As avid readers likely expected, I'm keeping with tradition by following my poll asking whether players who've started better than predicted can stay hot, with another asking if those who've produced below expectations will right their ships. I'll list 20 skaters with (1) their scoring pace through January 3rd games, (2) their 82-game scoring pace based on the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide, and (3) the midpoint between (1) and (2). You're not voting on whether the players will still be able to reach their predicted point total (i.e. (2)), but instead on whether they will end up finishing at or above the midpoint (i.e., (3)), in essence "salvaging" their season.

For example, if a player was predicted to score at an 84-point pace in the Fantasy Guide but thus far is scoring only at a 64-point pace, that's a difference of 20 points, making the midpoint a 74-point pace. To get your vote, you'd need to think the player will finish 2024-25 with a scoring pace of 74+ points. In other words, I'm not asking if a player will rise all the way to the level initially expected, but instead only to something closer to it than where he is now. To be clear, the measuring stick is one's 82 game scoring pace, not his final point total. For players with a midpoint that is not a whole number, they'd need to score above it (i.e., 75 if midpoint is 74.5)

What follows are the 20 voting choices in alphabetical order, with the (1), (2), and (3) data for each. You should vote for however many of them you think will indeed end 2024-25 with a scoring pace at or above their midpoint. The link to cast your votes appears at the end of the column. If you don't see a player here, it's because either he's too close to his predicted pace to make it interesting or so far below it so as to put the midpoint too easily within reach.

Evan Bouchard (Current Scoring pace = 63; Predicted Scoring Pace= 87; Midpoint = 75)

Some might have felt that an 87-point scoring pace was unrealistic, but consider that from the 2023 playoffs through the 2024 playoffs, Bouchard tallied 131 points in 118 games, translating to a scoring pace of 91! For 2024-25 though, he's shooting less, a staggering 17 of his 22 assists have been secondary, and he's not the PPPt magnet we had come to expect. Perhaps Bouchard was just supernova for basically one calendar years' worth of games?

Adam Fox (Current Scoring pace = 62; Predicted Scoring Pace= 81; Midpoint = 71.5)

Amazingly, as Fox nears his 400-game defenseman breakout threshold, he's on pace for his worst season since his rookie campaign. Clearly his 1.6% SH% has to rise; however, his already tiny SOG per game rate has shrunk, making me wonder if his success to date was in some part a by-product those around him. We'll see if he can right his ship at least somewhat.

Dougie Hamilton (Current Scoring pace = 50; Predicted Scoring Pace= 74; Midpoint = 62)

Concern that Luke Hughes would eat into Hamilton's PP time have not been realized; yet the veteran blueliner isn't scoring. Somehow, despite shooting less, with him on pace to average his fewest SOG per game in nearly a decade, Hamilton's SH% is lower than normal. Perhaps he's still getting his timing back after missing much of 2023-24, and will thrive in the second half?

Miro Heiskanen (Current Scoring pace = 40; Predicted Scoring Pace= 70; Midpoint = 55)

After scoring at a 76-point pace in 2022-23, Heiskanen took a step back last season even though it coincided with his 400 game breakout threshold. Many felt it was Thomas Harley syphoning away points. But if so, what's the explanation for 2024-25, since Harley is also underperforming? One key to the rebound is how Heiskanen differs from the underperforming forwards, as Dallas does heap PP time on Heiskanen; yet he has only five PPPts to show for it. That may be the ticket to better numbers.

Roope Hintz (Current Scoring pace = 55; Predicted Scoring Pace= 70; Midpoint = 62.5)

Another Star – and, spoiler alert, not the last – to make the list, Hintz, like Heiskanen has not lived up to expectations since 2022-23. What's more, as a larger frame player, he should be right in the midst of his breakout threshold. Yet he's underperforming. None of his TOIs, SOG rate or SH% suggest he's poised to improve. Although his PP scoring is down, it's not by enough to seemingly set him back on his expected path if he sees a boost there.

Zach Hyman (Current Scoring pace = 55; Predicted Scoring Pace= 85; Midpoint = 70)

It's amazing that Hyman has 11 points in his last 10 games yet still is so far below expecations. What some might forget is that before his amazing 2022-23 and 2023-24 campaigns, Hyman had a full season with th Oilers and managed only a 58-point pace. Granted, he received less PPTOI, but not a whole lot less. He's also shooting the puck a lot less versus his two great seasons, and, perhaps not coincidentally, right at the rate he was for 2021-22. Maybe Hyman's magic run of great production is ending before our eyes?

Roman Josi (Current Scoring pace = 59; Predicted Scoring Pace= 78; Midpoint = 68.5)

One of just four defensemen in the last 35 years to have two point-per-game or better seasons between ages 30 and 33, the other three (Ray Bourque, Larry Murphy, Paul Coffey) started to fare worse right at or near where Josi is now. He's shooting the puck much less but still doing about as well as expected on the PP. It might just be he's slowing due to age, as those three did. 

Nazem Kadri (Current Scoring pace = 58; Predicted Scoring Pace= 72; Midpoint = 65)

Better than a point per game player after Q1 of last season, some felt Kadri had settled into the role of a true #1 center. This season he continues to shoot at a high volume, but his TOI on the PP is down a bit, and he somehow has more goals than assists. Let's also not forget he's 34 years old, with nearly 1000 games under his belt; so perhaps we've seen his best already?

Alexis Lafreniere (Current Scoring pace = 47; Predicted Scoring Pace= 73; Midpoint = 60)

Many believed that last season served to show that only wasn't Laffy a bust, but a player who was poised to live up to his first overall selection. Fast forward to now, and he's lagging behind his pace form last season. He's still not getting PP1 time, but his SOG rate is down and he seems to be an anchor on his line, versus a key member like last season. The Rags don't have better options, so chances are he'll be able to try to play his way out of this; but perhaps Laffy is no better than a 55-point player?

