Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from D)

I'm in a 10 team H2H league with categories of G, A, PPPts, SOG, HIT, Games Started, W, SV%. As I write this I'm 5-3, so in the thick of it but needing to improve. To that end, I wonted to ger your thoughts on some of my players, notably whether I should be patient given their poorer than expected starts. They are Owen Tippett, Kevin Fiala, Vincent Trocheck, Dylan Cozens, Miro Hesikanen. I have Igor Shesterkin and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as my goalies, who have served me well given how often they start, plus we're allowed two adds per week, enabling me to stream a third goalie. What do you think I should do given where things stand?

That is several players. I'll cover each, but not give as deep a dive as normal.

With Tippett, his most frequent linemates have been Travis Konecny and Sean Couturier, just as was the case in the second half of 2023-24 when he tallied 27 points in 35 games. Tippett's SOG rate is down, but that only means it's not as sky high as it was in 2023-24, when on a per 60 minute basis he fired the fourth most SOG among all NHLers. Even with the drop though, he remains in the top 50, ahead of the likes of Matthew Tkachuk, Dylan Guenther, Chris Kreider, Cole Caufield, and Seth Jarvis.

The big difference I think lies in IPP, as last season Tippett's was 71.6% overall, while it stands at 53.8%. Meanwhile, if we look at Konecny, his IPP has risen from 71.9% to a staggering 90.1%. That, right there, seems like the clear explanation, namely that points which should have gone to Tippett have instead gone to Konecny. Over the course of the rest of the season, things should normalize, with Tippett doing better as a result. I will preach patience with him.

Fiala looked like he had made the leap, with scoring rates of 85 and 86 points in 2021-22 and 2022-23. What made it seem more sustainable is one was with the Wild, the other with the Kings. He was able to hit the ground running on his new team. Since then though his scoring has dropped, and this season it has reached a level not seen before his first full season with the Wild. I understand you remember Fiala for being a famously great second half player, but as he stepped up his production he became more consistent, so I feel banking on him going nuts in the second half as happened in past years is unrealistic.

Also, let's keep in mind that Fiala is on the Kings, where although the team does give its PP1 forwards, including Fiala, ample TOI, at ES it's an entirely different story for most. Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe are both getting 19:00 or so per game, but Fiala being one of four other forwards in the 17:00-17:30 range, and there being two more in the 15:00 to 17:00 range. Fiala has only once ever been above 18:00, and that was just 18:02. With him shooting less and his ice time limited, I think it is more realistic to hope for him to produce closer to the 73 point rate he did last season than the 86 point rate he did in 2022-23, and that is only if he ups his SOG rate again. Here too I see room for improvement, but not significantly.

As for Trocheck, he's on the wrong side of 30; and in a my most recent mailbag I showed not only do big hitters tend to fail to produce well after age 30, but often their production nosedives. Yes, Trocheck is not quite as big a hitter as those players, but he's not far from it, and that style of play might be why he's producing so poorly. But the other issue with Trocheck is he's really great sometimes, but then he comes back to earth thereafter, as he's scored at a 75+ point pace three times, but in both prior cases his production dropped in each of the next two seasons; so what we' re seeing is par for the course, but a bit more worrisome given his age. And his IPPs are not that much less than last season, where it really seems like he was buoyed by Artemi Panarin. It's tough to give up on Trocheck in a league that counts hits as one of just five skater categories and eight total categories, but I'd consider trading him, since although he's done poorly versus expectations, other GMs will look to last season, plus see his huge hits total for this campaign, and likely give you a very nice return.

Cozens has started to show signs of life as of late; but he's still disappointing, even when compared to his poorer than envisioned production last season. He's on PP1, but sports a PP IPP under 20%. That either means he should find more points on the PP in the normal course, or his spot could be at risk of going to one of the many other talented Buffalo forwards. I think the latter is a realistic concern, as in the two most recent seasons Cozens received the 94th most PP minutes among forwards, but his PPPt total ranked him only 99th, or slightly below expected. I do like that he's at a SOG rate which would mark at career best, but he has the opposite issue as Tippett in that his IPPs are lousy but his 5×5 team SH% is better. As I said with Tippett, I prefer it to be the other way around, so I'm not very hopeful that Cozens will fare that much better than last season when all is said and done.

