Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I will be revisiting my True Value Goalie Rankings to examine the goalie landscape. As we are just nearing the halfway point of the season, the True Value Rankings can shed light on what has happened in the first half and possibly what we can expect moving forward. Those Yahoo Rankings for our multicategory leagues may be misleading us. This can give you the edge if your league-mates only rely on Yahoo's rankings. If you are unfamiliar with my True Value constructs (Quality Weeks, Really Bad Weeks, and Star Weeks), I utilize these to model a Goalie's True Value in head-to-head (H2H) category leagues. You can find a deep dive into this topic in a previous article here.

In general, in your weekly H2H leagues, a goalie is only as good as they perform for you week-in-week out. Sometimes a Goalie's cumulative stats are elite (+.930 SV%), but they tend to have some terrible weeks followed by great weeks. For your H2H fantasy league, they may have only performed well in 60% of your matchups. Their ranking in Yahoo, ESPN, or Fantrax won't represent that inconsistency – The True Value Goalie rankings do. These rankings are built specifically for H2H category leagues that include Wins, SV%, GAA, and SO. They will also be relevant if you don't count SO, but are not as relevant for volume-heavy leagues (e.g. W, Saves, Sv%).

Here is a breakdown of the criteria of the True Value Goalie constructs:

Please note, these constructs may slightly differ from the constructs represented in FrozenTools.

Quality Week (QW) – When a goalie has performed above the weekly average in two out of three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA). Last season, the average QW% was 55%.

Star Week (SW) – When a goalie has ranked top 15 for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA) OR if your goalie has had a quality week AND has also gotten a shutout (this assumes SO is a counted category). Last season, the average SW% was 22%.

Really Bad Week (RBW) – When a goalie has ranked below the top 30 goalies for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA), and has not gotten a shutout. These are weeks in which it would have been more valuable for your team to not have the goalie rostered/started. Last season, the average RBW% was 23%.

The True Value rankings take into account these three constructs week-in-week-out to evaluate Goalie consistency for your H2H leagues. You can find these rankings here, updated throughout the season.

Here's the top 20 through 13 (of the 26 total) fantasy hockey weeks:

Stats do not include Sunday’s games.

I'm going to first highlight some of the biggest discrepancies between my True Value Rankings and Yahoo's rankings for most multicategory leagues (W, GAA, SV%, SO).

Positive Discrepancies

These goalies have provided more value to fantasy teams than their Yahoo rank leads on.

Adin Hill – Yahoo Rank = 12, True Value Rank = 5

Hill secured himself the 1A starting role in Vegas. Samsonov has been hot of late (see below), earning some alternating starts, but Hill should still command 50-60% of the starts for Vegas through the second half. That is enough to provide plenty of value if he remains consistent. He only has 1 RBW so far and has had 10 QWs (77% of the time). His 4 SWs are also great for when you need a goalie to completely take over the cats or get you that SO. I would gladly rely on Hill as my top goalie the rest of the way to provide consistency.

Ilya Samsonov – Yahoo Rank = 24, True Value Rank = 8

Samsonov has earned alternating starts in Vegas lately as he has been consistently great since Week 7. You have to go back to Week 6 to find his most recent (of 2 total) RBW. Since then, he's had 6 QWs in the seven weeks, with 4 being SWs. If Samsonov can continue to get 1-2 starts a week, he can provide under-the-radar value and consistency on a strong Vegas team. If he is on waivers, I'd be quick to scoop him up.

Andrei Vasilevskiy – Yahoo Rank = 5, True Value Rank = 2

This isn't the biggest discrepancy, but it is worth mentioning that Vasilevskiy has been one of the most consistent fantasy goalies with an 85% QW percentage. He has also had no RBWs so far, causing zero headaches for his fantasy managers. Having a save percentage in the teens (.913) will keep you lower in Yahoo rankings, but it is enough to win matchups if it is consistent (which it is). Vasilevskiy is only second to Gustavsson in True Value through 13 weeks.

Sergei Bobrovsky – Yahoo Rank = 28, True Value Rank = 12

Bobrovsky has an unflattering sub .900 save percentage (.899) and has only 1 SO so far this season. This has resulted in only 2 SWs. He has been consistent though, with only 1 RBW and an 85% QW percentage (the same as Vasilevskiy!) A big reason for his Quality Weeks is his ability to pick up wins on the Panthers while keeping his save percentage and GAA above average. If you own Bobrovsky, you may be surprised to see him outside the top 25 in Yahoo as he has consistently provided some (albeit not outworldly) value to your fantasy teams. If someone sees Bobrovsky as a top 28 goalie, you best be trading for him!

Yaroslav Askarov – Yahoo Rank = 58, True Value Rank = 33, True Value Per Week Rank = 23

With the departure of Mackenzie Blackwood, Askarov has arrived in San Jose. He has played impressively while facing tons of expected goals. He's already saved 5 Goals Above Expected in just 7 games (according to Moneypuck). That is more than Juuse Saros in his 31 games played. Playing on San Jose might make Star Weeks hard to come by, but he does have 1 this past week, making his SW percentage a respectful 20%. He has avoided an RBW, proving his consistency and has picked up 3 QWs in his 5 active weeks. Askarov may have proven himself early and can be the starter on the Sharks the rest of the way. He looks like he can be a consistent goalie in this league.

Negative Discrepancies

Jaxson Stauber – Yahoo Rank = 23, True Value Rank = 49

Stauber burst onto the scene with a shutout in his first game of the season for Utah. Good enough to pick up a Star Week. He had a Quality Start and thus a QW in the next week, but he followed that up with a RBW and could not get a QW this past week. He seems to be a boom-or-bust option, only to stream in a juicy matchup. He should be nowhere near the top 25 in Yahoo's rankings.

Sam Montembeault – Yahoo Rank = 25, True Value Rank = 34

Montembault has been consistently inconsistent this season – a real boom-or-bust. He only has a QW percentage of 38%, just above his RBW percentage of 31%. Of his 5 QWs, 4 of them have been SWs. His great booms aren't very predictable either, as one of his shutouts came against the Oilers. No one would have pegged that matchup as a great stream. Montembeault is definitely the starter on Montreal, but he'll ruin too many of your fantasy weeks to justify owning him in multicategory leagues.

Hottest Goalies

Here I'm just highlighting the hottest goalies in True Value over the past four weeks. The following goalies have had four straight Quality Weeks with no Really Bad Weeks. I am also adding the number of SWs beside them:

Ilya Samsonov – 2 SW

Andrei Vasilevskiy – 1 SW

Logan Thompson – 1 SW

Mackenzie Blackwood – 1 SW

Justus Annunen – 1 SW

Jake Oettinger – 0 SW

Sergei Bobrovsky – 0 SW

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

Follow me on Twitter/X @fantasycheddar for more fantasy hockey advice and updates throughout the season.