Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Martin)

This year I’m in a bind because I have too many good players to keep. It’s a nine team, points only league with goalies getting two points for a win, one for an OT loss, and two extra for a shutout. We have weekly lineups of 12F,4D,1G. We can keep nine "regular" players and up to 12 "rookies" which are defined as having played <200 career NHL games if a skater or <121 career games if a goalie.

My decided "regular" keepers so far are Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl, Kyle Connor, Brandon Hagel, Dylan Strome, Sebastian Aho, Rasmus Dahlin and Shea Theodore. I traded both Mikhail Sergachev and Miro Heiskanen for two rookies, leaving me with these options for my last non-rookie keeper: Matt Boldy, Brady Tkachuk, Cole Caufield, Roman Josi, Devon Toews, and Jakub Chychrun. I could also keep Ilya Sorokin, but I intend to go "zero G." My rookie keepers are Lane Hutson, Jackson LaCombe, Jordan Spence, Kayden Guhle, Henry Thrun, Adam Jiricek, Yaroslav Askarov, Joel Hofer, Connor Ingram, Jakob Pelletier, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Pavel Dorofeyev.

I’m leaning towards one of the forwards for my last regular keeper, given that I already have Hutson as a rookie D; but I just can’t decide between them. I feel that Caufield has the highest ceiling of all three considering it’s points only but I fear that ultimately Boldy and/or Tkachuk could do better. Of course it’s possible to consider that Hagel and Strome’s performances last season were bloated and that Boldy and Tkachuk are actually better than them, but I’m really hesitant not to keep them. What do you recommend?

I'm not sure which rookie(s) you received in return for Heiskanen and Sergachev, but I'm pretty sure one wasn't Hutson. I understand you essentially felt you had to trade at least one of the two d-men, since otherwise you'd have had five keeper D for four starting spots. I can get behind that, but I'd have not traded Sergachev, and instead dealt Hagel or Strome. Here's why.

Hagel had seven SHPs, after a prior high of only three, plus had 72 even strength points. How, when he skated mainly only 25% of his even strength shifts with Kucherov and scored 18 even strength points, or just about 25% of his 72 even strength points, with Kucherov in the ice? Probably because his SH% at 5×5 was 11.0%, easily a career high, yet that does not jibe with Hagel's 42.5% OZ%. For perspective, of the 73 forwards with a lower OZ% who played 60+ games, the highest scoring rate of any was linemate Anthony Cirelli at 60, and just two others scored at a point per every other game rate.

As for Strome, his 19.6% personal SH% certainly stands out, as when entering 2024-25 his career mark stood only at 14.6%, meaning he lucked into eight more goals than he ought to have scored. Also, his OZ% was 77.6%, after never having been even 65% in any prior season. Yes, that was due to him being tethered to Alex Ovechkin; however, even Ovi's mark of 80.0% was above his usual rate of 73% to 75%, and likely was due to his chase for the all-time goal scoring record. Although Strome's overall IPP was comparable to 2023-24, his IPP on the PP was 82.9%, after never once being even 69%. Simply put, Strome is not what we saw in 2024-25.

At least one of those two would have made for a better sell than one of your D; and if I you had to do it all over again, I'd have kept Sergachev. Yes, Heiskanen has a 73-point season to his credit; but he has been on a downward slide ever since, and Thomas Harley looms. Meanwhile, Sergachev is "the guy" for what should be a further improved Mammoth team. But you can't undo what's been done, so let's focus on the here and now.

Do Strome and Hagel merit keeping over your other options though? I'd honestly say that I'd rather have the three of Caufield, Boldy, and Tkachuk over both of those two. All Caufield has done is see his scoring rate climb every season he's played, and he still has room for gains in the normal course with respect to both ice time and PP scoring. Boldy was on his way to a breakout, until he lost his center in Joel-Eriksson Ek and Minnesota's PP catalyst in Kirill Kaprizov. With things back to normal for 2025-26, Boldy should thrive. Tkachuk is of course not at his best in points only; however, both his personal and team SH% numbers were abnormally low, and he is going to be in the top six and on PP1. As for the D options, I think Josi has begun a slide from which players at his age rarely bounce back, while Toews is no longer seeing spillover scoring benefit from being stapled to Cale Makar as ES, and Chychrun likely won't run PP1 and has never been a scorer.

