Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

For the last edition of Goldipucks, I followed up my poll about players who'd started stronger than expected by covering three of the 20 skaters who were in the poll. Since I followed it up with a poll asking which players who'd started worse than expected could still salvage their season, I bet you can guess where this is going. Yes, the three skaters (Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox, Jason Robertson) who are being covered today were indeed choices in that poll and now here to see which of them is too cold, but also who is somehow too hot and who is playing at a level that's likely to continue. Read on for the answers, but not before you lock in your guesses. All stats are current for games through January 19th.

Vincent Trocheck (45 GP, 14 G, 15 A, 82 SOG, 21:42 TOI, 10 PPPts, 3:06 PP, 71.9% PP%)

Drafted in the third round, Trocheck was in the NHL to stay by age 22 and fared well from the start, with 53 and 54 points in his first full NHL seasons. Then he made the leap into more elite territory with 75 points while firing 3.5 SOG per game, tallying nearly a PPPt per every third game, and just under two hits per contest. Trocheck's production then fell to the low 50s again the following two seasons, before rising again to a 75-point-pace in 2020-21 in his first season with the Hurricanes. Sure enough, he dipped again for two more seasons before rising to a 77-point-pace in 2023-24. For 2024-25, he's at a 53-point pace. Given his past results, should we assume he'll just stay at this pace for the rest of the season? Maybe not, as signs point to him being at risk of seeing his production fall further.

The previous two times Trocheck received as much ice time per game as he's averaging for this season thus far, he responded with a 75+ point scoring pace. Despite being on track for a career best TOI per game, Trocheck is struggling. His SOG per game is the same as last season, and his PPPt per game rate is not far below, nor is his PPTOI per contest, which begs the question that even if we account for the "Trocheck curse" of never following a great season with another, why would he be at risk of doing even worse than he is now?

It really boils down to metrics. The team's 8.9% SH% at 5×5 while Trocheck is on the ice is his second highest rate of the past four seasons, below last season but well above the 7.1% rate he had in his previous 75+ point pace season. With the average of his prior four seasons being just under 8.4%, that rate is more likely to drop than rise, which, if it was to occur, would cost him points.

Beyond that, Trocheck's OZ% is 57.0%, which although not sky high, is well above any of his prior four seasons. What was it in his most recent 75+ point scoring pace campaigns? Try 52.6% and, amazingly, 42.0%. Although the latter suggests he can score despite a very low OZ%, he only played 47 games that season, such that if he'd played more, then most likely the low OZ% would've caught up to him. Thus, since this rate is far more likely to drop than rise, that puts him at realistic risk of faring worse over the rest of the season.

Not surprisingly, Trocheck's overall IPPs in his 75+ point seasons have been his best three in recent years. He sits now though at 51.8%, which is indeed low but not really that low, as the season after his 2020-21 scoring burst it was 53.7%, and his scoring pace was 52, or even lower than it is now.

Looking at his IPP on the PP does nothing to allay concerns. That's because it's actually high for him, at 55.6%, after being only 41.4% last season and 47.2% and 33.3% in the two prior seasons. It was not always this way though, as earlier in his career Trocheck had a stretch of five seasons out of six where it was 60.0% or higher, and even 72.1%+ twice. But with his low percentage of late, even last season, it seems like Trocheck is not a points magnet on the PP. Although his PPPt per game pace is down versus last season, it's likely still too high given his recent track record.

Also, although Trocheck is shooting at an identical rate as last season, his SH% is higher not just as compared to 2023-24, but his career rate. There's another area where, if anything, things are apt to get worse versus better or staying the same. Although it is a very, very minor point, Trocheck has a SHG this season, his first SHP in four seasons. That gave him a bit of a boost that won't likely recur.

Trocheck also is a hitter. This is great when he's also producing, especially like he was in several fantasy categories. But Trocheck is now 31 years old; and as I've pointed out in this column in several prior instances, forwards who hit a lot tend to see their scoring drop at right around age 30. Yes, he was 30 last season, but so too were JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad, who have been the other notable scoring and hitting centers in recent seasons. All three are doing considerably worse this season, and once the bottom drops off for players like this, it tends to drop HARD. Of course past precedent does not predict future outcomes; however, this is an added source of worry.

