Scoring 40 goals in the NHL takes more than just skill. You need the right mix of usage, opportunity, consistency, strong shot volume, and a shooting percentage that holds up. Some players hit that number regularly. Others are just below, trending in the right direction or waiting for the right pieces to fall into place.

None of the 10 players below have hit 40 goals yet, but every one of them has a real shot this season. A few have knocked on the door before. Others are trending up and finding the right situations. Not all of them will get there, and a couple are long shots, but each one is worth keeping an eye on. Some names might surprise you, and that's the point. This list is meant to spark debate.

Enjoy!

10. Cale Makar – Colorado Avalanche

Cale Makar is the defenseman most likely to reach 40 goals, thanks to his strong offensive game. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 26 goals, hitting a career-high of 30 in 80 games once. His shot volume is elite, with nearly three shots per game, and he plays around 25.5 minutes each night, as one of the two key offensive play drivers on the Colorado Avalanche. Moving from 30 to 40 goals is a big leap and far from guaranteed, but if any defenseman can do it, Makar is the one.

9. Tim Stutzle – Ottawa Senators

Tim Stützle's 39-goal season in 2022-23 came on the back of aggressive 5v5 play, a 17.1 S%, and strong power play efficiency. While his goal totals dipped the past two seasons, the slide was more about lower offensive zone starts, not enough puck luck, and a slight drop in PP output. His role has stayed consistent, and his IPP on the power play of 66%–69% shows he is the central piece. If he ramps up his shot volume with a shooting percentage around 15%, he is firmly back in the 30–35 goal range. Add a little puck luck, and he is in the running.

8. Wyatt Johnston – Dallas Stars

Johnston's development continues on a steady upward path, finishing with 33 goals and 71 points, an impressive output for a 21-year-old. His S% was high but sustainable, and while his 5v5 numbers were solid, they did not quite reach dominance. Playing alongside Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene has clearly helped, though both are getting older. A move to the top line might be what Johnston needs to truly push toward 40 goals. His shot generation, at 7.8 SOG/60, is strong, but his 47.2% offensive zone starts indicate he is not consistently getting prime scoring opportunities. The foundation is there, but breaking 40 goals will likely depend on more favorable deployment.

7. Brandon Hagel – Tampa Bay Lightning

After a breakout season with 35 goals and 90 points, Hagel's expanded role is encouraging. He averaged nearly 21 minutes per night, up from 19 minutes, and saw a significant bump in PP TOI, handling 58.1% of Tampa's PP minutes compared to just 25.1% the year before. Although that did not translate into power-play goals, he had zero PPG despite 11 power-play points. If he starts converting those chances and gets more involved, it could make up for any dip in even-strength production coming this season. If he maintains or improves on this pace, Hagel could push toward 40 goals next season.

6. Dylan Larkin – Detroit Red Wings

What stands out most about Larkin is that he is already doing a lot right. His shot volume is healthy at 233 SOG and his ice time is right where you want it, over 20 minutes a night with prime PP deployment. He is also the engine of Detroit's offense, however, his 5v5 xG% has hovered around 50%, which means he is not consistently out-chancing the opposition. That said, Larkin does not need a huge leap in production, if he pushes his shot total to 260+ and maintains or slightly improves his shooting percentage, he could hit that milestone.

5. Sebastian Aho – Carolina Hurricanes

Sebastian Aho has averaged 36 goals over his last three full seasons and twice hit a career-high of 37, showing he is already operating just below the 40-goal tier. Despite a dip to 29 goals last season, his 14% S% and 2.6 shot rate has stayed relatively close to his career average. What could push him over the top next season is the addition of Nikolaj Ehlers. If the chemistry with Ehlers clicks early in the season and Carolina plays faster off the rush, Aho has a real shot at pushing past his usual ceiling.

4. Matt Boldy – Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov's injury likely limited Matt Boldy's efficiency and shot quality. Even so, Boldy scored 29 goals in 75 games, pacing for 32 over a full season. He recorded a reduced 10% S% on 271 shots, the highest SOG of his career while averaging 3.3 shots per game. Kaprizov's presence draws defensive attention, creating more space for Boldy to work. He also boosts Minnesota's top power-play unit, and without him, opposing teams can focus more on Boldy. Boldy still produced 10 power-play goals and 25 points, but with a healthy Kaprizov, that output could be higher. A full season together makes a 40-goal Boldy a realistic target, not just wishful thinking.

3. Jordan Kyrou – St. Louis Blues

Kyrou scored 36 goals last season on 239 shots, posting his most efficient S% at 15.1%, slightly above his 13.6% career average. Playing over 17 minutes a night with heavy time on the top power-play unit, he leads the team with a 72.2 IPP, showing he is involved in most scoring plays when on the ice. On the power play, his seven goals and 17 points suggest there is still room to grow if the Blues' man advantage becomes more consistent. The real lever here is his shot volume, if that increases slightly, he could be on track for 40.

2. Cole Caufield – Montreal Canadiens

Cole Caufield is establishing himself as one of the NHL's top goal scorers, finishing with 37 goals on a strong 15.5% shooting percentage. Although slightly above his career average, his quick release, skill in tight spaces, and power-play role indicate this level is sustainable. He averaged 2.9 shots per game, down from 3.8 the previous season, but maintained steady ice time at 18:05 and posted career-best 5v5 numbers. The key variable going forward is Ivan Demidov. This dynamic Russian forward could shift Montreal's offensive balance, especially on the power play, potentially creating more opportunity or increasing competition for touches.

1. Clayton Keller – Utah Mammoth

Clayton Keller has been one of the league's most consistent scorers, averaging 34 goals over the last three seasons. What stands out is how much he is relied on in every offensive situation. His power-play usage jumped to 74% last season, and he remained a key contributor with an 80.4% IPP. At even strength, he posted a career-high expected goals total of 55.16 and started 61% of his shifts in the offensive zone. With added support from JJ Peterka and continued top-line minutes, Keller looks poised to build on his steady goal-scoring pace.

Thanks for reading! See you next week! For more fantasy hockey content and analysis, follow me on X @Punters_hockey. If you have any questions about your team or a trade? My DMs are always open, happy to help!