Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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No one drafts a player expecting them to fall short, but the risk of unmet expectations is always looming. The real challenge is figuring out when to stick with a player and when to cut bait. It's easy to lose patience, but some players simply need time to hit their stride. That's the focus of today's edition. Navigating the crossroads of prospect development. Even with the NHL’s influx of young stars, many players still require 4-5 years to realize their potential. The key is knowing who's worth the wait and who isn't. In fantasy hockey, patience might just be your greatest weapon.

This week, I'm breaking down a few players early in their NHL journeys—all from the same team, coincidentally. It was not a planned theme, but it worked out. Maybe I'll continue on with this same approach going forward on my next article. Let me know what you think.

Jack Quinn

After a rocky start, the 23-year-old winger seems to be finding his groove, many thanks to lineup adjustments and improved deployment. From mid-December into the new year, he was red-hot, racking up eight points in five games, including four goals. Over his last 16 games, he's put up 13 points, with five of those being multi-point efforts. He's finally flashing the offensive flair everyone expected.

That said, Quinn's overall numbers—17 points in 36 games—still fall well short of preseason expectations and last year's projected pace. A mix of bad luck and defensive inconsistencies has been holding him back. With a PDO of 988 (below the league average), there is reason to believe he could see some positive regression and his 55% offensive zone start percentage is putting him in position to succeed offensively.

Looking at his expected goals, the potential is clearly there. His xGF/60 of 2.28 shows he's generating quality chances. However, he needs to dial up his urgency defensively. The Sabres are giving up far too many chances in the defensive zone when he's on the ice, and the constant line shuffling isn't doing him any favors either or anyone for that matter.

The Dylan Cozens – JJ Peterka – Quinn line, which has seen the most ice time (20%), has struggled defensively, posting a negative goal differential (5 GF, 7 GA) and poor possession metrics (44.0% CF%). Despite their offensive potential, they have often been pinned in their own zone and unable to transition effectively. Adding a defensively responsible forward or a stronger puck-retrieval presence could potentially help stabilize this line.

Four goals in seven games for Jack Quinn. 🔥#LetsGoBuffalo pic.twitter.com/yvX2DF8eTa

— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) January 5, 2024

On the other hand, the Cozens – Zach Benson – Quinn line has been much more effective, with strong possession numbers (55.6% CF%, 60% SF%) and a positive shot differential. Despite showing promise, they have seen less ice time (66:26) compared to the top line's 101:05. At this point in the season with how the Sabres have fared, giving this line more minutes could lead to better outcomes on both end of the ice.

His individual points percentage (IPP) was an unsustainably high at 86.4% last season and has since dropped to a more normalized 60% this year. Another big factor might be struggling Cozens, who has been getting a lot of attention lately. Not to beat a dead horse here but the constant line changes are not helping, making it tough for players to build any real chemistry. The silver lining here is that Quinn is still seeing consistent ice time, and has also seen an increase in power-play usage which signals continued trust from the coaching staff in a middle to top-six role.

2-0 Sabres. Jack Quinn powerplay one-timer.

It's been all Buffalo so far. Shots 16-3. pic.twitter.com/TR3YIvlyJ6

— Emerald City Hockey (@EmeraldCityHky) January 11, 2025

Looking ahead, Quinn's long-term potential still remains that of a top-six winger even considering missing time due to a major Achillies injury. He may not reach the elite status of a dominant, line-driving star; however, his development as a skilled complementary winger on a top line is well within reach —particularly if he builds chemistry with top-tier talents like Tage Thompson.

Owen Power

Since entering the NHL, his game Owen Power has shown steady growth. This season in particular, he is hitting career highs with a projected 43-point pace. His production has improved year-over-year from 0.43 points per game last season to 0.52 this season, largely due to his growing involvement in scoring plays.

At this point, Power is averaging fewer than two shots per game throughout his career. His Individual Points Percentage (IPP) has increased to 49 this year, reflecting his growing influence on the team's offensive sequences. However, his power-play production still remains in a secondary role, as Dahlin continues to dominate the top-unit minutes.

Power has averaged 1:49 of power-play time per game but has yet to fully capitalize on those opportunities, which naturally makes sense given Buffalo's lineup structure. He has seen some top-unit time with Dahlin in and out of the lineup. However, it ultimately leads back to Power taking a secondary role on the man advantage.

