Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I will be examining shots. We'll examine shot attempts, sometimes represented as individual Corsi For (iCF) – when a player shoots the puck toward the net, whether it hits it, misses, or gets blocked and shots on goal – when a player’s shot attempt hits the net (but not the post). If a player hovers around hitting the net on 50% of his shot attempts and this season, he is hitting the net on only 40% of his attempts, we can reasonably expect his shot on goal numbers to rise as this number regresses toward his norm. These would be players who are underperforming in shots on goal and likely in all offensive categories.

We'll also examine these numbers as per 60-minute rates to see which players are taking advantage of their ice time the most. These might be middle six players who only get 12-14 minutes of ice time per game with limited or no power play usage. It can show that these players have a high floor when getting poor deployment and high ceilings if they were to earn a larger role.

Inaccuracy – Shots on Goals Relative to Shot Attempts

Filip Forsberg

Forsberg has disappointed fantasy managers so far this season. He only has nine goals and 26 points through 34 games. Aside from poor overall play from the Predators, his individual shooting stats are interesting. His shots on goal per game rate has also dropped to 3.53, while many expected it to be near last year's rate of 4.23. While his shot on goal rates have dropped, his shot attempt rates have stayed right where they were last year. At even strength, Forsberg has hit the net on 41.4% of his shot attempts. Last year this number was 50.1% and the seasons prior to that it was 52% and 55% respectively.

Forsberg has shown no signs in slowing down his shot attempts. He's just shooting into blocks and missing the net more often – he's just been inaccurate. He's also leading the league in posts and crossbars hit with 11, and he leads the league in missed shots. I'm expecting his shot on goal rates to rise as the season progresses, possibly reaching that 4+ SOG per game rate for the remainder of the season. As his shots rise, so too will his offensive production.

Dylan Guenther

On the opposite end, Guenther has impressed his fantasy managers, already picking up 16 goals and 16 assists in 32 games. He has shown great accuracy when his shots hit the net, with a 19.5% shooting percentage, but his shot on goal to shot attempt rates paint a different story. A story of really picking his corners. He's hitting the net on 37.1% of his shot attempts. This was 53% last season and 49% the season prior. Like Forsberg – Guenther has been inaccurate in his shot attempts. He, like Forsberg, also has hit 4 crossbars this season and is near the top of the league in missed shots.

Guenther should improve his shot on goal rates. With a high shooting percentage already, I'm not sure if this will translate to more goals, but it will be a nice boost in shots on goal when he stops scoring at an insane rate.

Efficiency – Per 60 leaders

Bobby McMann

McMann has impressed in a limited middle-six role. After being a healthy scratch to start the season, he's picked up nine goals and 13 points in 26 games. His shot and hit numbers make him rosterable in deeper banger leagues with 66 shots on goal and 45 hits. This is good for an 82-game pace of 28 goals, 13 assists, 41 points, 208 shots, and 142 hits. This is all with zero power-play time and limited exposure to the Maple Leafs' superstars. This is represented in his shot per 60 minute numbers, ranking third in the league, behind his teammate Auston Matthews and Brady Tkachuk. His point per 60 rate is also similar to Matthews.

With limited ice time at even strength, and no power play time, McMann's ceiling is capped to his current production. If he gets moved up the lineup though (maybe swapping places with Matthew Knies…), McMann should be rostered. If he keeps his current rates, his shot and hit numbers could rise to 3+ shots per game and 2+ hits per game. That would be great for a 50-point player in multicategory leagues. Keep an eye on McMann's deployment!

Jeff Skinner

Some managers were very excited for Skinner to play on the Oilers. Well, he's disappointed greatly. He's lately found himself on the fourth line with no exposure to the Oilers' superstars at even strength or on the power play. This makes him non-rosterable in most leagues. He is still making the most out of his limited ice time though.

His shot per 60-minute rate is in line with his career norms at 10.36. He is averaging 2.3 shots on goal per game with the limited ice time. If he could ever find himself back in the top six, he should get 3+ shots on goal per game and definitely a bump in offensive production. Skinner's stock has dropped to its lowest possible, so he may not be on anyone’s radar anymore. If the Oilers make a lineup change and give Skinner another shot alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, he may be worth a waiver add.

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

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