Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired Canadian forward

CLUE #2 – Despite being a major scorer in juniors, I was drafted outside the top 100 overall

CLUE #3 – I had a long career, but played for only two teams, both Original Six squads

CLUE #4 – In my first 11 seasons, all spent with one team, I never played under 80 games

CLUE #5 – I was a winger, but only once did I have a goal total that exceeded my assist total 

CLUE #6 – I am most certainly more remembered for my tenure with my first team; but despite playing only two seasons for my second team I won a Stanley Cup with them

CLUE #7 – In my first 11 seasons I had a point total between 70 and 90 every season except one, when I topped the 100 point mark

CLUE #8 – My career games played and point totals are within ten of each other

CLUE #9 – I did not adhere to the 200 game breakout threshold, excelling in my first full season on my way to winning the Calder Trophy

CLUE #10 – The two teams for which I played were Chicago and The Rangers

Hopefully you got it. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who it is. Now onto the regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming.

Topic #1 – In a 16 team, keep 8, weekly H2H league with categories and scoring of G(2), A(1), but an added point if it is a defenseman goal or assist, PIM(0.5), +/-(-.5), SOG (0.1), PPG(1), PPA(1), W(4), SV(0.14), OTW(1), SOW(1), Shutout(2), and with starting lineups consisting of 6F, 4D, 1G, a GM has the following players on their roster:

F: Aleksander Barkov, Jack Hughes, Mika Zibanejad, Logan Cooley, Teuvo Teravainen, Tom Wilson, Jonathan Drouin, William Eklund, Zack Benson, Shane Wright
D: Roman Josi, Dougie Hamilton, Devon Toews, MacKenzie Weegar, Brandt Clarke
G: Sergei Bobrovsky, Adin Hill

Should they accept a trade offer of Leon Draisaitl for Jack Hughes and Logan Cooley?

This is an interesting league, as only 11 start each week; however, if this team is an indication, there are 18 players rostered by each team. With 16 total teams, that's nearly 300 players owned, which is a lot, especially considering how few start. 

The key to focus on  is indeed the mere 11 starters. Given this, I want to have the best of the best available to me. Although I realize that for the time being, Draisaitl is one of the best there is, Hughes Is seemingly on the verge of greatness. The stat I keep citing with respect to Hughes is that as a center and by age 21 he had a season in which he averaged 1.25+ points per game as well as over 4.3 SOG per game, with the only other center in the history of the NHL to meet all those criteria being some guy named Wayne Gretzky.

What's also important here is Hughes' main drawback in fantasy is he's lousy in categories like HIT, BLK, FOW and PIM. But of those only PIM matters in this league; and prior to last season, Draisaitl had PIM totals of 24, 40, 24 and 18 in his most recent campaigns.

Still though, we now know that Draisaitl will be sticking with the Oilers for the long haul, which removes question marks that previously existed. Draisaitl is also fantastic on the PP, whereas Hughes is very good, but not yet in that top echelon with Draisaitl.

As for Cooley, he is someone who could be very, very good. But looking at this team, is he even a surefire keeper? Probably, yes; however, with only eight being kept by each team, more than half the nearly 300 players owned will get tossed back into the draft pool each season, so I'd say that Cooley is not someone this GM should be concerned with trading, and in fact I don't even think he adds much value to the trade given that only six forwards start.

In the end, as great as Hughes might be, PIM do matter here, as do PPPts and Draisaitl does hold edges in those categories and likely will continue to be better in both as well. There's also the fact that Hughes has been not very durable thus far in his NHL career, and this is a team which already has the always fragile Aleksander Barkov. As for Draisaitl, no one knows what the future will hold and he is getting up there a bit more in years; but his track record in terms of games played is very, very good, on top of being a superb producer. That definitely matters.

What I'd do is this, counter the offer and try to get a player in addition to Draisaitl who can help this year. That might be a tall order, in which case then I'd try to get a draft pick sweetener. If that doesn't work, I'd just accept the deal as is. 

