The 2025-26 Fantasy Guide is now available for download! Projections by team and by point totals, sleepers, drafted players, rookies, goalies, advanced stats, and much more! Get it at the Dobber Sports Shop on its own or as part of a package.

The three topics I wrote about specifically for the fantasy guide were injuries, goalies, and contract year for each team. I shared some of my observations regarding injuries and goalies in earlier Ramblings, specifically on Injury Lists and Band-Aid Boys by Team and The Five Most Interesting Goalie Situations. Today I'll shift over to contract year and focus on some expiring contracts of note.

One of the many topics provided in the guide is identifying players with expiring contracts by team, both RFA and UFA. Two reasons we provide this information:

1. Players in a "contract year" have additional incentive to perform. That's not to suggest that a player locked up to a lucrative long-term deal will ease off the gas pedal, but both livelihood and legacy are at stake when a player is without a contract for next season. For a younger player, it's a chance to earn a sizable raise on a current entry-level contract. For an older veteran, it may simply be about earning at least one more NHL contract. That incentive may lead to better results, but it could also put pressure on the player.
2. Salary cap leaguers need to be aware because a potential raise for the player could affect keeper decisions. Just like the real NHL, salary cap fantasy leaguers benefit from players who are well outperforming their salary. But players won't play on bargain contracts over the long term – they will need to be paid at an annual salary that reflects their ability. Fantasy league rules may also factor into who can be kept and who cannot, but knowing which contracts are about to expire can help you plan ahead for next season. For example, I've learned firsthand that salary cap leaguers may decide to shop players whose salaries are about to increase (I've been on the receiving end of trades like this recently). 

For a list of expiring contracts, go to the Upcoming RFAs and Upcoming UFAs report on Frozen Tools. These reports just list the players on expiring contracts and their stats, listed according to whether their contract status of their next contract is RFA or UFA.

I don't have information on how a player typically performs in a contract year, but that research might be out there somewhere.

Here are what I believe are the most significant projected 2026 UFAs, the latest information on contract discussions, and what their chances might be of returning to their existing clubs next season. Of course, their fantasy value could change with a move to a new team, so this bears watching. Because of the new CBA, all of these players could sign an eight-year contract if they re-sign this season, but the number could drop to six years if they sign as free agents elsewhere next summer.

SHOULD RE-SIGN

Connor McDavid

Yeah, let's start there. In an interview, GM Stan Bowman admitted that he has no timeline for a McDavid extension and wanted to give him space, but he expects to have conversations soon. No need to panic, Oilers fans. There's plenty of offseason left. Four years seems to be a more likely timeframe for a new extension as opposed to 7-8 years, as the shorter term makes it more ideal for teams to pay for future performance than past performance when a player is in his prime. Perhaps it's surprising that McDavid doesn't receive the maximum term anyway, but McDavid is already 28. I doubt that McDavid gets to free agency next July 1, but anything is possible if Wayne Gretzky switched teams while he was still in his 20s. Leon Draisaitl now earns $14 million per season, and I'd expect McDavid to receive even more.

Jack Eichel

Drafted immediately after McDavid in 2015, McDavid and Eichel also match up with the same potential UFA year. Golden Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon re-signed Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb during the season, so there's no reason to panic if Eichel isn't re-signed by opening night. The Knights have a history of turning over players to chase the shiny new toy, but would they really do that with a player like Eichel? Mitch Marner's new deal pays him $12 million per season, which is a number that Eichel could surpass.

Kyle Connor

Unlike Nikolaj Ehlers, Connor is believed to be open to extending with the Jets. If it still seems like the US-born Connor would leave Winnipeg, keep in mind that both Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck had signed extensions to stay there. Currently a bargain to the Jets with a $7.5 million cap hit, Connor should receive eight digits in his next annual salary – perhaps in the $11 to $12 million range.

Kirill Kaprizov

At the earliest, Kaprizov's next contract won't likely be announced until he is back in Minnesota sometime this month.  He hasn't stated much about his intention to re-sign with the Wild, but he sounded positive when asked about it at the end of the season. It's possible that Kaprizov will receive a contract with an AAV as high as $15 million, but he may opt for a shorter-term deal if he is unsure of the direction of the Wild.

LESS CERTAIN

Artemi Panarin

At age 33, Panarin is older than the names listed above, so his situation probably carries less certainty. As of early July, Rangers GM Chris Drury would not comment on whether he and Panarin have had extension talks. Panarin's seven-year contract signed in 2019 has turned out as well as any free agent contract could, considering the number of regrettable financial decisions teams make on July 1. That doesn't mean the Rangers will sign him a second time, although filling the shoes of their 2024-25 leading scorer would be a monumental task.

Martin Necas

Belief among the various hockey insiders is that Necas may opt for free agency in 2026. Necas signed a two-year bridge deal last summer, likely betting on himself that he could cash in big in free agency. He certainly made good on that bet last season, registering a career-high 84 points. Colorado seems like an ideal situation anyway, especially considering he has been a frequent linemate of Nathan MacKinnon while there. Yet if he was not happy in either Carolina or Colorado, perhaps he already has a destination in mind.

Alex Ovechkin

Emails about Ovechkin's 2026 retirement from the NHL might have been premature. But sometimes where there's smoke, there's fire. I can't see Ovechkin playing for any NHL team other than Washington, so the two options on the table seem to be re-signing with the Capitals and retirement. Since Ovechkin has already broken the goal record, it would be easy for the 39-year-old to ride off into the sunset. Yet with 897 goals, maybe he wants to leave the NHL as its first 1000-goal scorer. Or try to lead the Capitals to another Stanley Cup. Any decisions to acquire Ovechkin in a keeper league should be made understanding the possibility that he does not play past this season.

Anze Kopitar

Kopitar is in a similar situation to Ovechkin, although he is slightly younger (turning 38 in late August). It seems to be either Kings or retirement for Kopitar, who has played for only one team for his entire career. In a mid-July interview, new Kings GM Ken Holland didn't sound optimistic about signing Kopitar this summer, saying Kopitar would take it a year at a time with the younger Adrian Kempe being more of a priority. Kopitar is on the second year of a two-year contract, so it sounds very much like he will only sign a one- or two-year deal if he extends his career after the coming season.

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