Heiskanen was considered a disappointment last season; but now things are even worse. In this case it's simple math, as Heiskanen's IPPs have plummeted, down by more than half on the PP and nearly half overall. But his 5×5 team SH% is great. He's also likely not at risk of losing his PP1 gig given what he's done in the past plus his "the guy" status with the Stars. His SOG rate, though lower again this season than the prior campaign, hasn't nosedived. What does concern me somewhat though is we could point to the emergence of Thomas Harley in 2023-24 as syphoning points away from Hesikanen. But he's not doing that now. What I think is happening though is the far higher than normal scoring rates of the likes of Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment, and, before he got hurt, Tyler Seguin, were indeed taking points away from Heiskanen that he'd otherwise have tallied. Of all those listed, I'm the most optimistic that he will improve significantly. Plus, you can't trade him, since GMs will now see his 2022-23 season as an aberration, making it impossible to get anywhere close to true value.

For those skaters, I'd hold pat with Tippett, Fiala and Heiskanen. Cozens could get to the point where his is indeed a drop, and Trocheck should be traded. 

Regarding your goalies, not much needs to be said except they're superb in this league format, among the precious few who are indeed entrenched starters. Keep doing what you're doing with them, and streaming when needed. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Greg)

My league is 16 team, keep 8, H2H with rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4F, 4D, 1G, 6Bench, 2IR+, 1NA and categories of G, A, PPPts, GWG, SHG, +/-, W, GAA, SV$, SHO. Note that Farm playes can go in and out of the regular line-up until they lose their farm eligibility after 3 seasons of 26+ games (for skaters) or 31 games (for goalies)), providing a lot of flexibility for a long time. Up to seven farm players can be kept. As I write this, I'm in first place with the following player on my roster. 

F: Mitch Marner, Connor Bedard, Quinton Byfield, Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, Kirill Marchenko, Connor McMichael, Pius Suter, Alex Laferriere, Victor Arvidsson, Chandler Stephenson, Jack McBain

D: Dougie Hamilton, Josh Morrissey, Mike Matheson, Dante Fabbro, Jared Spurgeon, Seth Jones

G: Ilya Sorokin, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonnen, Elvis Merzlikins

Farm: Joseph Woll, Frank Nazar, Pavel Mintyukov, Mavrek Bourque, Mackie Samoskevich, Maxim Tsyplakov

I see my keepers as likely being Marner, Fiala, Boeser, Morrissey, Sorokin, plus three of Laffy, Byfield, McMichael, Zibanejad, Marchenko, Hamilton, and UPL. My farm keepers would the the six listed above, plus Bedard.

The player who has me concerned is Byfield. I traded for him as I was rebuilding but now that I'm competitive I’m wondering if should remain patient, or to try and move him to a rebuilding team for a player who'll give me more now? Options include Jake Guentzel or Dylan Strome. I’ve approached some GMs with offers of Byfield + Mintyukov but have not found takers as yet. Should I hold Byfield? What about my team in general, and who do you see as likely keepers?

Looking at your potential keepers, I do think Byfield would make the cut, since as a larger frame player he will need time to find his groove. I realize that in trading for him you likely felt he wouldn't need that long to shine; however, more and more it looks like he will, assuming he does.

Given that you're doing well, but your keepers – to be frank – are not superb, you need to try to do what you can to win, as I'm not sure you'll have a leg up when it comes to next season. That might mean parting with one of McMichael or Marchenko, as my guess is they would be at least part of the cost to pay to get one of Guentzel or Strome. The question is which of the two to move. Both stand at nearly identical career games played, and thus should hit their breakout thresholds this season. Both also appear to now be entrenched in their team's top six and on PP1.

But McMicahel is a LW, the same position as Alex Ovechkin. When Ovi returns, McMichael will be put back onto the second line, where he was mainly playing with Tom Wilson and Pierre-Luc Dubois. He found success there, and should remain on PP1 even once Ovi is back, as he'd already been featured on PP1 before Ovi's injury; but that is a question mark which exists less with Marchenko, who likewise is on PP1 but who plays for a team with two top lines that not only both see about the same TOI per game but also have the same talent levels. Also, both do appear to be overachieving, with McMichael's team 5×5 SH% at ES standing at 12% and his own SH% just under 20%, while for Marchenko's it's a slightly higher team SH of 13 but slightly lower individual SH% of 16%.

