Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is available in the Dobber Shop! The nice thing is that because it is digital-only, updates were made as news changed.

Our French version of the Guide, Le Guide des Poolers, is also available via this link.

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1. The Rangers have signed Alexis Lafreniere to a seven-year, $52.15 million contract extension, which works out to a $7.45 million cap hit. That’s a significant raise from the $2.325 million cap hit that Lafreniere has on the final year of his contract, so cap league teams will need to budget for that next season.

Lafreniere has shown gradual improvements in production since debuting in the NHL in 2020-21, reaching a point-per-game pace in his first seven games this season. A move to a line with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck seems to be working, which means that Lafreniere should be rostered in nearly every fantasy league.

Getting Lafreniere signed to what might turn out to be a decent cap hit is a good piece of business to get out of the way for the Rangers. Although the cap ceiling is expected to rise, the Rangers will need to make room for a sizable raise for Igor Shesterkin, who will be a UFA if he is not re-signed by the start of free agency. (oct26)

2. Next week’s schedule is much more spread out and off-night friendly than this past week’s schedule was with Tuesday’s Frozen Frenzy and another stacked Saturday, so you won’t be forced into as many tough start/bench decisions. For more on the coming schedule, see this week’s Looking Ahead, or head over to Frozen Tools to use the Schedule Planner. For starting goalie information, head over to GoaliePost.

3. In my Ramblings a couple of days ago, I wrote about early hit and block rates across the league. While perusing some other stats, I became intrigued by shot rates.

According to Hockey Reference, as of Wednesday afternoon, teams are averaging 29.3 shots per game. If that were to hold, it would be the lowest mark in an 82-game season since 2007-08, and the lowest for any season since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 schedule.  

What is curious about that is that according to Frozen Tools, shot rates typically decline as the season wears on:

• Total shots per game in October of 2023 was 61.5. In March of 2024, that number fell to 59.2, and it landed at 59.1 the next month.
• Total shots per game in October of 2022 was 63.0. In March of 2023, that number fell to 61.2, and it landed at 61.3 the next month.

Shots went up slightly throughout the 2021-22 season, but we were still dealing with the pandemic and rampant absences in the league, so I’d rather read into the two recent, normal seasons than the abnormal one three years ago.

What is even more curious is how shots are being distributed… (oct24)

[Follow the link for more…]

4. Ivan Barbashev continues his hot start to the season with seven goals and 11 points over his first eight games. Entering Saturday, Barbashev was shooting at a very unsustainable 43.8% (!), but he is averaging two shots per game for the first time in his career. Although he is not on the top power play, Barbashev is taking advantage of even-strength minutes with Mark Stone and Jack Eichel. He has potential for a career year of over 60 points if he can stay on this line all season, but he won’t continue to score at this pace. (oct26)

5. Alex Vlasic has been skating on Chicago’s top power play unit. Vlasic has three assists, seven shots, five hits, and 19 blocks in seven games thus far, so he had some multi-cat appeal anyway, but this would drastically change his outlook. We will see how long this lasts, but it’s worth mentioning Chicago has a four-game week next week, including games in San Jose and Anaheim. Two of those four games are on light days, too, so he could be a pretty good streaming option if he can hold onto that PP role through the weekend. (oct25)

6. Yegor Sharangovich (lower body) returned to action Saturday. Calgary was doing just fine without him, but adding a guy who reached the 30-goal plateau last season will always be welcome. (oct25)

7. Very good news for William Karlsson, as he was expected to resume action this weekend. Entering Saturday, Karlsson had yet to play this season, but figures to be a key forward for the team’s middle-6 as they look to stabilize those lines. We will see if this translates to power play time, and there could be a lot of fantasy goodness if he can manage that usage. (oct25)

8. Staying with Vegas, they extended defenceman Shea Theodore for seven years with his contract carrying an AAV over $7.4M per season. When this contract starts, Theodore will be in his age-30 season, and he does have an injury history, so this doesn’t come without its own risk.

All the same, if Theodore stays healthy and can avoid that post-30 decline, he is one of the best puck-moving defencemen in the league. It is a raise of about 40% from his current cap hit, though, and without huge peripherals, he may be priced out of a lot of fantasy salary cap formats. (oct25)

9. Anton Lundell is clearly off to a great offensive start this year. Last season, he didn’t score his fifth goal until mid-February, so he’s about four months ahead of schedule there. His point-per-game pace will be tough to keep up but it seems he’s turning a corner offensively. (oct25)

10. At time of writing, Martin Necas had three multi-point games in his last four outings, and eight points in six contests this season. Half his points have come on the man advantage, so he’s clearly a much different fantasy option now that he has that top PP role back. (oct25)

11. Maveric Lamoureux has been called up by Utah. The 29^th overall pick from 2022 had three points in four games to start his AHL season in Tucson. The Lamoureux recall was necessary because of some bad news from Utah as Sean Durzi had shoulder surgery and will be out a minimum of four months while John Marino had a back surgery and is out a minimum of three months. That is a big blow to the blueline to lose both defenders, even if Marino has yet been able to suit up in a game. This could be a good chance for Lamoureux, though, so let’s see what he does with it. (oct24)