Since you unfortunately can't undo the Sergachev trade, I'm keeping Caufield, Boldy and Tkachuk over Hagel and Strome. The other option is to try to trade one or both of Hagel and Strome to get an even better forward. If you can do that, then you'd need to decide which forward of Caufield, Boldy, and Tkachuk not to keep, and for me it's Tkachuk. His TOI ticked down and there is less certainty now that he will rise to the level of his big brother.

Question #2 (from Donald)

I'm in 10 team banger league with categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO and where 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UTIL, 2G start, plus there are 4 bench spots. We can keep only two players. Who, in addition to my "lock" keep of Leon Draisaitl, would you keep among these players: Sidney Crosby (C), Mark Scheifele (C), Dylan Cozens (C), Sean Monahan (C), Alex Ovechkin (LW/RW), Cole Caufield (LW/RW), Quinton Byfield (LW/RW), Matthew Olivier (RW), Zach Werenski (D), Evan Bouchard (D), Rasmus Dahlin (D), and MacKenzie Weegar (D)?

Looking at the list, I think there are only four in contention: Ovi, Werenski, Dahlin, and Weegar. Why Ovi, given how old he is and this perhaps being his last season in the NHL? Because in a keep-two you want to keep the best you have, and not focus on the future, since with 20 players being kept each season among all teams there will be ample opportunity to grab an upside player in the draft.

Let's start with Weegar. I realize everyone has awakened to him; however, despite the fact he was given the PP1 reins, his scoring rate declined. Also, Zayne Parekh looms, as does Rasmus Andersson, who the Flames seem to try on PP1 every season and has added motivation as a UFA next summer. Make no mistake – Weegar is very solid in this league. But when Rasmus Dahlin is an option, the fact of the matter is Weegar is not an option. Yes, Dahlin's once amazing HIT and BLK numbers plummeted last season; however, his scoring rose back to prior heights, and far and away above that of Weegar. I know that in Weegar you can lock in tons of hits and blocks while still getting solid scoring, and this league only starts 11 skaters, making it not very viable to do what is possible in leagues where many more start, which is to cobble together hits and blocks in the aggregate. But with four defensemen spots, I do feel that one can be reserved for streaming in banger guys, making Weegar not the right keep.

But is Dahlin the right keep? Werenski was a point per game player, and that was despite hitting an astonishing 23 posts and crossbars, the same number as some guy named Cale Makar, and a team 5×5 SH% of only 9.3% after it being 10.6% or higher in his prior two seasons. His OZ% and secondary assist rates also both check out. In short, this was no fluke season; and given those posts and crossbars, it could've easily been a lot better. Whereas it is unclear who'll slot where with regard to Blue Jacket forwards, there is no question who the top dog is on D, and it's Werenski. Although Werenski rarely records a hit, he blocks quite a lot of shots, definitely enough to put him in Dahlin's new neighborhood of seemingly lower banger output. And Werenski shoots a ton. He is the real deal, and good enough to keep over Dahlin.

What about Ovi? His SOG and HIT are down, as is his TOI. But he's still out there virtually every second on the PP, and by down, I mean his SOG and HIT are merely great, versus formerly amazing. Ovi now has talent around him, including Dylan Strome, who I said above did overachieve, but still seems to have clicked with Ovi. There is also the very real chance this will be Ovi's last NHL season, so he will not want to go out with a whimper. Ovi also gives you flexibility with being LW and RW eligible.