Topic #2 – In a 12 team, H2H (weekly match-ups, daily lineups), keep 23 league with 28 roster spots, plus 5IR+ and 5 Farm, and categories of G,A,Pt,STP,SOG,HIT,BLK,GPT6/SV/SV%/SHO, a team has the following players on its current roster:

C: Auston Matthews, Aleksander Barkov, Brayden Point, Mika Zibanejad, Anton Lundell, Dylan Strome,
LW: Kirill Kaprizov, Clayton Keller, Matt Boldy, Chris Kreider
RW: Mitch Marner, Michael Nylander, Mikko Rantanen, Logan Stankoven, Anthony Duclair
D: Victor Hedman, Zach Werenski, Shea Theodore, Mikhail Sergachev, Radko Gudas, Jeremy Lauzon
G: Jake Oettinger, Pyotr Kochetkov

This GM is trying to trade for Nikita Kucherov, and thinks that a package of Point and Zibanejad should be enough to get the deal done. Should they make the deal? Or should they aim higher at least initially, asking for Kucherov and Stamkos for Point and Zibanejad?

This is an interesting team. They have what is likely among the best group of skaters in a 12 team league, and stacking with Toronto, Minnesota, and Florida skaters. But I'm actually not a big fan of stacking in H2H, as when everyone thrives it can be "win more" but if all falter it can really set one back, plus spell doom in the playoffs. To me it's just too risky in H2H to put lots of eggs in one basket. I'd look into diversifying a bit – more on that below.

As for Kucherov, he's superb and still somehow criminally underrated in fantasy. There's also the important fact that the Forum poster says the other GM is a huge fan of Zibanejad, and taking advantage of GMs who favor – and, in turn, likely overrate – a player is always a good thing to try to do. If indeed the other GM is beholden to Zibs to an extent that they're willing to part with Kucherov, then Point and Zibs for Kucherov might be able to happen. I would not risk being greedy in asking for Stamkos too. Yes, if they don't ask for Stamkos they'll never know if they could've gotten him too; however, if they do, then they could cause the other GM to rethink things, or become more skeptical, perhaps even skeptical enough not to make the deal for Kucherov, or ask for more than Point and Zibs.

Also, while getting Kucherov is something I can for sure endorse, the team should have a plan in place to upgrade its goalies, as I fear they will not lead this team to victory. Perhaps the plan should be to get Kucherov, hopefully for only Point and Zibanejad, but then try also to diversify by trading Nylander for help in net. Nylander's scoring rate dropped quite a bit after he signed his new deal, yet his season-long total was still great. I don't think he has another gear, so this would be selling high, especially since Toronto players, due to the attention paid to the Leafs, are arguably valued higher than they should be.

So yes, I'd try to use Zibs and Point to try and get Kucherov. But I wouldn't get greedy and ask for Stamkos, and in fact I'd be prepared to even add a sweetener to get Kucherov, but not more than a draft pick. Then I'd try to trade Nylander for more help in net. That's how I'd proceed.

Topic #3 – For one year points only, how should these d-men be ranked: Erik Karlsson, Zach Werenski, Shea Theodore, Mikhail Sergachev, Charlie McAvoy, Morgan Rielly, and Vince Dunn?

At the bottom I've got McAvoy and Rielly. Both have more real world value than fantasy, as Rielly can be great, but also just so-so, and if recent patterns continue this would be the year he's due to be just so-so again. McAvoy should be better, but he doesn't shoot enough and is just okay on the PP. Plus, the Bs of 2024-25 are a far cry from what they were at their peak, so a rising tide will not be lifting his boat, which, even when it did during Boston's historically great 2022-23 season, only resulted in a 64 point pace, or not much more than his previous high.

Third from the bottom I have Theodore. He's great when he plays, but that is the issue. Yes, he is poised to be a UFA after this season, so perhaps he magically finds a way to stay healthy to help pad his wallet, but I am not able to confidently rely upon him enough to put him higher on the list. Beyond that, until he is traded, and most likely he will be, there is a risk that his usage is hampered by the presence of not just Noah Hanifin but also Alex Pietraneglo.

