Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Eastern Edge! I'm Eli Feldman.

With draft season underway, it's time to discuss an important part of the game we love: regression. At the risk of sounding like your old math teacher, regression essentially means that if something unusual happens once, it's likely to be closer to normal the next time. Regression is a useful analytical tool in various contexts, including estimating stock prices, forecasting sales, and – you guessed it – fantasy hockey projections.

Indeed, identifying who's likely to bounce back and who may slow down is critical to fantasy hockey success. So, without further ado, let's look at a few players primed for positive regression and a few who could see a dip in 2025-2026.

(Statistics courtesy of Frozen Tools)

Positive Regression Candidates

Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Florida Panthers

Carter Verhaeghe's point total dipped by nearly 20 in 2024-2025, but a few underlying numbers suggest he could bounce back in a big way. His shooting percentage last year (8.3%) sat well below his career average (13.4%), and his points/60 (2.2) was also lower than expected. With consistent power-play usage and five-on-five opportunities, a small bump in shooting luck could easily push Verhaeghe back toward the 30+ goal mark this season.

Matias Maccelli, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs

While Matias Maccelli showed flashes of elite playmaking during his first two full NHL seasons, his 2024-2025 campaign was nothing short of dreadful, totalling 18 points (8 goals, 10 assists) in 55 games. Although Maccelli isn't known for his goal scoring prowess, both his 9.4 shooting percentage and 973 PDO (a metric representing luck) were below expected. With an opportunity to play alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies this season, a modest increase in finishing – either from his own stick or his line mates – could help Matias Maccelli get back on track in 2025-2026.  

Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston Bruins

Jeremy Swayman struggled immensely last season, finishing the year with a 22-29-7 record, a .892 save percentage, and -4.21 five-on-five goals saved above expected. Swayman's sub-.900 SV% was .018 lower than his career average and well below the .917 mark he carried into last year. Despite these ugly numbers, it's important to remember that Swayman missed all of training camp last season while negotiating a new contract. Given that Sway never finished below a .914 SV% before 2024–25, it's reasonable to view the past season as an outlier rather than a new baseline. With the benefit of a full training camp, Swayman is a strong candidate to rebound and post numbers closer to his established career levels this season.

Negative Regression Candidates

Alex Ovechkin, LW/RW, Washington Capitals

Alex Ovechkin's remarkable run to pass Wayne Gretzky's career goals record was the ultimate storyline of the 2024-2025 season, but the circumstances that fueled the Great Chase are likely not replicable. With the record in sight, the entire Capitals roster played well above expectations last season, with several players (including Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dylan Strome, Aliaksei Protas, and Tom Wilson) far exceeding their projected outputs. Although Ovi continues to defy logic with every game he plays, with absolutely nothing left to prove, it's difficult to envision the Great 8 matching last year's scoring pace.

Morgan Geekie, C/LW/RW, Boston Bruins

Morgan Geekie erupted for 57 points (33 goals, 24 assists) in 2024-25, a huge leap from his previous career bests. Much of Geekie's production came while skating alongside David Pastrnak after the Bruins were already out of playoff contention, and his 22% shooting percentage and 12.94% 5-on-5 shooting percentage were well above his career norms. Geekie's numbers could conceivably remain elevated so long as he's riding shotgun alongside Pastrňák, but a regression to the mean is likely in order if he's tasked with driving his own line this season.

Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils

Nico Hischier scored a career-high 35 goals in 2024-2025, driven by a spike in shooting percentage (18.7%) and power-play production. While New Jersey's captain is an excellent two-way centre, maintaining those elevated rates will be challenging, particularly if the Devils' power play regresses from last year's 28.24% efficiency (third overall). Expect another solid season, but returning to the 35+ goal club is an ambitious target for Nico.

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That's all for this week! Follow me on X @SmoothE27 for more fantasy hockey content and analysis, and feel free to DM me with any questions about your team.

Stay tuned for the next edition of Eastern Edge on Tuesday, September 30. Have a great week everyone!