Ramblings: Edmonton’s Power Play; Peaking Dach; Goals Galore for Caufield, Hischier & Colton (Oct 28)
Brennan Des
2024-10-28
Celebrating a birthday that equates his age with his jersey number, Leon Draisaitl had a hand in all of Edmonton's goals en route to a 3-2 overtime victory over the Red Wings. #29 had a slow start to the season, posting just one point in his first three outings, but has since rebounded with nine points in his last six games. He's paced for over 100 points in each of the last six seasons and should have no trouble repeating that feat this year.
Mattias Ekholm tallied two assists on Sunday, including a nice pass to set up the overtime winner. He now has seven points through nine outings, which is especially impressive when you consider he doesn't play a prominent power-play role. He's contributed to other categories too, averaging 3.1 shots and 1.5 blocks per game so far.
Ekholm wasn't the only Oilers' defenseman with two points on Sunday as Evan Bouchard chipped in a goal and assist. After posting just one point in his first six appearances, Bouchard has five in his last three. He's fallen victim to Edmonton's power-play struggles this year, possessing just one point with the man advantage through nine outings. Bouchard already had five PPPs after nine games last year. Speaking of which…
After failing to convert on both of their power-play opportunities on Sunday, the Oilers are now 3 for 23 on the power play. Their current 13% success rate pales in comparison to the 26.3% mark they posted last season.
So far, Edmonton's top power-play unit has featured the same five players who enjoyed success last year: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. Those first three stars are locks on PP1, but during last week's practice, we saw Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner skating on the 'top' unit in place of RNH and Hyman. Although that new configuration didn't make it to the team's next game against Pittsburgh, we saw it implemented briefly against Detroit. The usual PP1 group started both of Edmonton's power plays on Sunday, but halfway through the Oilers' second man advantage, instead of a wholesale change to swap PP1 for PP2, it was just RNH and Hyman that made way for Skinner and Arvidsson, while McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard stayed on. The 55-second sample was too small to judge whether they deserve more looks going forward, but given Edmonton's early power-play woes, don't be surprised to see this strategy used more often as the team works out of this funk. Exposure to superstar talent on the power play could provide Skinner and Arvidsson nice boosts in fantasy value.
Nine games into the season and we've seen some troubling trends for Detroit, conceding 34.9 shots per game – only Pittsburgh (35.0) has allowed more – and managing a league-worst 24.8 shots per game. They've been particularly bad on the penalty kill, where they rank 31st with a 66.7% success rate. Their PK personnel hasn't changed drastically since last year, when they were a middle-of-the-pack PK team, so I'm inclined to think there's potential for them to improve in that area as the season progresses. Unfortunately, the PK isn't their only concern as they rank dead last in expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength (via NaturalStatTrick). Although they haven't had to pay for their underlying deficiencies yet, sporting a 4-4-1 record identical to four other teams in their division, results may get worse if they keep up these lacklustre performances.
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After lighting the lamp on Sunday, Cole Caufield now has eight goals through nine appearances – second to only Nico Hischier. Being fresh off shoulder surgery may have limited his goal total last season, but his shooting prowess has been on full display this year and he seems destined to crack the 40-goal mark if he can stay healthy. Although Caufield is a skilled shooter, it's worth noting that he's currently riding high shooting percentages that will be difficult to maintain over the course of a full season. Selling high on him in single-season leagues wouldn't be a bad idea, but he's a top-tier goal scoring threat worth rostering all year if you're not getting good value in return.
Caufield's partner in crime, Nick Suzuki, has been on a tear lately. After posting a goal and assist against the Flyers, Montreal's captain is riding a seven-game point streak, including three-straight multipoint games.
Juraj Slafkovsky has missed Montreal's last three games with an upper-body injury, so Kirby Dach has taken his place on the Habs' top line beside Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki. After posting just one point through six games before Slafkovsky got injured, Dach has four points in three games since his top-line promotion, including an assist on Sunday. The problem is, he's likely to drop back down to the second line once Slafkovksy returns, meaning less exposure to Suzuki and Caufield. Dach himself is a talented young player who's still developing his game, so it'll be interesting to see if this recent production gives him the confidence to drive the second line once Slafkovsky returns. Of course, that mission will become a lot easier once Patrik Laine returns to the lineup and Dach has an improved supporting cast to work with.
With a power-play goal on Sunday, Montreal now ranks 8th in the league with a 25.8% success rate on the man advantage. Mike Matheson leads the team with five power-play points. Much is made about Lane Hutson deserving a promotion to PP1, and while there is merit to the claim, I don't think the Habs rush to make that switch considering Matheson is getting results. Now, a look under the hood suggests a disconnect between process and results, as Montreal ranks 20th in expected goals per 60 with the man advantage (via NaturalStatTrick). While everything is rosy now because the puck has been going in, there is certainly room for improvement, and Hutson will likely be able to provide that down the road. However, I imagine the team wants Hutson to develop his overall game before adding PP duties to his plate, which should give Matheson a decent bit of runway before having to pass the PP torch.
