Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Although the fantasy season is paused, now is arguably the best time for you to take a long, hard look at your squads, whether to prepare for the playoffs or to consider your keeper options. Either way, you need to know the story behind the story, and that's what I'll give you in this column, which this month shines a spotlight on Sam Reinhart, Jordan Kyrou and Matt Duchene. Can you land on which of the three has been too hot, versus too cold, or "just right" for 2024-25 thus far? Think it over then read on, and hopefully you were correct on all three. Stats are current through games played prior to the Four Nation's Faceoff.

Sam Reinhart (57 GP, 31 G, 31 A, 149 SOG, 20:12 TOI, 20 PPPts, 3:08 PP, 66.8% PP%)

Amazingly, it's been a decade since the Sabres grabbed Reinhart second overall. But his tenure with Buffalo was a disappointment, as after seeing his scoring rate climb following each of his first three seasons, it peaked at 65, and from there it stayed stuck in neutral, at 61 and 59. Thus it was not surprising to see him dealt to Florida. Once a Panther, he thrived, scoring at an 85-point-pace in his first campaign with the club, but then regressing to only a 67-point-pace. In 2023-24, however, he exploded with 57 goals and 94 points, with an amazing 27 of those goals coming on the PP. But for 2024-25 thus far, he's in the middle of his two best outputs, sitting at a 90-point pace. Is that where he should be? Not quite, as I think he is more like the 95-point player we saw last season, if not even a bit better.

When a player as far into his career as Reinhart ascends to unprecedented heights, we not only look to see if the story checks out, but also that the circumstances which led to him doing so are likely to continue. In the case of Reinhart, this would mark the third season out of four on the Panthers where his scoring pace will fall between 85 and 95 points. But we cannot overlook that he dipped to just a 67-point pace in his second season in 2022-23, despite more TOI than his first with the Panthers. Is that second season an outlier?

Right from the start we see his SH% was 13.6%, versus 17.7% his first season with Florida and 24.5% last season. We all can realize that 24.5% was unsustainably high; however, him being above 20% again this season thus far does suggest that Reinhart is one of a rare breed who seemingly can shoot at a 20% rate. As such, by only being at 13.6% in 2022-23, he cost himself as many as 14 goals. Factor those in, and he gets 81 points in 82 games. Beyond that, Reinhart's OZ% in 2021-22 was 47.6%, whereas in 2020-21 it was 56.0% and last season it was 51.6%, plus for 2024-25 thus far he's at 57.1%., Reinhart's IPPs in 2022-23 also were both below 60%, whereas in 2021-22 they were a few percentage points higher and both last season and for 2024-25 so far, they're above 70%. Lastly, his team 5×5 SH% in 2022-23 was a paltry 6.5%, whereas it was double digits in his other two completed Florida seasons and sits just below that threshold for 2024-25. I think that is more than enough collective data to show 2022-23 for Reinhart was indeed an outlier and should be disregarded in assessing whether Reinhart's 2024-25 has been too hot, too cold, or just right.

In looking at this season's TOI data, and how similar it is to Reinhart's prior two successful seasons, plus this season thus far as well, we should indeed come into this analysis thinking of him as a 85-95 point player. Barring major curveballs, the question likely will boil down to whether Reinhart is more like an 85-point player, as he was in the 2021-22 season, or a 95-point player as he was last season? Or is Reinhart's production sweet spot right in the middle, as it is now? Let's make that assessment.

Yes, Reinhart's SH% last season was astronomical. He is shooting a tad less this season, yet still above 20%. And guess what, 20%+ is not immediately concerning, as this is a player who, other than in 2022-23, has been a 15% or higher shooter going back even to his last two seasons in Buffalo, one of which saw him shoot at a 19.2% rate. Simply put, Reinhart is a player with pinpoint accuracy when it comes to shooting the puck. Seeing 20% this season should not sound alarm bells.

Reinhart is currently at that rate, yet only scoring at a 90-point pace, this despite a TOI that is identical to last season. The difference is 30 seconds of lost PP time despite Reinhart's percentage of PP time only dropping only from 69.4% in 2023-24 to 66.8% in 2024-25. It's a matter of Florida not taking as many penalties. Also, for whatever reason Reinhart's PP TOI per game in Q3 was markedly lower at 2:30 per game, on top of a far lower TOI as well. This might have been by design to not overuse Reinhart, or linemates Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, given that all would be playing in the Four Nation's Faceoff and thus not resting like most NHLers during this time period. But it is almost impossible to envision either of his TOI numbers being this low for any portion of the remainder of the season. As such, these are indicators that Reinhart is in line for a few more points to come.

