DFS Saturday: Senators Trending Upward

Andrew Santillo

2024-12-21

Good morning DFS squad! How'd everyone's night go last night? For me it was the kiss of death. Right at the edge of cash with one game to go on the last slate. Oh well. win some, lose some. Let's get back at it today!

For this slate today, I think it's going to be an interesting one for sure. There's one line in particular that might be a more popular than others here, but I could see scoring coming from just about anywhere for today. Odds are, I'll be a single-entry warrior here tonight, but if push comes to shove and I'm between a couple different spots, then I might move up to 3-max and go from there.

Slate Preview:

NY Islanders vs Toronto

In case any of you are new here, welcome! Second, writing about the Islanders takes place about once a week. This club just keeps coming up on slates where I can't entirely X them out, and today is just one of those days. They'll be going up against a Leafs club that played last night and if memory serves, this is an Isles squad that swept the season series against the Leafs last year. Even without fully knowing whether Anthony Duclair will return to the lineup, I don't hate that first line of Brock Nelson ($5,100) and Kyle Palmieri ($4,900). If you're in multi-entry here tonight and use optimizers, this club might get onto some of your stacks and if so, I'm fine with it. For me, I'm not making the Isles a priority here, but if I need a pivot, then this might be a spot that I go to.

For the home Leafs, they're in an alright spot here at home and this might be one of the clubs that can break the slate here tonight. With that, you can do one of two things. I don't hate dipping your toe in the water just a little bit for Auston Matthews ($9,900) one off or even William Nylander one off ($8,500) as there's some cheaper lines out there today that makes this manageable. The second option would be to fully stack either of the top lines and bring everyone along with it. If you play Toronto top line, bring in Matthew Knies ($4,700), and if Toronto 2 is your slice of pie today, then add Max Pacioretty ($3,800) and build from there. I have to say that if it's a Toronto night for me, I'll only be stacking forwards and staying away from the blue line. There's just better spots out there and tonight is one where you can get away with cheaper defensemen.

Pittsburgh vs New Jersey

I had a really good lineup on Thursday night. The only issue was that I did not have the Pittsburgh top line that broke the slate after an OT win versus Nashville. I wonder now if this is a spot to maybe go to, and I'm considering doing just that but just taking wingers and defensemen. Crazy, I know leaving off Sidney Crosby, but if want to spend up for expensive Matthews, or maybe even another center we'll talk about on the New Jersey side, then I need a discount somewhere. For that, I'm looking at a two-man stack here of Bryan Rust ($6,600) and Rickard Rakell ($5,900) and doing something a little different with this two-man. I haven't built my lineup just yet, but this could be a double defensemen spot and take Kris Letang at $5,200 and Matt Grzelcyk at $3K. I rarely play double center or double defensemen, and I almost never play Pittsburgh in DFS, but the way this slate looks like it could shake out, it's a play that I'm considering making here tonight. If you want to drop a bit and play the Pittsburgh second line, that's fine for a filler, but I'll likely stick close to the top line and go from there if Pitt is in my mix.  

On to New Jersey here. Stefan Noesen is back on the top line, so I have interest there. If anyone wants to go with my patented never once lost (1-2 on the season) play of plugging in the top four forwards for New Jersey, that's a decent idea here tonight. Recency aside, this is still Pittsburgh, and I don't see how New Jersey would have any issues running that club out of the rink here tonight. For me though, I might just slam in a Jack Hughes ($9K) one off and go about my day and look forward to sweating this one out. In any size contest here, I'd strongly consider the Devils as they are in a really good spot here at home but be careful. This is also a spot that will be easy to get duped on your lineup.
 
Ottawa vs Vancouver

One mantra that I always look to in DFS are that trends are your friends. The Sens have played great the last ten games and liked the way that this club looked Thursday night in an OT win against Calgary. Well, that and it was the only decent game on the late slate that night so it that going for it as well. I can't play the Senators seriously and not have Brady Tkachuk up at $8,800, and throwing on skaters from the first line or second here works just fine for Ottawa. This is also a decent spot to get your filler stack, if you need that in your build tonight. If you drop down to the third line and add Shane Pinto ($3,200) and build alongside Claude Giroux ($3,400) and Adam Gaudette ($2,900), that gives you plenty of salary to work with and to me, I don't mind the way that three-man stack looks in a lineup. The depth lines will avoid the top six of Vancouver and if that group gets on the scoresheet, then you're going to be on a very unique path to cash.

For Vancouver…is I don't know the correct answer here? I had Vegas in a 4/3/1 with Vegas being the "four" the other night at home versus this Canucks club and Vancouver did what they're very good at doing, and that's playing defensively sound hockey all throughout their lines. As much as I love that for just watching a game, in DFS that's a no-go. Still, someone has to score here, and their prices have gone up a bit, J.T. Miller ($5,500) and Brock Boeser ($6,200) are still going to skate together here and I could see both of them here tonight leading the Canucks forwards in ice-time. Ottawa may be a little bit more of a priority play here for me tonight, but I really like this Vancouver team. DFS aside, I think they're very close here to really making noise in the Western Conference. This may be a spot whereby the end of the first period in this game, my lineup is done, I can either just sit and watch what should be a good game or sweat out a Thatcher Demko start. Probably the latter.

Defensemen:

Onto the blue line here…doors closing…Western is next…doors open on the right, at Western. Chicago people who take the Blueline into the city will know what I'm talking about there. Any who, Dougie Hamilton is right around the highest I would spend up for a defenseman tonight at $6,500 but just below him at $6K, I have to give some consideration to my guy Noah Dobson. Shea Theodore at home for the Knights tonight is at $5,700 and quietly has points in four of his last five games and will always consider Vegas at home in DFS. I've gone through my Pitt defensemen, but a one-off Kris Letang here tonight is fine and around the same price, Charlie McAvoy at $4,600 is in a good spot tonight versus the Sabres. Lane Hutson at $4,200 has somehow gone down in price since the beginning of the month, so I don't mind him at all tonight on a back-to-back against the Wings. For a cheap D-man tonight, I'll go right back to Brayden McNabb at $3,200 and be happy with either of his usual outcomes of 4.1 DK points or 8.4.

Goalies:

In net for me tonight, I don't like spending up here to get Thatcher Demko at $8K, but he's one of the goaltenders on the slate that I've got circled here already. On the other side of that matchup though, I don't hate Linus Ullmark here either and oops, oh gee darn. Accidently put Ullmark into my lineup…don't think I can undo that! Really though, I do like Ullmark here and my spend up would be Demko. Right below Demko, Connor Hellebuyck is at home at $7,900 and will always give him some consideration even if he doesn't make it into my build. Dropping down in price tonight, Elvis Merzlikins had a 30-point DK day last time out and while I doubt he replicates that, he's at $6,900 going up against Philly. There are worse spots to be in.

Good luck tonight everybody!  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
PETR MRAZEK CHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency N.J Players
23.4 STEFAN NOESEN TIMO MEIER NICO HISCHIER
17.9 ONDREJ PALAT JACK HUGHES JESPER BRATT
11.3 TOMAS TATAR JUSTIN DOWLING NATHAN BASTIAN

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