Dunn has a risk too in Brandon Montour, who got a big deal this offseason; but if early returns are indicative, Dunn will remain the focal point for blueline offense. Still, Montour being in the picture does cloud things enough to put Dunn in only fourth.

That leaves Karlsson, Werenski, and Sergachev for the top three. Sergachev gets third, as his resume is not as great as the other two, even though he did show a lot during 2022-23 for the Bolts and Utah will want to position him for success, plus they look great in the early going. But until/unless Sergachev fulfills expectations, that will keep him in just the third spot.

In terms of who's best, with this being points only, a potentially lousy +/- for Werenski won't matter. Plus, as we saw with Roman Josi for several seasons when Nashville's forwards were not as potent, a scoring defenseman can still thrive, in fact perhaps more so than normal since although there might be fewer points he's likely to factor into those points all the more.

Karlsson should benefit from the Pens doing all they can to make a push in what might be one of the last seasons for their core to still remain intact. And as we saw from last season, Kris Letang is not an impediment to Karlsson as many thought he might be. And Karlsson, although quite a bit older than Werenski, should not be hampered by his age. There is concern though that he is not shooting as much in the early going, nor is he seeing as much ice time. Plus, he's played 82 games each of the last two seasons, and this from a player who has had his share of injuries. 

In the end, I've got Karlsson narrowly over Werenski, as the injury and team issues for Werenski are enough to put him a notch below Karlsson. If this is for a team though that has a deep bench and can afford the risk of an injured player, then Werenski might deserve the top spot, plus Theodore's rating could be as high as third. And if Rielly is showing signs of shooting and caring about offense, then his pattern of great year followed by just okay year might not repeat, and he could vault into the top three. In short, I put them in the order I thought was correct all things considered, but there are factors which could cause the list to need to be readjusted.

Topic #4 – In a league that counts Wins, Saves and SV%, how should these goalies be ranked for this season only: Samuel Ersson, Filip Gustafsson, Sam Montembeault?

Two of the three categories are "volume-based", benefitting whomever plays most often. The issue is none of the three is a locked in #1, especially since, when it comes to goalies, it's usually a case of relying on those paid the most, and none of the three is earning even $4M this season. Plus, in the case of Ersson, Ivan Fedotov is actually earning quite a bit more. Gus is not far above what Marc-Andre Fleury is making, although Fleury likely is seen as more of an insurance policy, where if Gus falters or is traded, the Wild could hand the reins to highly regarded Jesper Wallstedt, whom they recently inked to a two-year extension that will kick in next season and earn him $2M per campaign. Montembeault is making far more than his back-up though, so his job looks the be the most secure. Thus far the edge lies with Montembeault.

But Montembeault plays for the team which, of the three, is likely to do worst. Still, that might cost him wins, but earn him saves, and there is no penalty for a goalie allowing lots of goals, as GAA and GA are not counted. The Wild figure to be the best of the three squads, although Philly could make noise like they did last season. I'd say these factors are essentially a wash.

Due to the money, the categories, and the depth charts, Montembeault seemingly has a clear edge over the others. I'd put Gus second, but with a realistic chance to vault into first if he can show that he is the goalie we saw in 2022-23. As for Ersson, he brings up the rear, especially with Fedotov looming.

Topic #5 – Which d-man is better to own in a points only keeper: Owen Power or Brock Faber?

It's amazing the difference one calendar year can make, as at this time in 2023 no one would have even pondered this question. But after a rookie campaign where he thrived, including by taking the ice for the most TOI of any rookie d-man since the stat was charted, Faber is now in the conversation for sure.

