We’re still early in the season, and while the sample size is small, I'm diving into shooting percentages and some additional stats for prospects. Someone recently reached out to ask my thoughts on a few players and their stats. The goal here is to determine whose early season play will translate into continued success down the stretch, who's primed for a breakout, and who might be on borrowed time. For this analysis, I'm using Dobber's Frozen Tools, which is packed with a wealth of data.

Barrett Hayton

Hayton’s hot start has turned heads, as he’s averaging 1.25 points per game (six points in five games). That’s a step up from the 0.30 points per game (10 points in 33 games) he managed last season, which, by the way, was also marred by injuries. This jump is more than a fourfold increase in production, but let's not get too carried away just yet. If you extrapolate his current pace across an 82-game season, he's on track for just under 100 points. We all know better than to base long-term projections on a five-game sample.

Hayton is definitely trending up, however, his 33.3% shooting percentage is nearly triple the league average of 9-11%, while his career mark is 10.4%. It's safe to say he's riding high, and that's bound to even out. Once his shooting percentage comes back down to earth, you can expect his goal-scoring pace to drop too.

One stat that stands out is his IPP, which is at 75%. To put that in perspective, elite players like Connor McDavid hover in the 70-80% range. So, we're likely to see a dip here too, probably by at least 10% as the season progresses. Again, it's just another reason to temper expectations.

A positive sign, however, is what's driving Hayton's early success, his increased power-play time and overall usage. If Utah can keep leaning on him in these key situations, he could maintain solid production even as his underlying stats normalize. While this hot start suggests real growth, expecting him to maintain this elite pace might be a bit ambitious.

While we're still talking Utah, keep an eye on Dylan Guenther, who's also riding this early-season wave alongside Hayton on the power play. Guenther's overall play has been strong, and if he locks down a bigger role with the man-advantage, his scoring will benefit—even as his underlying stats inevitably regress.

Quinton Byfield

Byfield’s start has some people talking. He’s showing signs of being ready for that big leap, but the results aren't quite there yet. Three assists in five games is not shabby, but it’s still a slow start from what many were expecting. That said, there's plenty of reason to believe this could be the year he really takes off.

Byfield has a shooting percentage of 0% with 13 SOG which we all know is clearly not sustainable especially for a player with his combination of size, skill, and net-front presence. Given his skill set and the fact that he's generating higher-quality chances this season, a shooting percentage anywhere around 12-14% could be very realistic. He's seen an increase in overall power-play time year over year by just over 10% which is definitely a notable increase however it is important to note that during this early stint he's been playing the second and occasional third-line role primarily with Kevin Fiala and Warren Foegele and on the second power-play unit.

Byfield was recently bumped up to the top in Thursday night's game against Montreal. It was inevitable that we'll see him move up the lineup and on to the top unit at a more frequent rate at which point we can see his point totals increase.  It's hard pressed to see him play in a depth role when the Kings have been trying to prime him for playing top line minutes. A realistic target would be somewhere around 0.70 to 0.75 points per game, which would put him on track for a 60–65-point season, but that all hinges on his deployment.

Juraj Slafkovsky

Slafkovsky, on the other hand, has kicked off the season on the right foot for the Habs faithful. He's riding a 16.7% shooting clip, which is higher than his career norm of 12.5%. He's improving on his shot selection and also benefiting from a little bit of puck luck. With one goal and three assists over his first four games, he's been involved in two-thirds of the goals scored while he's on the ice which is a clear sign that he's becoming more of a focal point in Montreal's offense.

He won't be consistently involved in two-thirds of the offence all season long so look for that to slightly dip but it's a good indicator of his increasing impact on the team's overall offense. His TOI with the man-advantage has also increased thus far by nearly two minutes. This is where he'll have the chance to pad those point totals, so the fact he's earning that ice time is a big green flag for anyone holding him in fantasy. More time on the power play usually translates into more points, even if his even-strength scoring slows down.

While he might not maintain this pace, his expanded role and power-play time gives plenty of reason for cautious optimism as the year goes on. It's a solid step in the right direction for his development, and Slafkovsky's early-season success is definitely something to get excited about. All signs point to him carrying last year's momentum into this season for an even bigger impact.

Alexis Lafrenière

Before I let you go to enjoy the rest of your weekend, I wanted to quickly touch on Lafrenière. He is one player who for the most part everyone in the fantasy world has been waiting to break out. Lafrenière has two goals and three assists in his first four games, which has Laff owners buzzing. His TOI has shown a steady increase year over year since joining the Rangers, which is a positive sign however expect that his shooting percentage will drop from 25% right now while his career average is 14.4% along with his 5on5 shooting percentage and PTS/60 as those a high as well.

We're finally seeing how well he is meshing in with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck early in the season. To get a clearer picture of his breakout potential, it'll be key to watch his CF% and Expected Goals (xG) stats as the season progresses. These will tell us if he's driving play and creating chances or if his early success is more about luck. That being said, being this early on in the season the underlying metrics suggest Lafrenière is likely to show some regression, but he should be ready to have a very productive season this year even with not getting any power-play time on the top unit.

Thanks for reading and enjoy your weekend! See you next week. For more content/fantasy hockey analysis, or if there’s a prospect, you’d like me to cover, follow and message me on X @Punters_hockey.