HE'S GOT THE POWER 🔋

Owen Power with a perfect snipe through a screen on the PP pic.twitter.com/Be9fL5SiGi

📢 advertisement:

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) January 18, 2025

At even strength, Power has maintained double-digit team shooting percentages across all seasons (aside from this year, as it's a 9.8%), highlighting his importance at 5-on-5 play. His offensive zone starts have declined over time from his first full season in the NHL at 56.2% down to 51.7%, increasing his defensive responsibilities. I hear the comparison of Power to Dahlin consistently coming up, but I do not quite feel that holds up. Dahlin entered the league as an exceptional talent, with sky-high expectations to become one of the NHL's premier defensemen (and Buffalo's), and look how long it has taken him to come into his own.

Power, on the other hand, was drafted a few years later under very different circumstances albeit number one overall. The pressure on him wasn't to be the Sabres' top-line, power-play quarterback (although there is potential), as they already had expectations of Dahlin filling that role. Plus, Dahlin brings a more aggressive edge to his game, excelling in hits and generating shots. Realistically, Power's transition to the NHL requires time. Unlike many other top-three draft picks, his path to becoming a dominant top-pairing defenseman and power-play staple is a more gradual climb, not an immediate leap.

We have two stars to announce!!

They're both D and they're both Buffalo Sabres!

Bowen Byram becomes the 6th star from the 2019 class.

Owen Power becomes the 1st star to emerge from the 2021 class. pic.twitter.com/tkV7Y4w3ka

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) December 30, 2024

Looking ahead, Power's production is likely to continue trending upward, with a realistic shot at the 50-point mark in the near future. However, Dahlin's role as Buffalo's primary offensive defenseman limits Power's offensive upside especially within the Sabres' current structure. For now, Power's development will depend on the opportunities he is afforded. Power is undeniably a star, well on his way to becoming an outstanding all-around defenseman and a cornerstone of the Sabres’ or any team needing a blue line quarterback for years to come.

Bowen Byram

Much like Power, Bowen Byram's talent and pedigree is undeniable and so is the pecking order in Buffalo on the back end. The slight difference is that Byram gets ice time next to Dahlin.  At his best, Byram has the potential to piggyback on some additional points. However, similar to his time in Colorado, Byram's opportunities in Buffalo are somewhat limited. His health with the Avalanche was a concern, but it's worth noting he hasn't missed time since returning from injury last year, which is a positive sign for his durability.

Since joining the Sabres, his role has expanded, reflected in a career-high 23:11 average time on ice this season. His deployment includes increased power-play (27.7%) and penalty-kill (36.9%) responsibilities. However, Buffalo's blue line is crowded with cornerstone players already discussed above. Byram has primarily been utilized as a top-pairing defensemen with Dahlin at 5v5 which is great place to be.

With Dahlin anchoring the top unit and Power often deployed as the lone defenseman on the second unit, there really is not much left for Byram. His offensive zone start percentage is a well-balanced, while his SOG/60 are 3.2 and scoring chances remain solid.

Byram's trajectory has notably shifted since his time with the Avalanche, where he was primarily in a depth role. In Buffalo, he has a better shot at increased production, especially if his deployment continues to expand. That said, surpassing Owen Power will be a tall order. Power's raw tools and status as a franchise cornerstone gives him the edge, not to mention his salary cap hit.

Bowen Byram's hand-eye 📈📈📈#sabrehood pic.twitter.com/TIEs7DLMDo

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) November 29, 2024

Awesome to see Bowen Byram get on the board versus his old team. Great feed by Zucker, he's got two points already.

A multi-goal lead versus the Avalanche. What could possibly go wrong?pic.twitter.com/USgSbh97Yg

— The Sabre Report (@TheSabreReport) January 3, 2025

Even without prime power-play deployment, I'd expect Byram's production to be in a similar range to Power's plus or minus 5 points. Right now, Byram is on a two-year, $7.7 million deal with a $3.85 million cap hit, set to expire at the end of this season, which is a very good deal for this calibre of player. He will be a restricted free agent after this year, so the Sabres will face a key decision of whether to re-sign him or explore a trade. If he's moved and gets the chance to lead another team's top power-play unit, his offensive numbers could see a major spike.

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Thanks for reading! See you next week. For more content/fantasy hockey analysis, or if there’s a prospect, you’d like me to cover, follow and message me on X @Punters_hockey.