Analytics Advantage: Wrapping the Second Round of the NHL Playoffs with PDO, Shots, Blocks, and More

Stas Pupkov

2025-05-22

With the second round wrapped, this edition of Analytics Advantage walks through all five Tableau views defining what each quadrant represents, then highlighting who stood out and why.

Expected Goals Against (xGA) vs Save Percentage (SV%)

Here we split the ice into four zones by league-average xGA (horizontal) and SV% (vertical):

Top-Left ("Stingy"): below-average danger funnel but above-average efficiency.

Top-Right ("Workhorse"): under constant fire yet still saving at a high clip.

Bottom-Left ("Soft"): limited danger but underperforming on stops.

Bottom-Right ("Leaky"): facing heavy danger and posting a sub-par save rate.

In Round 2, Stuart Skinner and Frederik Andersen fit that lockdown mold, facing fewer dangerous shots while posting elite SV%. Jake Oettinger and Logan Thompson shouldered the biggest xGA loads yet still delivered top-tier saves, demonstrating true "workhorse" grit. Sergei Bobrovsky, tested relentlessly by Toronto's attack, landed in the "leaky" zone but nonetheless did just enough to outduel Joseph Woll and advance his club.

xGA vs Low/Med/High-Danger SV%

We repeat the four-quadrant split in each danger tier to isolate where goalies excel or struggle on routine, mid-, and high-danger looks:

Strong-Quiet: (low xGA, high SV%)

Under Siege: (high xGA, high SV%)

Routine Woes: (low xGA, low SV%)

High-Fire Leak: (high xGA, low SV%)

Frederik Andersen's high-danger SV% towers above the field – no goalie faced tougher chances and turned aside more of them. Jake Oettinger owns the mid-range panel with consistently above-average stops on 5–15-foot looks. Yet even "easier" chances exposed flaws: Logan Thompson, Calvin Pickard and Joseph Woll all dipped below the mean on low-danger saves, a red flag if those routine pucks continue slipping through next season.

Blocks per 60 minutes vs Shots per 60 minutes

This scatter divides players by how much they shoot versus how much they block:

High-High: two-way workhorses firing and clogging equally.

Low-High: pure shooters who rarely block.

Low-Low: sheltered role players with minimal activity.

High-Low: defensive specialists clogging lanes, not shooting much.

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Nikolaj Ehlers led the league in shot volume, while Sam Reinhart paired heavy shot attempts with strong block totals, being textbook two-way engines. Veterans like Chris Tanev and several Capitals and Maple Leafs defenders clustered among the shot-block grinders. Meanwhile, those logging few pucks either way slipped into the bottom-left, a reminder of how usage shapes impact.

Offensive Zone Starts vs Defensive Zone Starts

Here we measure deployment trust: zone-start% on X versus Y:

Balanced All-Situations: (high OZS, high DZS)

Defensive-Only: (low OZS, high DZS)

Sheltered: (low OZS, low DZS)

Attack-First: (high OZS, low DZS)

Coaches leaned most heavily on names like Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Seth Jones, deploying them in every end-game scenario. True shutdown specialists (Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Adam Henrique, Cody Ceci and co.) sat firmly in the defensive-only zone. On the flip side, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi saw offensively tilted usage, while a handful of role players posted minimal starts either way  Shane Gostisbehere's near-100% offensive deployment was the quirkiest outlier.

PDO vs Corsi-For% (CF%)

This map pairs goaltending and shooting luck (PDO on X) against shot-attempt share (CF% on Y):

Serious Drivers: (high CF%, high PDO)

Possession Creators: (high CF%, low PDO)

Fortuitous Flyers: (low CF%, high PDO)

Stranded: (low CF%, low PDO)

Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe embodied the "driver" profile, controlling play and cashing in when it mattered. Alex Ovechkin, the lone "creator," drove shot share for Washington but saw pucks refuse to bounce his way. The Maple Leafs roster largely languished in the "stranded" zone, struggling both in possession and puck-luck, one more signal that management will need to reshape the roster to compete at this level.

Each view is fully interactive: use the Team, Position and TOI dropdowns to filter, hover or click a logo to highlight, then read the quadrant definitions above to know exactly what style of performance you're seeing. Let me know if you'd like any of the quadrant definitions or narrative tweaked

Thanks for checking it out. If you've got questions or want to dig into something specific, you can always find me @DH_staspup. See you next week.

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UPCOMING GAMES

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
NIKOLAJ EHLERS
DANILA YUROV MIN
ZACK BOLDUC MTL
PORTER MARTONE PHI
JOE VELENO

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
CHRIS HOLT
SPENCER KNIGHT CHI
SAM MONTEMBEAULT MTL
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency SEA Players
20.6 EELI TOLVANEN CHANDLER STEPHENSON JORDAN EBERLE
19.6 JADEN SCHWARTZ KAAPO KAKKO MATTY BENIERS
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