In cases like these, what you do is put both out there for trade and see what offers you get. Rather than trying to value them yourself, see how others do, as I think they're comparable enough that the one to deal is the one who nets you the best return. As for Byfield, I'd stay the course, as your other keepers are not so superb that he'd take a spot of a clearly superior player. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Dwayne)

I've been rebuilding for some time, and I believe it's starting to pay dividends, as my team looks poised to make the playoffs. That having been said, I'm realistic that I'm still not yet a serious contender to win it all.

With this in mind, I'd like your thoughts on the upside of the many young players on my roster. The league categories are: G, A, Pts, SOG, PPPts, +/-, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, and SV%. There are 10 teams, with 3C, 6W, 4D, and 2G active and 5 players (any positions) as reserves, and 10 minors eligible players (<162 games played for skaters, <100 games played for goalies, in both cases prior to start of season, meaning one does not lose minors eligibility during a season). Minors eligible players can be moved to active or reserve squads daily as long as there are an equivalent number of minors eligible players going the other way. Thus, it is nice to have more than 10 minors eligible players to maximize games played (I currently carry 15). The players for which I'd like your thoughts on future upside fall into 3 buckets:

Players who'll still be minors eligible after next season: Brandt Clarke, Berkly Catton, Connor Zary, Ryan Leonard, Cayden Lindstrom, Danila Yurov, David Jiricek, Kevin Korchinski, Yaroslav Askarov

Last season of minors elibiglbilty players: Wyatt Johnston, Mason McTavish, Cole Perfetti, Alex Lyon

Players no longer minors eligible: Jesper Bratt, Clayton Keller, Lucas Raymond, Cale Makar, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Tippett

Also, I had Cole Sillinger and Phillip Tomasino at one time but dropped them. Do you think it is time to pick them up again off waivers before other GMs see what they've done recently?

Let's look first at those who will no longer be minors eligible following this season. Given what you correctly indicated as to why more minors players is better, these are guys who'll need to be good enough to be kept on their own merits.

Obviously Makar is amazing and needs no discussion whatsoever. Bratt yet again started strong; but my guess is when the dust settles he'll be back at his usual point per game pace, which is still quite good. Keller is on pace to see his SOG and points rate both drop, but also his SH%. If anything, one would expect a higher SH% with fewer shots being taken. The good news for him is the young stud Utah players are not LWers, so his "spot" is not in jeopardy. But it's unclear if he'll score as much despite more offense occurring. Raymond's SOG rate continues to be low for someone scoring as much as him. Also, he's at a PPPt every other game, or well above his normal rate. But his TOI is up, and he's not far removed from his breakout threshold. Tippett was discussed above; and, despite his SOG volume and likelihood to do better, he is outclassed by the rest of these players. Dahlin I discuss below; but I like his SOG rate and IPPs, plus Owen Power seems to not be a threat to Dahlin's role as the top option for blueline offense, again as explained more below. Dahlin is also a beast in HIT and BLK. If I had to rank them, I'd go with Makar then Dahlin, with Bratt, Raymond and Keller pretty close, then Tippett.

Those in their last year of minors eligibility are mostly a step down. Johnston started slow, but has shown signs of life of late. Despite his numbers being worse he's shooting more, but not so much more as to lead to his SH% having been cut in half. If it was what it was last season he'd be right at the same scoring rate. He's only now just hitting his breakout threshold. That being said, he plays for Dallas, where no one gets great deployment, making it difficult to envision him as better than a point per game player in the near term. MacTavish and Perfetti are doing decent, but not enough to force them to be played more. Both still could pan out, but I'm not loving where either one is given how close they are to their breakout thresholds. Lyon is a depth goalie, and entirely unremarkable.

The young players I'd rank collectively about a four out of ten. Askaraov could be a star, and Clarke is poised to step in when Drew Doughty is deemphasized, although look at Shea Theodore coming in under Alex Pietrangelo to see how a vet can hang around and cut into a d-man's production. Jiricek has a new lease on life, but Jared Spurgeon is showing he's not ready to be pushed aside, even by Brock Faber, who inked a huge deal. I'm not sure he will be a big scorer. Korchinski is still young, but he's not shown me as much as I'd hoped by now. Still, he should be ready to contribute once Connor Bedard is really shining. Leonard also holds a good bit of promise, and Zary has shown signs of being a good middle-six forward.

As for Tomasino and Sillinger, Tomasino has lure since he'd have one more year of minors eligibility, while Sillinger would not. But I do like what I'm seeing from Sillinger, and would grab him too, if only to get his numbers for this season. The drops for Tomasino and Sillinger would be Lyon and Tippett. Good luck!