For those who expected Trocheck's decline this season based on his past results, you likely steered clear of him on draft day, or perhaps sold high in the offseason. If you still have Trocheck though, and are banking on a rebound, I think that is unlikely, and in fact I'd expect him to see his rate of production actually downtick, to perhaps below even a 50-point pace. As such, he seems to be TOO HOT and I'd give him a rating of 7.75. Let's stay in the big apple for our next player…..

Adam Fox (45 GP, 2 G, 32 A, 73 SOG, 23:42 TOI, 14 PPPts, 3:11 PP, 73.9% PP%)

Given his NHL success, many might forget Fox was not initially considered a top prospect, as he was drafted 66th overall. However, he was cumulatively better than a point per game player in three seasons at Harvard, then went directly to the NHL without any time in the minors. Fox was quite decent his first season, with 42 points in 70 games, but in his sophomore campaign he ignited for 47 points in 55 games, becoming the undisputed PP QB for the Rangers. Since then he's had three seasons of a 72+ point scoring pace, culminating in him hitting the point per game mark for the first time in 2023-24. Despite him being right at his 400-game defenseman breakout threshold, he's taken a rather large step back so far this season. Can he right his ship, and up his scoring over the rest of 2024-25? I think it's safe to say the answer is yes.

Let's start right away with player comparables. Fox had a scoring rate of 0.85 points per game or higher in four of his first five seasons while playing 55+ games in each. If we go all the way back to 1990-91, only five defensemen did so twice, and none three times! But there was one who also did so four times. Perhaps you've heard of him….Cale Makar. Of course these comparables are given as food for thought, not as being necessarily predictive; however, that is about the finest company in which one can find themselves.

Let's not stop the comparisons there though. Fox scored at a rate of .85+ points per game in all those seasons despite never once averaging even 2.1 SOG per game. If we again go back to 1990-91, we see that there were only five instances IN TOTAL of ANY defensemen scoring at that high a rate despite shooting that little. Yes, only five times has it happened in 35 years, meaning Fox himself achieved this feat almost as many times as every other rearguard combined over a 35-year period. We should be worried then, right? Maybe not. I'd be concerned if Fox had only scored at that rate despite shooting so little maybe twice and we were forecasting his future. But him having now done so four times just might mean he's an aberration.

Still, Fox's paltry SOG rate is low for even him this season, as it currently sits at 1.6 per game. The good news is that is weighted down by Q1, when he had a measly 28 SOG in 21 games. In Q2 he was back to 40 SOG in 21 games, or right near his average. He's trending better, which, in turn, bodes well for him to score better. We also can't ignore Fox's 2.7% shooting percentage. Yes, at 12.4% last season it was clearly high for him, but this is way too low, and indicative of him having not scored two or even three more goals thus far. That should normalize, and with it his scoring rate should improve.

Also, although Fox is taking the ice for a comparable percentage of his team's PP time versus last season, his PP TOI per game is down by about 20 seconds. Over time that makes a difference. It might be the Rangers will keep drawing fewer penalties over the rest of the season; but this is an area where chances are things will improve more so than stay the same or even get worse, with Fox standing to benefit.

Fox also is enjoying his highest ever OZ% at 63.9%. I know what you're thinking – why, then, is he not scoring even better? For one, his 5×5 team shooting percentage is 8.5% after having been 9.0-9.4% in three of the prior four seasons. If he continues to be deployed this favorably, the tide should turn in his favor with respect to scoring.

Fox's overall IPP, at 54.0%, is right in the 50-60% range it's been his entire career. But his PP IPP stands 73.7% thus far, which would mark a career best. He just needs help from those who are on PP1, as the Rangers are converting on 18.6% of their PP opportunities, which is sharply down from 26.6% last season. Although there no way they rise all the way back to where they were for 2023-24, inching upward to 20% at least is foreseeable, with Fox standing to see gains if indeed it does occur.

Fox also is being shortchanged on secondary assists, as a mere 13 of his 32 helpers have been secondary assists. To put that in perspective, the average secondary assist rate of the six d-men with more assists than him as I write this have an average secondary assist rate of 50.8%, with the lowest among them being 45.9%. Fox should have nabbed quite a few more secondary assists, and likely will do so in the second half. 

Fox's production does not have many comparables, but him having proven himself over the course of four seasons shows precisely that results can, and in this case certainly do, mean more than what "should" happen based on prior comparables. That, plus Fox's low SH% and Secondary Assist rate, plus the Rangers having scored fewer PPGs, suggest Fox has room to score quite a bit more over the rest of the season, making his 2024-25 thus far TOO COLD, and giving him a rating of 1.75, as he should score at a 75-80+ point rate over the remainder of 2024-25, and likely be back to his usual self when next season rolls around.