This is tough, but I have to go with Werenski. What he did last season, and nothing suggesting it was a fluke, make him too great to toss back into the pool. Plus, having Werenski, and the points he will give you, should enable you, as I suggested, to use a defense spot to stream in banger guys, with Werenski's excess points compensating for the shortcomings of those guys in that area. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Abed)

I'm in a 12-team H2H where each team can indefinitely keep up to 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goalie. Starting line-ups are 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, plus there are 4 Bench spots as well as 4 IR slots. There is no salary cap. The categories are G, A, STP (PPP + SHP), SOG, HIT, BLK and Takeaways for skaters and W, GAA, SV% and SO for goalies. Trading cannot occur before keepers are locked in.

I was fortunate enough to win this past season. That has created a good news, bad news situation in that I have an excess of keepable players. This is particularly the case among my forwards. I know I will be keeping Brady Tkachuk, Jack Eichel and Matvei Michkov, plus all but one of Wyatt Johnston, Brandon Hagel, Dylan Guenther, Dylan Holloway and Adam Fantili. Fantasy Hockey Geek projects Fantili to perform the worst for the upcoming season. Since I would like to repeat, if possible, I think Fantili’s projections plus his position (C only) make him the forward to not keep; but I'm concerned in that he could be a superstar, more so than most if not all of the other five, but particularly Hagel and Holloway. As such, part of me believes it's better to keep Fantili, even if he performs slightly worse this season compared to the other options, because my team might still be strong enough to repeat. What would you do?

At the outset, let me say I'm not surprised you won, as your assessment of the situation is outstanding. I also agree 100% that Guenther and Johnston are not up for debate, as they are already doing amazing and stand a very good chance of getting even better. It is too bad trades are not allowed, since I believe that Eichel's perceived value right now is higher than his actual value, what with him coming off a 100-point scoring pace and the arrival of Mitch Marner. But Eichel 's 5×5 team SH% was by far a career high at 11.4%, having only once previously been over 10%. Also, 59.1% of his assists were secondary, which, even accounting for the fact he's a center, is quite high both in general and versus his past results. And I am not wild about his SOG rate dropping. But inasmuch as you cannot trade before keepers are locked in, you do have to keep him. Still, I think there is a universe where you trade him after keepers.

For now though, does Fantilli merit keeping over Hagel or Holloway? Starting with Holloway, it'd normally not be great that he was on PP2, and seemly without a path to PP1, except the Blues ice two units that are almost comparable in talent and TOI, making that less of an issue than it'd be on nearly any other team. But he also tends not to skate with Robert Thomas, who is emerging as the star on that team. In fact, Holloway's production being so good last season might have hurt him by allowing the Blues to put him on the second line to achieve an overall more balanced offense. But when a team is all about balance, that usually means not the best in terms of fantasy output, making me worried that Holloway won't be able to score much higher than 70-75 points if things don't change.

Hagel has already obliterated that scoring pace, but he did so despite a tiny OZ% which should not, in any universe, result in a player being able to score at a 90-point pace. Still, he seems "for real" enough to make it tough to let him go. I fully realize that in answering an earlier question I said not to keep Hagel; however, fantasy advice is not one size fits all. This team is stacked, and Hagel having done what he did in 2024-25, plus 2023-24, makes him the more correct choice versus Holloway.

But does Hagel merit keeping over Fantilli? Looking at Fantilli's output, it is tough to reconcile in that he didn't shoot much, had nearly no PPGs, and failed to reach even 60 points, yet had 32 goals. And in fact only one player dating back to 1990-91 had anywhere near similar outputs at that young an age, and it was Eric Daze, a once promising winger for the Hawks whose career was cut short by injuries. So that means we are without any reliable player comparables. But what I think is so key about Fantilli is that he got better and better as the season wore on, when very often players in their first full NHL season will hit a wall. Instead, Fantilli had 37 points in his last 44 games, this despite next to no PP time. Also, he had ten multipoint games, which, although it means he had many with zero points, also suggests he has explosive talent that is just waiting to come to the surface.

