Ramblings: Panthers Punch Ticket to Round 3; End of an Era in Toronto; Value from Lindholm, Montembeault & More Next Year (May 19)

Brennan Des

2025-05-19

Florida 6, Toronto 1, (Panthers win series 4-3)

The Panthers punched their ticket to Round 3 with a dominant 6-1 victory over the Leafs on Sunday night. Although Toronto showed resilience on a small scale as they survived an early barrage from Florida and put together a solid first period, the Leafs weren't able to replicate that resilience on a larger scale as they surrendered three goals in seven minutes during the second, getting outshot 18-5 in that frame. Max Domi tried to spark his team with an early third period tally, but Eetu Luostarinen quickly extinguished that spark with a goal of his own 47 seconds later. Sam Reinhart put the nail in Toronto's coffin minutes later, and then Brad Marchand, as he's done many times in his career, danced on Toronto's grave with an empty-net tally. 

All three members of Florida's third line lit the lamp on Sunday, as in addition to the aforementioned Marchand and Luostarinen, Anton Lundell also scored. That line has been excellent this postseason, holding an impressive 57% share of expected goals and outscoring opponents 11 to 2 despite starting more shifts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone (via Natural Stat Trick). 

A final note on Marchand: the conditional second-round pick that the Bruins acquired for him will become a first round pick because Florida won two playoff rounds and Marchand appeared in more than 50% of the team's games. As if Boston needed another reason to love that rat. 

GM Bill Zito was made to look like a genius on Sunday, as like Marchand, Zito's other deadline acquisition Seth Jones had a strong game. Jones skated a game-high 23:42, posting a goal and an assist. 

This is the kind of game that prompts change, but that's something we've said after so many of Toronto's disappointing playoff exits. Change will be harder to escape this time around as Mitch Marner and John Tavares are entering free agency. I think Marner is an excellent two-way player, but after falling short of expectations so many times in the playoffs, it's clear Toronto isn't the right market for him. 

Based on post-game responses, it seems Tavares has a greater desire to stay in Toronto than Marner right now. Of course, there will be other factors like cap space to consider.  

Speaking of free agents, Nick Robertson and Matthew Knies will be restricted free agents this summer. Robertson can't be happy with the lack of opportunity he's seen in Toronto, but perhaps there's room for him in the top-six with Marner likely gone? Marner's departure also opens up a spot on PP1, so it'll be interesting to see how the Leafs decide to fill that hole. Marner posted around 30 power-play points a year in recent seasons, so his absence could hurt other members of PP1 if adjustments aren't made – but I'm sure we'll dissect that more this summer. Regarding Knies, that's a player Toronto will do everything to keep long term because the skill, finishing ability, and effort level he displayed this postseason were all top tier. He played through an injury in Games 6 & 7, but was consistently a force to be reckoned with before that. 

As the team's captain, Auston Matthews will be criticized for Toronto's disappointing exit. However, as I discussed last week, he's most likely dealing with an injury that's taken some punch out of his usually lethal shot. Keep an eye on media coverage during Toronto's locker room cleanout in the coming days, because that's probably when we'll learn more about Matthews' injury. Let's hope it's nothing long term that extends into next season. 

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Last week, we started talking about players that got hot late in the regular season, potentially increasing their fantasy stock for the upcoming campaign. Here are a few more players who fall in that category: 

Elias Lindholm 

Elias Lindholm paced for 60 to 80 points in five-straight seasons with the Flames. Since then, he's failed to crack a 50-point pace in back-to-back campaigns, bouncing from Calgary, to Vancouver, to Boston. That's the surface-level story, but a deeper look provides a source of optimism. 

Lindholm's first year with the Bruins was a disappointment overall, but he showed new life down the stretch with 11 points in his final 11 appearances. During that period, he spent most of his minutes beside David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie on Boston's top line. Through 79 minutes together, that trio outscored the opposition 16-4, dominating opponents in shot attempts and high danger scoring chances (via Natural Stat Trick). Now, the sample is relatively small, and results are skewed by an unsustainably on-ice shooting percentage of 31%, but with such favourable results, there's good reason for that trio to reunite next year (assuming Geekie re-signs as an RFA). Lindholm is Boston's second-highest paid forward at $7.75 million a year. Even if he isn't part of the team's long term plans, it makes sense to put him in a position to succeed so that they can get some return on their investment. He's carried momentum from the regular season into the IIHF World Championship, where he's tied for the tournament lead in scoring (as of Sunday night) with ten points in six games. Who else has a share of that lead, you ask? Czech superstar and Bruins' linemate David Pastrnak. 