Jason Robertson (45 GP, 14 G, 26 A, 118 SOG, 17:57 TOI, 9 PPPts, 3:08 PP, 58.7% PP%)

Grabbed in the second round, JRob stayed in the Canadian Juniors through his teens then posted 47 points in 60 games in 2019-20 in the AHL. But that gave him a chance to secure a spot with the Stars, and he did more than that, to the tune of 45 points in 51 games. Then he rose to an 88-point scoring pace before going supernova in tallying 109 points in 2022-23. But last season was a major step back, with JRob crashing to below even the point per game mark. This season it's been even worse, as despite strong play of late Robertson sits below even a 75-point scoring rate. He has to improve though, right? I wouldn't bank on it.

Robertson is, simply put, a victim of circumstance. He plays for a team that has a surplus of talent among its forward ranks. As such, JRob, despite not even being two seasons removed from having posted 109 points, has an average ice time per game this season which puts him barely within the top 100 forwards who've played 20+ games and his PP TOI, although better, has him outside the top 50. Yet his averages aren't that much below what they were in 2022-23. Why then is there a huge difference in production?

First and foremost, Robertson averaged 3.8 SOG per game in 2022-23, but now is firing only 2.6 pucks on net per contest. Before you think that's the culprit, if we go back to when TOI was first measured in 1997-98, there have been only 20 other instances of a forward who, like JRob, had 300+ SOG despite not averaging 19:00 per game in TOI. Of them though, only five were even point per game players, and two of those were 1.01. The best were Zach Parise and Filip Forsberg, who both scored at a 1.15 point per game rate, which translates to a 94 game pace. However, just as many didn't even average 0.8 points per game! It seems that Robertson's 2022-23 was a outlying season, rather than representative of what should occur if he suddenly shot that much again. Inasmuch as his TOI is lower, and his SOG down, it seems even less strange to see him scoring at the rate he is.

What's more, Robertson is pretty close to maxed out in terms of IPP, as his overall rate is 81.6%, which would be a career best, and on the PP it's 76.9%, which is almost identical to his rate from 2022-23. IPP that high means there is some regression due. Think about it – he is tallying a point on over four out of five goals scored while on the ice! Even in 2022-23 his overall IPP was 76.2%, while last season and 2020-21 it was below 70%. Although I don't see Robertson's IPP nosediving, the chances of it rising are basically zero, and it might fall.

On the plus side, Robertson's 5×5 team SH% is 9.5%, which is not bad at all. This is a player who has never not been in double digits, so that is an area where he could see gains, or at least enough to offset any losses due to IPP. His Secondary Assist rate is 57.7%, which is high, and far above what it was in 2022-23; but with him shooting less, and linemate Roope Hintz having a Cy Young campaign, a high Secondary Assist rate, though definitely not good to see, is not as much of a worry as it might seem.

Where there is concern though is the Stars scoring 3.20 goals per game, placing them in the top ten in the league, meaning they are not underperforming, especially considering that their rate in 2022-23 was 3.48. Even if the team ups its rate, it likely won't be by much, and, in turn, would have little to no added benefit to JRob. In terms of SOG per game, the difference is even smaller – 31.9 in 2022-23 versus 30.6 this season. Ironically if JRob was shooting as much as he did in 2022-23, the rates would be almost the exact same. Long story short, the team around him is not going to all of a sudden catch fire to create a rising tide that will lift Robertson's boat.

Everyone is asking what's wrong with JRob. Well, the answer is….less than it seems. Yes, he's not doing himself any favors by shooting so much less; but as we saw that wouldn't necessarily mean he'd be racking up points. His IPPs are fantastic, and the Stars are not scoring or shooting that much less than they did in 2022-23, and his loss of TOI is also an issue. The reality seems to be that his 2024-25 is JUST RIGHT, and gets a rating of 5.0, as I don't see him doing better or worse over the long haul of the season. 

There is one asterisk though, as in the past five games JRob has had a 19:42+ TOI, and his PPTOI has been 3:59+ in each of his last four. If that continues, then he is too talented not to make gains. My guess is it is occurring since three of the team's top six to start the season are currently hurt; and as more of them return JRob will again be throttled. My advice might be to ride the wave until then, then try to sell to someone who thinks the old JRob is back in full force.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has plenty of room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.