Frozen Tool Forensics: Power Play Changes for Sillinger, Walman, Kurashev, Arvidsson, and More
Chris Kane
2024-11-08
This week we are returning to a Frozen Tool Forensics classic – deployment. Every so often it is helpful to get an understanding of who is getting better opportunities on the ice, whether that is increased overall time on ice or increased time on the power-play. Obviously, we are most interested in players who are getting both.
In order to look at this I pulled two custom reports from the Reports Page. Both were the Big Board report, but for different time periods. I have the 2024-25 season to date and the full 2023-24 season. By pulling the two time periods we can review the two data sets and establish who is seeing an increased role with their team compared to last season. The tables below contain some basic scoring data from 2024-25 to date, time on ice data from the 23-24 season, and then the difference between the sets of time on ice data. We are using power play percent because the number of opportunities (actual time) per game can fluctuate in a smaller sample so the percentage gives us a clearer understanding of how the player is being deployed. Data is from Frozen Tools and as of the afternoon of November 7th.
Name | POS | %PP | TOI | 23-24 %PP | 23-24 TOI | Δ %PP | Δ TOI |
ALEX LAFERRIERE | R | 59.2 | 15:38 | 12.6 | 13:13 | 47 | 2:25 |
COLE SILLINGER | R | 63.2 | 18:10 | 17.2 | 16:07 | 46 | 2:03 |
JACK THOMPSON | D | 52.2 | 16:46 | 7.9 | 15:40 | 44 | 1:06 |
ROSS COLTON | L | 69.6 | 18:38 | 25.9 | 13:43 | 44 | 4:55 |
JAKE WALMAN | D | 55.5 | 22:42 | 12 | 19:46 | 44 | 2:56 |
First up, let's take a look at players who have seen increased deployment. For the purposes of organizing, we are actually sorting by change in power play percent but the overall change in time on ice is also represented here.
We will briefly hit everyone on this list, but there are definitely a couple of names that stand out. Ross Colton was the add of the month because of the big increase in role he got because of all the injuries in Colorado. He was fantastic during his run putting up eight goals in nine games with that role. Unfortunately, he also then got injured and is currently out. In the meantime, Artturi Lehkonen has returned to fill that top power-play spot and both Jonathan Drouin and Valeri Nichushkin could also return before Colton does. It doesn't bode all that well for Colton being relevant when he re-enters the lineup.
Jack Thompson and Jake Walman share a similar story here. Walman started as the top power play quarterback in San Jose, but then started losing time to Jack Thompson. Neither saw significant time last season so those gains are the reason being on the list here. Unfortunately, both have been health scratched recently and with Timothy Liljegren added to the team, neither has gotten top power play deployment. As of this writing (November 7th) Thompson got second power play duties with Walman being scratched. Long story short, neither are as exciting if Liljegren is on the top power play, though at least Walman still provides peripherals.
That leaves us with Alex Laferriere and Cole Sillinger.
Laferriere has seen the biggest jump in power-play deployment in the early goings of 2024-25. He has been a steady fixture on that unit with only one game (October 17th) where it looks like he got less than a 50% share of the team's power play. That increase has led to an overall increase of time on ice, an increase in shot rates, and 13 points in 14 games. There are some indications that his current point pace is too high, so probably don't expect a 75-point season the rest of the way, but there is a lot to like here.
Cole Sillinger is in something of a similar situation. He has seen a greater than 50% share of his team's power play in all but one game, and has been on the top line at times, but at least the top six the whole season. He has eclipsed the 20-minute mark for total time on ice multiple times already this season. Unfortunately for Sillinger it hasn't really translated into a higher shot rate (sticking to about two per game), and actually slightly lower expected goal rates. He currently has eight points in 12 games (a 55-point pace). That is fine, though it doesn't necessarily look like we should expect more at the moment. The deployment is great so there is some reason for optimism here, but he could be doing a lot more to take advantage of it.
On the flip side, here are the players who have lost out the most on average so far this season.
Name | POS | %PP | TOI | 23-24 %PP | 23-24 TOI | Δ %PP | Δ TOI |
PHILIPP KURASHEV | L | 21.6 | 16:00 | 65.7 | 19:01 | -44 | 20:59 |
SEAN DURZI | D | 26.3 | 21:28 | 68.3 | 22:43 | -42 | 22:45 |
LUKE HUGHES | D | 28.9 | 18:06 | 70.8 | 21:28 | -42 | 20:38 |
CODY GLASS | R | 1.2 | 12:20 | 42.4 | 13:26 | -41 | 22:54 |
VIKTOR ARVIDSSON | R | 24.7 | 15:56 | 65 | 16:42 | -40 | 23:14 |
Philipp Kurashev is a bit of an interesting case. Chicago added several players in the off season and it seemed pretty likely that Kurashev was going to get pushed further down the depth chart. Indeed, that is how the season started, with him anchoring a second line and second power play. The lines have not stayed constant though. The prime spots next to Connor Bedard have continually shuffled with Kurashev, Ryan Donato, and Lukas Reichel all winning the sweepstakes recently. That hasn't necessarily translated to points though as Bedard has been cold and Kurashev only has one point in his last five games. It also hasn't translated to power-play time as in the two past games (November 6th and 3rd) Kurashev was not on either power-play unit (he did get some secondary time last night). If he can click and reignite Bedard maybe this turns into something, but for now it is a pretty disappointing change for Kurashev.
Sean Durzi has suffered a similar fate to Kurashev. The offseason acquisition of Mikhail Sergachev put a huge dent in Durzi's power-play role. He only suited up for four games before going out with injury, so it is a bit of a moot point for the next four to six months anyway. For what is is worth Michael Kesselring is getting some second power-play opportunities in Utah recently.
Luke Hughes is in something of a similar boat. There isn't a new player, but a healthy Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton only played 20 games in 2023-24, so Hughes was able to take over top power-play duties. With Hamilton back and getting that time Hughes is back to the second unit. His lack of peripherals make him a tough player to roster without that top time.
Cody Glass isn't super relevant here. In 2023-24 he got to play a minor role on the power play in Nashville, occasionally the first unit. He managed one power-play point and a 26-point pace overall. He ended up in Pittsburgh this season where he is getting no power-play time to speak of. Consider him essentially fantasy irrelevant.
Viktor Arvidsson moved to Edmonton and on the one hand we might think, 'Great – they score a ton of goals and he is going to get to play with either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisatil'. Those things are technically true, but they score a ton of goals on the power play and Arvidsson hasn't been given much of a shot on the top unit. Even when McDavid was hurt, they opted to go for a unit with two defensemen rather than put another forward in McDavid's place. There is still something of an opportunity at even strength, but an Oiler not on that top power play really shouldn't be expected to be super relevant.
That is all for this week.
Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.