Question #4 (from JC)

I'm in league where a player can only be kept once before they have to go back into the draft. It is a yahoo pool. Rosters positions are 2C 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2Util, Util, 2G,5 BN, 2R, 2IR+. Each active lineup spot has a maximum games played of 100, and we get 26 free agent moves per season. Scoring is G(2), A(1), PPP(1), SHP(1), GWG(1), SOG(1), HIT(0.1), BLK(0.1), W(3), SV(0.5), SHO(2)

As I writ this, my team consists of:
Forwards: Connor McDavid (C) Brayden Point (C) Matt Boldy (LW, RW), Clayton Keller (LW, RW, Matvei Michkov (RW), Jordan Kyrou (C, LW) Jamie Benn, (LW), Mitch Marner (LW), Kyle Connor (LW), Tim Stutzle (C, LW)
Defense: Noah Hanifin, John Carlson, Oren Zellweger, Miro Heiskanen, Jake Wallman, Rasmus Dahlin
Goalies: Igor Seshterkin, Filip Gustavson, Jordan Binnington, Stuart Skinner
IR: Mathew Barzal, Mark Stone

Of those players, McDavid, Marner, Stutzle, Barzal, Dahlin, Shesterkin, and Skinner can't be kept. So I will be quite gutted after this season. Given this, and the fact that although I'm in fifth place I'm only 40 points out of first, do I go all in? Or do I ransom off my expiring assets?

This is indeed a dilemma, as the team both seemingly has what it takes to contend, but also will lose most of its best players as unkeepables. JC was kind enough to send me the rosters of the other teams in the league who are both ahead of and behind him. What those above him all have in common is several players who are overperforming to an unsustainable extent, whereas this team the only ones who seemingly fit that bill are Gus and Wallman. The rest are proven producers, and that matters.

Still, rising above four other teams is no small task. It would amount to your squad doing better enough than each of them so as to overtake them. Yes, we're not even a third of the way into the season, but that might be a tall order. Let's not forget you'd also have to stay above those who are currently behind you, although looking at their squads I do see what appears to be a pronounced drop off from the top five to them.

This merits a discussion on how a team can realistically make up ground in the standings. Keep in mind that when your players are doing well in terms of scoring, so too are likely their linemates on other GM's teams, that is unless you own player stacks, which you do not. Then again, diversification does allow for the ability to not put your eggs in one basket. The teams above you are diversified for the most part too though, making it perhaps all the harder to overcome them.

The other way to make up ground is via goalies, and here I really like your odds. With two saves worth the same as one assist, and you having three of the top six in saves, that is huge. Then again, it also says that you've relied upon them quite a bit already. Still, I see this as a trend likely to continue, and it will help your team quite a bit in a quest to make up ground.

Another way to gain ground is to have guys on weaker teams yet to perform well, as chances are when they do well fewer players on other GMs' teams won't benefit at the same time. I'm talking about guys on San Jose or Columbus, as they sit far down in the standings yet their offenses are quite good. Still, things like that are unlikely to be lost on other GMs, but it's something to consider. Normally I'd also advocate for many off night players, but with a games played cap that is less alluring. Lastly, you want players who get heaps of PP time. That's because a PPPt amounts to not just a PPPt, but a regular goal or assist as well, plus perhaps a GWG. And the good news is you seem to have that area covered well, in fact likely better than most if not all of those above you.

The other factor to weigh is if you turn those expiring assets into a combination of top prospects plus young talent who should improve, you can pair them with what would still be a pretty decent shell which you'd have left. But what cuts against that is in a league where players can only be owned by your team for two seasons, there really is no such thing as a rebuild.

I think that last part is what tilts the scales. Why trade those studs when you probably won't get better enough to win next year, after which you'll have to lose Boldy, Connor, Point, Keller and Gus, among others? I think you go for it, and hope your goalies perform as they have and your skaters keep pace with those of the other teams, allowing you to slowly rise to make up those 40 points. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Ted)

Let's say Rasmus Dahlin is out for a while and Owen Power thrives in his absence. It there a universe where Power becomes "top dog" in Buffalo, including on the PP?

In fantasy, the expression "never say never" does indeed apply. On the surface, it seems plausible here, as both were selected first overall, and their salaries are now basically comparable. But I don't see it happening for a variety of reasons.