Looking at money, both have inked deals that will pay them north of $8M per season, so that will not tilt the scales. The one key though is Buffalo is likely done when it comes to signing rearguards, that is unless they extend Bowen Byrum, which I'd say is iffy given his injury history and his production falling off quite a bit after an initial spike when he arrived last season. But the Wild, as we all well know, will be emerging from several seasons of cap hell this summer, with money to finally spend. Yes, they made a major commitment to Faber; however, who's to say they don't go and grab the likes of Shea Theodore, Jakub Chychrun, Aaron Ekblad, Ivan Provorov, or Jeff Petry, or even try to offer sheet  the likes of Evan Bouchard or Luke Hughes? The gist is that Faber seems like he's had the red carpet rolled out for him; however, inasmuch as he was not an early pick nor had he thrived offensively before entering the NHL, it is possible that he takes on more of an all-around defenseman role, comparable to the likes of Cam Fowler or Filip Hronek, who also are paid similar amounts. Let's also not forget that last season basically everything that could've gone right for Faber did, as he had no one standing in his way for prime PP time or minutes.

As for Power, the thinking had been that Rasmus Dahlin's stranglehold on PP1 and offensively favorable deployment would not be affected by Power, who many felt was drafted by the team due to the adage that you can never have too many great d-men. But a shift might be occurring, as even though Power has not yet produced in terms of points, his 5×5 team shooting % in each of his first three seasons was 10.2% or higher, which is pretty great, while Dahlin has never in his career hit double digits. And Power is getting longer looks on the PP. There is a universe in which Power becomes more of a focal point than Dahlin, or that they form a one-two punch, bolstered by a Sabres offense that is shaping up to be likely one of the best in the NHL the rest of this decade given all the young talented forwards they have.

I wish I had a crystal ball to see what Minnesota does this coming summer; however, there are enough seeds of doubts for him that I tend to favor Power, especially when it appears that the Sabres are looking to him more this season, perhaps as the first sign of increased emphasis. It is indeed possible that Faber is the real deal, and can be a "the guy" d-man who rises to the level of a Victor Hedman, Drew Doughty or Roman Josi; however, given his pre-NHL stats and that the Wild can spend freely next summer, I'm going with Power. But it is close enough to where I feel a reasonable person could opt for Faber instead.

Topic #6 – For this season only, who's the better own in a league with skater categories of G, A, PPPts, PIM, SOG, HIT, BLK, Macklin Celebrini or Adam Fantilli?

It's important to focus on the fact that three of the seven categories are banger stats. While we have a decent number of games from which to gather that data for Fantilli (very solid in HIT, decent in BLK, not so great in PIM), we're left guessing for Celebrini, although for what it's worth as I write this he had zeros hits, blocks, or PIM in his first NHL game.

We know that both are all but assured top six minutes; however, somewhat surprisingly Fantilli did not take the ice for even 50% of Columbus' PP minutes last season, and thus far for 2024-25 is faring even worse in that area. In contrast, Celebrini was put right on PP1, a spot he's likely to continue to occupy given his pedigree plus the Sharks not brimming with better options.

Also, if early returns are any indication, Celebrini is going to be put into position to succeed, as his OZ% is sky high at 75%. Fantilli's was 61% last season, which, considering the struggles of his team, was about as high as it could've been. For 2024-25 thus far though, it's only 33%, although that is assured to rise, but perhaps not hit even 50%.

As for the teams around them, Columbus, already gutted by the tragic loss of Johnny Gaudreau, will now be without Boone Jenner for a long, long time. Meanwhile, San Jose has talent in the form of veterans Mikael Granlund and Tyler Tofffoli, plus youngsters like Celebrini as well as William Eklund and Will Smith. Overall, San Jose figures to be the better of the two offensively, which is what matters here. Still, if Celebrini is as bad in banger areas as he's shown thus far, he'd need to be quite a bit better than Fantilli in the other categories, and I'm not sure that when the dust settles that will be the case.

If this is a team brimming with guys who contribute in the banger categories, then Celebrini is the pick. In fact, even if that is not the case, an argument could be made nevertheless to go with Celebrini, as my adage always is grab better scorers, since they grow on trees far less than guys who can be plugged in so as to bolster banger numbers. I'm going Celebrini here.

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The ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Steve Larmer!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.