This season, Reinhart's secondary assist rate is higher than 2023-24, as is his OZ%, although I'm less concerned about these factors than I'd normally be since for secondary assists he was so goal-centric last season it had nowhere to go but up, and it hasn't risen alarmingly. As for his OZ%, that might just be the new normal for him given how much of a weapon he showed he is last season. Also, we need to consider that his 5×5 team SH% is down, plus he has a lower IPP on the PP versus last season. Looking at these at a whole, they too suggest he has points to gain over the rest of the season.

Also, Reinhart is no doubt being helped by playing for one of the best offenses in the entire NHL. A rising tide is for sure lifting his boat. Not only is he a big contributor to the rise, but a rising tide is only a concern if it is unsustainable. There is still room for it to rise more, as all their key metrics are down versus last season, from goals per game (3.27 vs. 3.43), to SOG per game (33.7 vs. 3.43) to, not surprisingly given what was shown above, PP opportunities per game (2.55 vs. 3.27).

In all, the data appears to pretty clearly demonstrate that Reinhart is every bit the real deal notwithstanding his lack of success in Buffalo. We saw pretty clearly that 2022-23 was an outlier for a number of reasons, making it so the only question is where within the 85- to 95-point pace spectrum he should fall. And all things considered, I think it's 95 or even more, as he is not getting realistic benefits he should be, and, as importantly, he stands a very good chance at indeed getting between now and season's end. As such, Reinhart's 2024-25 has been TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 3.25, as I'd expect him to be at, or perhaps even a bit higher than, a 95 point pace by the time the 2024-25 campaign is over.

Jordan Kyrou (56 GP, 23 G, 21 A, 159 SOG, 18:00 TOI, 12 PPPts 2:21 PP, 61.2% PP%)

Drafted in 2016, Kyrou split time between the AHL and NHL in 2018-19 and 2019-20, but had shown enough to be a full time NHLer for 2020-21, scoring at a 52-point rate. Few were expecting his rise all the way to the point-per-game level the following season, only to then see his scoring rate drop in each of the next two campaigns. In 2024-25 it's on target to fall yet again, but only slightly. Is Kyrou renormalizing, or could he rise back if not to the point-per-game level then at least higher than he is now? Actually neither, as he looks to be doing as well as should be expected.

In terms of overall ice time, Kyrou is right at where he's been the past two seasons, which is quite a bit above what he had in 2021-22. Despite taking the ice for a career best 61.2% of his team PP minutes thus far this season, Kyrou's actually PPTOI per game is more than 30 seconds less than either of his past two seasons. Clearly the Blues are taking fewer penalties as compared to last season; but just how many less? Quite a bit fewer it turns out, as they had 250 PP opportunities in 82 games for 2023-24, or more than three per contest, while for 2024-25 thus far they sit second to last in the NHL with only 126 in 56 games. The issue is we're two-thirds into the season, so it might just be they don't do well in this area, or if they see gains it might be a too little too late situation for it to make a major difference in terms of Kyrou's scoring.

Kyrou is shooting less than either of his prior two seasons, but still is at a healthy 2.8 per game, which is above the 2.5 he averaged in his point per game season. But his SH%, while a bit above his past two seasons, is comparable to other campaigns. It might just be that he gets a bit of a boost versus the past two seasons due to being more selective, and thus all things considered does not lose much, if anything in terms of scoring.

Then shouldn't Kyrou be due to fare better in view of a third of his assists being secondary? You'd think so; however, that number is right at his norm. For whatever reason, he is not a player who gets secondary assists. Although that might be a testament to Kyrou's skill, if it is not abnormal we can't expect it to improve, nor, as such, can we expect a scoring boost due to that metric.

Guess what – it's a similar story with his IPPs and OZ%, as both are near his norms over the past two seasons. It's actually quite remarkable how similar they are. With that, one can only further assume that more of the same is on the horizon.

Does the blame lie with his team? In terms of the PP, most definitely; however, they are in the same neighborhoods as last season for goals per game (2.75 this season vs. 2.9 last) and SOG per game (26.8 this season, versus 26.9 last). What does this tell us? Maybe he gets a bit of a boost if somehow his team takes a few more penalties; however, they are not likely to shoot or score more than they are now.

It is worth pointing out, however, that Kyrou has hit five posts and three crossbars, which, although not among the highest in the NHL, is a bit high. Also, what of the fact he has zero empty net points thus far this season? For him, that also is not abnormal, as he had a mere one empty net point in all of 2023-24. Also, percentagewise, Kyrou has taken fewer shots that did not register as a SOG, so he's not likely to see a boost related to that metric.