22-year-old rookie Aleksei Kolosov made his NHL debut on Sunday, stopping 20 of the 24 shots Montreal threw his way. Although the first two goals were out of his control, he probably could have done more on the third and fourth. Philly's goaltending is in dire straits right now, as Samuel Ersson leads the way with a shocking .872 SV%, 3.56 GAA and -4.95 GSAx (via Evolving Hockey). Against a below average Canadiens' team, Kolosov didn't do enough to establish himself as a better option, nor to demand more opportunity going forward.
Travis Sanheim factored in on all three of Philly's goals Sunday, giving him five points in his last four games. He's never posted more than 2.0 shots per game in a season, but he's averaging 2.9 so far this year. Sanheim has the talent to be a valuable fantasy blueliner, but he's never gotten a long run of prominent power-play time in Philly. On Sunday, with Cam York injured and Egor Zamula scratched, Sanheim still didn't see significant PP time.
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Nico Hischier picked the top corner against James Reimer to take top spot in the NHL's goal scoring race. New Jersey's captain has had an outstanding start to the year with nine goals in 12 outings. He's averaging a career-high 3.5 shots per game.
Reimer surrendered six goals on 34 shots and reminded us how incredible Lukas Dostal's early-season performance has been. It's nothing short of a miracle that Dostal holds a 2.17 GAA and .936 SV% through six games behind this inexperienced Ducks' team. He ranks second in the league with over nine goals saved above expected (via Evolving Hockey).
Dougie Hamilton tallied two assists on Sunday, giving him six points in his last six games. A slow start that saw him go pointless in his previous six outings is becoming a distant memory.
Two goals for Stefan Noesen on Sunday, including one with the man advantage, which likely extends his shelf life as the net-front presence on New Jersey's top power-play unit. That isn't great news for Timo Meier, who's been stuck on PP2 for the past seven games. Although Meier has 3 PPPs in his last five games from the second group – which possesses more talent than the average second unit – his fantasy ceiling would be higher if he was seeing prominent minutes beside top-tier talents on PP1.
Dawson Mercer made a couple of nice plays to collect two assists on Sunday. He entered the game with just three points in 11 games but has been playing well and should be more productive going forward.
Sunday marked the Devils' 12th game of the season. Carolina, Washington, Vancouver and Columbus have only played seven. Something to think about as you craft early-season trade offers and attempt to squeeze some extra games into your fantasy roster.
Troy Terry. Leads the Ducks in scoring. Points in seven of his eight appearances. Scored at a 70-point pace in two of the last three seasons. Despite all this, he's rostered in just 19% of Yahoo Leagues. Sure, his peripheral category coverage leaves a lot to be desired but there are probably a few leagues that focus on offense where Terry is still flying under the radar.
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Just as we all suspected, Ross Colton scored his eight goal in his ninth game, entering a three-way tie for second place in the NHL's goal-scoring race. He's supplemented strong offense with solid peripherals, posting 3.8 shots and 3.0 hits per game. The smart play would be to sell high on him soon as Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin return from absences, but honestly if you're not getting enough value back, I wouldn't mind riding this wave until it crashes. There's a world where Colton's strong play keeps him in a prominent role even as the team starts to get healthy.
Nikolai Kovalenko, enjoying a top-six role this season as a result of Colorado's numerous injuries, scored his first goal of the campaign on Sunday. He's been especially valuable in leagues that track hits, averaging two per game. Even with all the Avs' injuries, he's averaging less than 14 minutes a night and hasn't cracked PP1, so he isn't someone I'd endorse in fantasy formats.
Three primary assists for Casey Mittelstadt on Sunday gives him 12 points in nine games this year. He's been excellent thus far, skating nearly 20 minutes a night and enjoying roughly 85% of Colorado's time with the man advantage. However, I imagine his load will be lightened as players return from injury, so maybe start kicking tires to see what kind of value he'd return in a trade right now.
Claude Giroux scored two goals in the final few minutes of this one, giving him four goals in his last three games and nine points in his last six. He turns 37 in January but seems to be defying Father Time as he remains a high-end fantasy asset.
After three great starts in a row, Justus Annunen finally had a showing with subpar numbers – although he was minutes away from extending his run to four games were it not for Giroux. The door is slightly more open for Alexandar Georgiev now, who's in the perfect position to re-establish himself in Colorado's net as the team faces 30th-ranked Chicago on Monday. A good start should help Georgiev work his way back into the rotation.
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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!