12. St. Louis provided an update on Robert Thomas after leaving Tuesday’s game following a blocked shot and it wasn’t good: fractured ankle; to be re-evaluated in six weeks. Six weeks isn’t the end of the world, but it is a huge blow to both the team and to fantasy managers. (oct24)

13. On Tuesday, the NHL promoted its first Frozen Frenzy in which all 32 teams play on the same night. From a marketing standpoint, it makes sense because it’s a day that the NHL can (mostly) have to itself on the North American sports landscape. The World Series doesn’t start until Friday, the NFL doesn’t usually play on Tuesdays… oh wait, the NBA has its opening night… but it’s just two games… but one of them involves a famous father and his son playing together in a regular-season game for the first time. Ah… hockey has been there and done that with the Howes. (oct23)

14. Brandon Hagel is off to a tremendous start with nine points in seven games, with none of those points on the power play. His value could really take off if he sticks on PP1. Darren Raddysh, who was moved off the top power play for Hagel, was scratched for the Bolts last two games. The Lightning had used Raddysh on the power play because he is a right-handed shot. The Bolts were hoping he could replicate Steven Stamkos‘ one-timer on the power play, but so far Raddysh has no power-play points and one even-strength assist in five games this season. (oct22)

15. The Matt Savoie/Ryan McLeod trade was roundly criticized from a Sabres standpoint when it was announced. However, Sabres fans have to be happy with what they’ve seen from McLeod so far. Entering Saturday, McLeod had goals in four consecutive games and a five-game point streak. Being used in more of a third-line role, McLeod shouldn’t suddenly be considered a breakout candidate. But he might be valuable to the Sabres in real life, and they could always use that. (oct22)

16. Philipp Kurashev was a healthy scratch earlier this week. Kurashev was often a linemate of Connor Bedard last season, but the Blackhawks have picked up more depth this season to ensure that Bedard doesn’t have to do everything himself. The addition of Teuvo Teravainen in particular seems to have hurt Kurashev, who has just a single goal in seven games. The Blackhawks may be a better team this season if they’re not just trying to get warm bodies into the lineup. (oct22)

17. Oh look, the Predators finally won a game, and it was even a shutout! Juuse Saros stopped all 33 shots he faced in a 4-0 win over Boston on Monday. It goes without saying that it was also Saros’ first win of the season, even though it was his third quality start in five games. Despite the Preds’ struggles, Saros’ season numbers are still very respectable, which is a good sign. No need to panic if he is on your roster. (oct22)

18. It’s surprising to see the offense dry up this much for Michael Bunting after he posted 19 points in his first 21 games with Pittsburgh following last year’s trade deadline deal. Bunting’s even-strength linemates – Evgeni Malkin and Rickard Rakell – haven’t changed, but his power-play role has dropped drastically with Kris Letang back on the top unit this season. With Bunting scratched (early last week), Jesse Puljujarvi got a well-deserved promotion to line two beside Malkin and Rakell. (oct21)

19. With Kaapo Kahkonen finally clear of immigration, the Avs now have three options in net. I’d say Alexandar Georgiev is still the frontrunner as he’s the only one with a large sample of individual excellence under his belt (i.e., the 22-23 campaign when he posted 17 goals saved above expected). However, Kahkonen has had strong stints, and Colorado will be the best team he’s played behind, so there’s potential for him to go on a run here. Justus Annunen was also solid in a small sample last year and could continue earning starts if he can build off his past week's momentum. The way I see it, the Avs are a good team, they just need their goalie to not be bad. Whichever of these netminders can be average (or better) consistently should be able to carve out a significant role for themselves this year. With Georgiev’s fantasy stock likely at an all-time low after his awful start to the campaign, you may want to see if he’s available at a discount. The team in front of him is very good, so there’s a decent chance they’ll be able to resuscitate him as the season progresses – especially as players return from injury. Georgiev is just one season removed from consistent, high-end play, so I imagine he’ll have a longer leash than Annunen or Kahkonen. (oct21)

20. Since San Jose is a bad team, fantasy managers might be hesitant to roster any Sharks in fear of tanking plus/minus. However, some of their players have shown incredible category coverage that comfortably outweighs any plus/minus concerns. Guys like Mikael Granlund  Tyler Toffoli and William Eklund are solid fantasy options but remain criminally undervalued because they play for a bad team. (oct21)

21. Fantasy-wise, I think Lukas Dostal is a lot like Sam Montembeault in Montreal. Both are younger goalies with impressive individual talent, playing on developing teams who aren’t quite there defensively. This helps both netminders rack up a lot of saves, but wins will be much harder to come by. Given the similarities between the two, it surprises me that (at time of writing) Montembeault was owned in 71% of Yahoo Leagues while Dostal was rostered in just 35%. Perhaps some of that is due to Montembeault getting more recognition in the media, but also because John Gibson will be returning from injury soon, so there’s fear he’ll take starts away from Dostal. Regardless, given Gibson’s injury history and shaky play over the past five years, Dostal should still be able to provide strong fantasy value for the rest of the season. (oct21)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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