So in the end, I think you do keep Fantilli and Hagel, making Holloway the drop. There might be a bit of a trade off over the next season or maybe two by Holloway scoring – and hitting – as much as he does; but in time Fantilli should well eclipse Holloway's scoring and make it important you didn't let him go as a result of near term bias. And do consider dealing Eichel once trading is open again. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Nick)

I'm in a 12 team H2H league with weekly matchups and daily lineups with rosters of 3C, 4W, 4D, 2Util and 2G (with 4 weekly appearances minimum) and categories are G, A, +\-, PPG, PPA, SOG, GWG, Hits and SHP for skaters and W, SV%, GAA and shutouts for goalers. We can keep 11 keepers with no limit on how long a player can be kept. My options are: Jack Hughes, Brandon Hagel, Roope Hintz, Alex DeBrincat, Travis Konecny, Tomas Hertl, Tom Wilson, Luke Hughes, Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, Brock Faber, Zach Hyman, Logan Thompson, Thatcher Demko, Frederick Andersen

I'm also in a league that is identical except we keep 12 and BLK is counted instead of SHP. For this one, my options are: Jake Guentzel, Matt Boldy, Sebastian Aho, Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Matvei Michkov, JJ Peterka, Valeri Nichushkin, Pavel Buchnevich, Quinton Byfield, Luke Hughes, Faber, Logan Thompson, Pyotr Kochetkov, Stuart Skinner. I'm also pondering to trade Byfield for Victor Hedman or Jakub Chychrun. And I have a big trade offer on the table of Thompson, Boldy, and the second and 45th picks in the draft for Jack Eichel and either Alex Ovechkin or Rakell and the 6th and 67th picks. 

What are your thoughts for both leagues? I'm looking to win, after coming very close so often, but I also don't want to be blinded by that and ruin my team(s) in the process.

This is a lot, plus two separate questions in one. Thus, to keep things manageable for readers I'll give shorter answers than usual.

For the first league, I count 15 potential keeps, meaning you only need to make four cuts. Right from the start I'm keeping one goalie at most. Your choices are not great, and I don't envision teams keeping more than one, if even one. If you keep a goalie though, I'd have it be Thompson, as the best option given health and team. I'm also not keeping Faber. His rookie season was every possible dot connecting, and what we saw in 2024-25 is likely more indicative of his trajectory, which I see as him peaking at a point per every other game. Think Filip Hronek, Cam Fowler with Anaheim, or Devon Toews, at best. That is not a keep. The last one is tougher. If there was not a goals premium I'd say ditch Hyman, since not only is he coming off a subpar season, but he's entering 2025-26 hurt. But he still should be in the top six and on PP1, so he's a keep. I think the non-keep is Hintz. Hertl should benefit from the arrival of Mitch Marner, and DeBrincat is very consistent. Hintz was indeed a two-time point per gamer, but the ascension of Wyatt Johnston has hurt him, as his minutes keep shrinking. He will still be in the top six and likely PP1, but he seems like the odd man out, all things considered, making the cuts Faber, Demko, Andersen, and Hintz.

The second league has 16 players for 12 spots, so yet again there only need to be four cuts. That is if you don't make trades. On that subject, I'd be inclined to try and deal Byfield. He's treading water and as I've said many times, and as has been "proven" with past comparables, players as tall and heavy as Byfield tend to not only produce worse than projected, but often have careers cut short or otherwise negatively affected by injury. If you can turn him into Hedman, I would. Yes, Hedman is old, but he is the top dog on Tampa and could still be a top tier d-man for several more seasons. The other deal is one I'd decline since, as indicated above, I think Eichel is a sell high, whereas Boldy is undervalued. Stand pat there.