In all the time I've done Goldipucks, I'm not sure I've seen a more open and shut case of a player doing "just right." Everywhere we look, other than posts and crossbars, SOG rate and PP TOI, Kyrou is right where he was last season. But as I noted, even if those factors lead to him getting a scoring boost, it likely won't be to more than the 67-point rate he had last season. Simply put, what you see is what you get with Kyrou, making his 2024-25 thus far JUST RIGHT, and giving him a rating of 5.0.

Matt Duchene (55 GP, 22 G, 33 A, 100 SOG, 17:20 TOI,179 PPPts, 2:30 PP, 50.1% PP%)

A former third-overall draft pick, Duchene had an up and down early tenure with the Avalanche, peaking at an 81-point pace before his scoring rate fell from there. After that, Duchene's reputation rightfully became that of a player who seemingly only tried hard when he was playing for a new contract. Since coming to Dallas, however, Duchene had settled nicely into a more of a supporting role, where he was scoring well even though he was not a focal point. This season, however, he's upped his scoring rate to the point-per-game level. Is it for real? I'll sum it up by saying hell no, and to read on to see why.

Right off the bat, we see Duchene is shooting at 22.0%. Although that number would not raise eyebrows with Reinhart, it most certainly does with Duchene, whose SH% has been all over the map in his career, yet only once twice above 15.0%, and never higher than 18.9%. I am willing to consider Duchene is becoming more of a selective – and, with that, more accurate – shooter, as for the second season in a row his SH% is rising while his SOG rate is down. But still, for him to go from 13.1% at 2.4 SOG per game, to 14.5% at 2.2, to 22.0% at 1.8, is too much of a jump. So right there I'd say Duchene has tallied at least a handful of goals he should not have.

Also, Duchene's 17 PPPts in 55 games is already tied for the third highest mark of his entire career, with his better outputs being 21 in 81 games as a rookie in 2009-10, and 29 in 78 games when he scored at a 90-point pace with Nashville in 2021-22. But 2021-22 is not that long ago, so why can't this be fathomable? For one, Duchene was taking the ice for 64.2% of Nashville's PP minutes that season, and 3:10 per game, versus 50.1% and 2:20 this season. Also, this season Duchene has 20 PPSOG in 55 games, versus 64 in 78 games in 2021-22 and even 38 in 81 games in 2009-10. 

His PP SOG rate this season is light years below what it was in 2021-22, and below even the one per every other game rate in 2009-10, when although he only saw 49.8% of his team's PP time, that still amounted to 3:03 per game. Simply put, his PP scoring rate cannot be sustained.

Although we did not need further evidence to confirm Duchene' is running too hot on the PP, it certainly does exist in the form of Duchene's incredible 89.5% IPP on the PP, meaning that of the 19 PPGs scored while Duchene was on the ice, he had a point on 17. Even the most elite forwards are only in the 80-85% range, and those are the best of the best. Duchene, on the other hand, had only once previously been above 70%, and even in his 2021-22 huge season he was below 60%, as he has been in five of the previous six seasons. Yes, the one where he wasn't, was 2023-24, when it was 64.0%; however, even if we buy that it can be on the rise, this is far, far too much for it to increase.

It doesn't even stop there, as Duchene's 11.1% 5×5 team SH%, although not astoundingly high, would mark the second-best rate of his career, behind only 11.5% in 2021-22. Yes, it was 10.1% in each of the last two seasons, so I can buy that he is a positive influence while on the ice; but not this much, especially when factoring n his overall IPP of 74.3%. Yet his IPP overall was 73.0% last season, so it does seem that Duchene is not slowing; however, he also is not a point-per-game player, or at least under these circumstances.

Speaking more about those circumstances, Duchene is logging 17:20 per game. Of the 396 instances from 2000-01 through 2023-24 of forwards who averaged a point per game or better in 60+ games, just 25 did so without averaging 18:00 per game, and a mere six with a TOI per game lower than what Duchene's is now. To say he's bucking the odds would be quite an understatement.

If you've read this far, you know that Duchene's 2024-25 has been TOO HOT; however, while I was prepared to say the bottom will drop out from under him, he did have a strong overall IPP last season, and it is plausible he is becoming a better shooter by being more selective. If we remove the clearly ballooned PPPt total, and subtract some for his SH% and scoring rates being too high, I think we're left with someone who could plausibly be at or near the level he was the last two seasons, namely a 65-point guy who seemingly has reinvented himself as a playmaker as he's aging. Instead of giving him one of the highest ratings I've ever given, as I thought I might once I dug in a bit, I'm only going as high as 9.25, since I do feel he is a legit 60+ point player, with a better chance at hitting 65 than falling to 55.

***********************

Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has plenty of room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.