Dylan Larkin (Current Scoring pace = 67; Predicted Scoring Pace= 82; Midpoint = 74.5)

It's no wonder that Larkin's predicted scoring rate was 82, as it's been 80-83 in the last three seasons. But for 2024-25, he's a notch below that rate. It used to be he was able to play above the struggles of his team; however, this season he's being deployed identically yet is taking far fewer SOG and just not racking up the points. Given that he is otherwise on track he seems like a decent bet to reach his midpoint.

Auston Matthews (Current Scoring pace = 79; Predicted Scoring Pace= 102; Midpoint = 90.5)

In and out of the line-up, Matthews hasn't really had a chance to get momentum. Still, his SOG rate is a t a five year low, and his SH% would be a career worst. That is not a good mix. Given his explosive talent and not being so far below his projected scoring rate, it seems more likely he can split the difference over the rest of the season.

Timo Meier (Current Scoring pace = 57; Predicted Scoring Pace= 68; Midpoint = 62.5)

Much like Laffy, expectations were higher for the Meier given how hot he was in Q4, which, in the case of Meier, was 23 points in 20 games, 14 of those points being goals and averaging 3.5 SOG per game. Although Meier is skating wit Nico Hischier, as he was in Q4, he's not on PP1, and isn't forcing the issue, such that he could have a hard time doing better than he is now.

JT Miller (Current Scoring pace = 73; Predicted Scoring Pace= 94; Midpoint = 83.5)

It's difficult to "blame" Miller for his subpar scoring thus far, what with having to step away from the team and then with rumors of supposed locker room squabbling. He's also on pace for his TOI to drop by over a minute for the second straight season and he's not even averaging two SOG per game. He has the talent to right his ship, but he's also a big hitter and on the other side of 30, so this might just be the first signs of his production beginning to wane.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Current Scoring pace = 47; Predicted Scoring Pace= 80; Midpoint = 63.5)

The former first overall pick went from 53 PPPts in 2022-23, to 67 TOTAL points in 2023-24. Still, he has a spot on Edmonton's PP1 sewn up and likely one in the top six as well. So far those have not helped him though, as he's hardly shooting and his PP production, while not anemic, is well below even last year's big step down. Still, with a midpoint that's quite low compared to his predicted rate, it's possible that he can rise enough to reach it.

David Pastrnak (Current Scoring pace = 78; Predicted Scoring Pace= 109; Midpoint = 93.5)

After seemingly erasing worries about him being able to produce at his normal top tier level even without Patrice Bergeron centering him, Pasta is scoring at a level many feared would occur. As with so many on this list, his SOG rate and SH% are both down, which is very much a concern. His usually steady PP production has also waned. Given Pasta's talent, one would be within reason to think he can do well enough to reach his midpoint, although sometimes even the best has an off season.

Elias Pettersson (Current Scoring pace = 68; Predicted Scoring Pace= 95; Midpoint = 81.5)

Those who were worried EP40 eased off the gas pedal once he inked his huge extension must be even more concerned now, as he's again producing well below expectations. Placing aside the effect of supposed friction between him and JT Miller, Pettersson is shooting much less, is losing TOI, and not tallying PPPts. It is true that he doesn't have to be amazing to be able to reach his midpoint, but maybe that is even too tall of an order?

Jason Robertson (Current Scoring pace = 66; Predicted Scoring Pace= 97; Midpoint = 81.5)

Astute readers of my column have seen me several times point to evidence cutting against Robertson being even a point per game player given his subpar deployment in Dallas. But production this low should not be occurring. His SOG rate and SH% are both down, which, to reiterate, is a very bad combination, plus he's not been a major factor on the PP. This might be a lost season for JRob too.

Vincent Trocheck (Current Scoring pace = 51; Predicted Scoring Pace= 72; Midpoint = 61.5)

If you look at Trocheck's scoring, he's followed a pattern of a great season, then two campaigns where he dips, then another great campaign. Last season was one of those great seasons; but even if we factor in him taking a step back, it's a bigger step than in his two prior seasons, plus he is still getting heaps of TOI at ES and on the PP. 

Carter Verhaeghe (Current Scoring pace = 57; Predicted Scoring Pace= 76; Midpoint = 66.5)

After last season, most poolies figured Verhaeghe had officially "arrived" such that he could be counted upon for consistent production at or just under a point-per-game. He's now struggling, leaving some to wonder if he's the player we saw the last two seasons, or if those were lightning in a bottle. His TOI is up a bit, but his SH% down and….you guessed it…. he's shooting less. This is a tough one to predict in terms of how it will unfold.

Mika Zibanejad (Current Scoring pace = 49; Predicted Scoring Pace= 78; Midpoint = 63.5)

The knock again Zibs had been he was amazing sometimes, but then just merely very good. Well this season he's neither, and is on pace for his worst campaign as a Ranger. It might be a chicken and egg situation in that his ice times are down, making it more difficult for him to get back to normal, which he'd seemingly need to do to get more ice time. But he's shooting less too, so this looks to have the makings of a lost season, or perhaps Zibs, just might be slowing.

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If you have a handful or more of these players on your fantasy teams, my condolences to you. But all is not lost, as there is more than half a season for them to get back on track. Which ones will in fact do so? That's what your votes will decide. As a reminder, you should vote for any and all players you believe will have a scoring pace (not actual point total) at or above the listed midpoint between their current scoring pace and their predicted scoring pace. Click here to cast your votes.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

My monthly mailbag runs next week and I have room to answer plenty more questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.