Who then are the cuts in this second league? Again, I'd ditch Faber for the same reasons. And although the goalie options are better, I still can't see you keeping more than one, and I'd again keep Thompson. Skinner just seems to not be connecting the dots, and might not have many suitors as a UFA after this season. Kochetkov took a large enough step back for Carolina to re-sign Frederik Andersen, and I think if he plays poorly again the Canes might try to use their cap space to trade for a guy like Ilya Sorokin to stabilize their net situation once and for all. So that leaves only one more cut to make, and to me it's Nichushkin. He used to be great when he played, and he would miss chunks of time whether due to injury or off ice issues. But his production has slipped, and the return of Gabriel Landeskog will not do him any favors. The other option is Buchnevich, but he's a two-time point per gamer who ended last season with 25 points in 24 games. I think he's righted his ship enough to hold him over Nichushkin, making the cuts Faber, Nich, Skinner and Kochetkov. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Ted)

Which 2026 UFAs to be do you see most likely to outperform expectations? I'm not interested top stars like McDavid, Kaprizov, Panarin, Eichel and top stars, but instead those I might be able to get cheaper now and reap the benefit of them doing much better than predicted due to them seeing dollar signs.

First off, 2026 is shaping up to be the best UFA class in many, many years, and by a wide margin. This of course assumes players – like the four you listed – don't re-up with their current in the interim. With that as a qualifier, and focusing on players who aren't as elite, those I see as likeliest to rise to the occasion and do better than predicted are Patrik Laine, Evander Kane, Alex Tuch, Andrei Kuzmenko, Cam Fowler, Mike Matheson, and Jacob Markstrom.

Laine has gone from one of the most impressive outputs in NHL history as a teen, to a player who last season did not even take the ice for 15 minutes a game. But he still was a PP focal point, and he actually had 32 points in 43 games before finishing with one point in his final nine contests. Montreal should be a vastly improved team, such that even if Laine is on the second line and PP1, he should be better than many are predicting, as he knows he needs to prove himself all over again.

For Kane, it's not only that the situation for him in Vancouver seems favorable, but also his track record of playing his best when on the cusp of being a UFA. Before inking his first UFA deal in 2018 he had his best scoring rate in six seasons. Then, after that contract was terminated, he signed a one year "prove it" deal with Edmonton, and proceeded to produce at a 74-point pace, after which is has been downhill since then. Money is on the line, so I'd bank on Kane upping his effort, and, with that, his scoring.

Tuch has an issue in that although he can point to an 88-point scoring pace season in 2022-23, that is looking more and more like an outlier. He realizes that Buffalo has many young wingers, so he will most likely not be re-signed, incenting him to do well with another team. I also think he will be dealt during the season, likely giving him a larger PP role and a chance to boost his stats.

Kuzmenko has the talent to thrive, but among the lowest effort levels of any current NHLer. He eases off the gas pedal for chunks of the season, but thrives as things are winding down, so as to leave a favorable impression. In 2023-24, it was 17 points in his last 11 games, while in 2024-25 it was 17 his last 15. He realizes though that if he coasts again, he will have a difficult time getting another NHL deal. So I think he will up his effort level more consistently, and, with that, his scoring output.

Fowler realizes that Philip Broberg is making a case for taking on a far larger role, perhaps including on PP1, plus Logan Mailloux also looms. For Fowler, who turns 34 later this year, the future is now, and this likely will be his last major contract. Whether it is to stay with St. Louis to mentor the youngsters for a few more seasons, or to go to another team, look for Fowler to parlay the 17 points in 18 games he had to end 2024-25 into a very productive 2025-26.

Like Tuch, I expect Matheson to be traded during the season, as the Habs now have even less need for him with the arrival of Noah Dobson. Although Matheson is 31, he had 58- and 62-point scoring paces when given major minutes and the keys to PP1, and while on some pretty bad Habs teams. Either grab but stash him, or pick him up with around 30-35 games left, as until he's traded he'll likely struggle.

Lastly there's Markstrom, who was not quite the same after returning from injury. But before getting hurt, he was looking superb. Although Markstrom is 35, he only has two season sof 60+ starts, so his legs are younger than his age. Whether it is to make a case to stay with the Devils, or to go to a new team, look for Markstrom to produce at the rate he did in the first half of 2024-25. Good question!

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All good things must come to an end, and this marks my last mailbag before the start of the regular season. By all means please keep sending me questions, but don't include keeper questions or things that need an answer before the season. You can send your questions to me (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.