Round 12 – Martin Necas
This is one of the many picks where I heard the alert go off, looked at the top name on my queue, and just pressed the button while I was managing a few distractions at home unfortunately. I’m hoping it’s one step back two steps forward for Necas who looks like he should be back on PP1.

Round 13 – Nikolaj Ehlers
Continuing the run of trying to milk out some point per game players after pick 100, Ehlers comes in finally seeing some time on PP1. At this cost, worst case scenario is he’s a 65-point forward with mediocre peripherals. Best case scenario he finally explodes over 80 points and the added ice time bumps the peripherals as well.

Round 14 – Neal Pionk
Goalies weren’t moving too quickly now and there were still a few guys I liked, but defence was starting to get very shallow in the guys I considered worth being at least the D-5 on my team. Pionk covers a ton of volume in the peripheral categories, and adds some reasonable scoring as well. I’m hoping with the new coach that his offensive usage goes back up a bit too.

Round 15 – Ryan Hartman
I had one minute here around babies where I thought “Oh I should look for some faceoffs from the wing”. Hartman’s name popped up and I grabbed him as a high floor guy who hopefully plays most of the year with my second round pick Kaprizov again. Hartman's best season ever was as Kaprizov's centre, so there's some history there and the two have been together quite a bit during camp.

Round 16 – Tristan Jarry
One of the last goalies left who at least comes in as the favourite to be the starter and his team has a shot at the playoffs. He might get some selective benchings from me as I mange the goalie GPs, but he felt like a worthwhile gamble here.

Round 17 – Mikhail Backlund
I’m not sure which part I question more: why I selected a 35-point player here, or why a guy with 700+ FOWs is LW eligible in Yahoo. Regardless, maybe not my best pick, but hopefully he’s at least valuable enough to keep rostering.


Round 18 – Max Domi
Ideally he lines up with Matthews again, but third line centre wouldn’t hurt too much either as it would be more faceoffs, he might still have one of Mitch Marner or William Nylander with him, and he's LW eligible.

Round 19 – Pavel Mintyukov
Maybe the PP guy in Anaheim, and at least the option with more peripheral upside. The +/- will hurt, but he can be replaced as D-5 if it’s hurting too much.

Round 20 – Arber Xhekaj
Looking quickly at my team I was pretty happy with the overall category coverage, but noted that PIMs would probably be lower. Filtered by that and he was the top option that made sense to roster. Hopefully he plays regularly, but this being Roto it’s okay if he doesn’t as I can stream in some replacements as well.

Round 21 – Anton Lundell
Another full-time C with wing eligibility. Hopefully his offence takes the step forward that others are thinking he will. His playoff performance was excellent, and while I'm not a believer that he scores more than 50 points this season, that doesn't mean he wasn't still one of the best bets remaining, and he fits in as one of my last RWs.

Round 22 – Jake Allen
As much as Jacob Markstrom is the easy workload starter in New Jersey, Jake Allen is an NHL starting goalie in his own right, and could take more starts than people expect. The Devils are going to be a very good team, and that means Allen’s starts should be valuable ones.

Round 23 – Anton Forsberg
I don’t really think he’s a great goalie, but I missed the handcuff on Kuemper and didn’t want to miss the OTT one too behind Ullmark who has never started 50 games in a season.

Round 24 – Kaapo Kahkonen
Kahkonen’s numbers from last season disuse how good he was when playing behind an actual NHL team in New Jersey after being traded from the Sharks. He’s going to have some great numbers behind Hellebuyck, and no one seems to see the value there.

Round 25 – David Jiricek
This was a dart throw on a young multi-category defenceman, and I felt that between Xhekaj and Jiricek, one of them should hit this year. I dropped him post-draft as the plus-minus in Columbis scared me too much, especially while already rostering Mintyukov and Xhekaj.

Immediate post-draft moves:
Adds (with a couple players moved to IR temporarily) – Shane Pinto, Tommy Novak, Nick Bjugstad
Drops – David Jiricek

I'll wait out on defence and see what stats I want to chase or if Mintyukov/Xhekaj just play every game for me as my 5/6.

The forwards I added give me some extra lineup options and some single position centres to run with for faceoffs. I love that Novak was still available. Completely forgot about him in the chaos of the draft, but as I mentioned at the beginning of the article he’s one of my favourite breakout bets this year.

Summary: Overall, I feel like I did well with the team. Across the board I covered categories pretty well, but the actual stats will be the real indicator there once games are underway. Hitting goalie max games played is a must, and I feel like the group also gives me a lot of flexibility to adjust in season depending on injuries and statistical needs.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 23 - 13:11 PHI vs CHI
Nov 23 - 16:11 CGY vs MIN
Nov 23 - 16:11 L.A vs SEA
Nov 23 - 18:11 FLA vs COL
Nov 23 - 19:11 T.B vs DAL
Nov 23 - 19:11 CBJ vs CAR
Nov 23 - 19:11 OTT vs VAN
Nov 23 - 19:11 WSH vs N.J
Nov 23 - 19:11 MTL vs VGK
Nov 23 - 19:11 DET vs BOS
Nov 23 - 19:11 NSH vs WPG
Nov 23 - 19:11 PIT vs UTA
Nov 23 - 19:11 NYI vs STL
Nov 23 - 20:11 S.J vs BUF
Nov 23 - 22:11 EDM vs NYR

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KENT JOHNSON CBJ
VALERI NICHUSHKIN COL
JOSH MANSON COL
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
JOHN GIBSON ANA
TRISTAN JARRY PIT
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV COL
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYR Players
31.1 VINCENT TROCHECK ARTEMI PANARIN ALEXIS LAFRENIERE
22.1 MIKA ZIBANEJAD REILLY SMITH CHRIS KREIDER
10.1 JIMMY VESEY ADAM EDSTROM SAM CARRICK

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Regicide

Jeremy and Shams are here to break down all the new injuries and update timelines as well. After all the injury news they close out the show covering all the cold Kings players giving actionable fantasy advice on each one. Lastly, they close out the show the latest hot Russian forward for Columbus that is only 1% rostered on Yahoo right now.

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