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Will Smith 

This past year was a big one for Will Smith as he celebrated the release of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. You may think I've confused the 20-year-old hockey player with the 56-year-old Hollywood star, but Bad Boys: Ride or Die is actually my name for the Sharks' duo of Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. Those two flashed some impressive chemistry down the stretch, enabling Smith to rack up 30 points in his final 34 appearances while averaging 17:40 a night. It was a massive step up from Smith's first 40 outings, where he tallied a modest 15 points and was limited to 14:19 per game. San Jose has a long way to go, and Smith has more to learn, but he's shown he can produce offensively in the big leagues. He'll benefit from sharing the ice with one of the NHL's top young talents in Celebrini. 

Matvei Michkov

A 63-point campaign from a 20-year-old rookie is outstanding, but doesn't quite capture how bullish you should be on Michkov based on his performance down the stretch. He racked up 29 points in his final 27 games of the season (1.07 p/g), skating over 18 minutes a night and averaging 3.4 shots per game. That stands in stark contrast to his first two thirds of the campaign, which featured 16 minutes, two shots, and 0.64 points per game. Michkov's ice time was especially limited in the middle stretch of the season, as coach John Tortorella tried to rein in the youngster's riskier playstyle, attempting to fit it into the team's more structured, defensively responsible system. The thing is, new coach Rick Tocchet's style is more similar to Tortorella's than it is different, which means Michkov probably won't get complete freedom to reach the height of his offensive potential. That being said, we've seen what Michkov is capable of when given enough opportunity. If his defensive game can mature to a point where Tocchet is comfortable enough with the risk/reward ratio that he'll roll Michkov out for 19 minutes a night, then the young star should be a valuable asset in fantasy leagues next year. 

Cam Fowler

There's no doubt that Fowler turned some heads after he led the Blues in scoring this postseason, racking up ten points over seven games. Still, when you're sitting at the draft table next season, you may only have time for a quick glance at overall stats. In Fowler's case, you'll see he matched a career-best 48-point pace last year. A solid pace, but not one that has you falling out of your seat to draft him. However, if you look at his production after he was shipped from Anaheim to St. Louis, you'll see that after taking a few games to get acclimated, he racked up 36 points over 49 appearances with the Blues. That translates to 61 points over 82 games. During that stretch, he led St. Louis' blueliners in power-play opportunity, posting a 51.5% share of the team's total PP time. Sure, his output may have been slightly inflated by lofty individual and team shooting percentages, but I think a full season with the Blues would allow him to be an underrated source of offense in fantasy leagues. It's a shame that St. Louis splits time pretty evenly between their first and second PP units, but Fowler led the team in power-play time and production this postseason, so hopefully that leads to even more opportunity and output next year. 

Sam Montembeault 

The 28-year-old netminder rightfully received recognition for a strong season as Montreal's bonafide starter. However, if you're only looking at common season-long metrics – a 2.80 GAA and .902 save percentage – you won't be able to appreciate just how good he was. Over the final two months of the campaign, Montembeault led the league with 18.79 goals saved above expected (via Evolving Hockey). During that stretch, he went 13-3-4, posting a 2.48 GAA and .912 save percentage. He carried that strong play into the playoffs before tearing two muscles in his groin. Despite his promising performance, I don't expect Montembeault to fly off draft boards because he and the team in front of him aren't as proven as other options across the league. 

Now, although this young Canadiens' team is still learning and therefore prone to defensive mistakes, they have a rapidly developing blueline – headlined by the underrated duo of Lane Hutson and Kaiden Guhle. No, Montreal won't provide the defensive protection that LA or Minnesota would, but I think the Habs can finally be a middle of the pack team that doesn't hinder Montembeault's numbers. Although Jacob Fowler has been tearing up the AHL playoffs, I don't think he or Cayden Primeau are ready to oust Montembeault from the starting role just yet. Keep a close eye on news about Monty's groin injury recovery, because that could influence the start he has next year. Nevertheless, I see him as someone that should be able to outperform his fantasy draft position in 2025-26.

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Thanks for reading! Hope you have an awesome week ahead!

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