Dahlin was drafted to supply offense from the blueline. He's done that quite well. Plus, his OZ% has been 55% or higher in every one of his seasons. Also, he's a monster on the PP, with PP IPP of 64% or higher in all but one of his seasons. And for a defenseman, even a PP1 QB, that is a very high percentage. Not surprisingly his PPPt total ranks him sixth over the past three seasons, which is right in line with his PP TOI, which ranks him fifth. Also, Dahlin has been a consistently minus player, but he shoots a ton, with his SOG per game rate set to rise for the third straight season.

As for Power, he's not lived up to his draft slot, having not averaged a point per every other game in any of his seasons so far. He's faring a bit better now; but despite still getting 2:00+ PP time, he's not tallied a single PPPt. Let's not forget that due to the depth among Buffalo's forwards, its PP2 is not a huge step down. For Power to not have a single PPPt at this stage of the season is not going to help his cause. Unlike Dahlin, Power is a plus player and he's a more selective shooter, having not averaged even two per game in any campaign. What is interesting is Power has been in double digits for 5×5 team SH% in each of his seasons, while Dahlin has never been. Rather than that bolstering Power's case, I figure that the Sabres will look at how Power is being deployed and figure that all is well as is.

There might be more hope if somehow there was a realistic scenario for both to be on PP1. The issue is not only is that much more rare in today's NHL, but it would be unheard of with the Sabres, due to their forward firepower.

Certainly the Sabres will be curious to see what Power can do as the top dog while Dahlin is out. But in view of what both bring to the table, especially given Dahlin's SOG rate and PP IPP versus Power's, I feel it would be next to impossible for things not to return to normal once Dahlin is back. Good question!

Question #6 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm intrigued by what Philip Tomasino has done so far with the Pens. Is there a chance he sticks in the top six and becomes a 60+ point player?

Tomasino certainly hit the ground running in Pittsburgh, with points in four of his first five games, while averaging three SOG per game and taking the ice for 40%+ of his teams PP minutes in four of the five contests. So early signs are positive. Tomasino also sits just below his 200 game breakout threshold, such that improvement would be even more plausible.

Yes, he was criticized in Nashville for his effort level, which led to him getting less ice time, in turn putting him in a chicken and egg situation where he wasn't producing enough to get more ice time but wasn't getting the ice time to produce more. Even though his TOI per game dropped by over three minutes from 2022-23 to 2024-24, Tomasino still nearly scored a point per every other game. That was despite being in and out of the line-up, making it difficult for him to get into a rhythm.

What I love to see is despite not racking up points, Tomasino had an overall IPP over 72%+ in each of his first three seasons. That shows he has a nose for scoring. An argument can be made it was that high at least in part due to him skating with less talented players, buti's still impressive, as is him scoring at the rate he did in the past two seasons despite the the team having a 5×5 shooting percentages of 7.5% and 7.7%. But as noted above, I'll take a high IPP over a high 5×5 team shooting percentage, since it is arguably easier to "fix" the latter, whereas the former is an innate ability, and one which can translate to higher scoring if put into a position to succeed, which he looks to be in now.

There are two big issues. First, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are in the twilight of their careers. Make no mistake – they're still leaps and bounds better than those with whom Tomasino was sharing the ice in Nashville; however, they're not explosive scorers as they once were. Also, it won't be long before they're retired, at which point it's not clear the Pens will have reinforcements. Still, it might be enough time for Tomasino to make his mark, as he seems to be on the verge of doing now.

Still, there's something I've mentioned in the column previously, which is that since Crosby and Malkin were both in the league, dating back to 2006-07, the list of wingers who've produced above a 60 point pace more than once consists of Jake Guentzel, James Neal, Chris Kunitz, Phill Kessel, and Bryan Rust. That's it – four names in nearly two decades. For the most part it's been a revolving door of young players trying to find a spark, or veterans on their last legs. But only four have truly succeeded, and two of those – Kessel and Neal – had already achieved some success previously, making it really only two.

I do think Tomasino, with his track record of high IPP and how he's responded so well right from the get go, has a chance to make a mark. But I wouldn't expect greatness, and it's not clear that even if he does succeed if it will be short-lived in view of Crosby and/or Malkin slowing or retiring. Good question!

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I'm always looking for mailbag questions, so don't hesitate to sent them to me. You can get do so in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.