Welcome to the very first edition of Puck Picks, a new weekly Thursday column where I'll be breaking down NHL betting from every angle (I know today is Friday, but in-season this will be a Thursday article). Each week you'll find game analysis, betting trends worth paying attention to, and my favorite plays of the day. I'll also be tracking results for accountability and mixing in educational pieces along the way, so this isn't just a list of picks — it's a resource for learning how to approach the board with a sharper eye.

Before we dive into picks in the coming weeks, I want to lay some groundwork. Betting on hockey can be intimidating, especially when you're staring at a long list of lines and numbers. The truth is you don't need to bet everything. In fact, betting less is usually smarter. Success comes from patience, discipline, and a willingness to find edges and only putting money down when those edges are apparent. That's the philosophy that will guide Puck Picks all season.

Bankroll

Let's start with bankroll management, because nothing matters if you don't have discipline. Before a single bet is placed, decide what you're comfortable losing over the course of the season. This is your bankroll—whether that's $50, $500, or $5,000. Once you have a bankroll, break it down into units, which is usually about 1% of your total. For example, a $200 bankroll would mean $2 per unit. Most of my wagers are for one unit, with a general cap of five units on any single game. This system allows your bankroll to survive losing streaks and keeps emotions out of the decision-making process. By sticking to units instead of "going big" when you feel confident, you keep yourself alive through the inevitable swings of an NHL season.

Lines and Odds

I'll be using American odds in these articles:

Negative numbers are the 'favourites' (e.g. -130): You need to bet that amount to win $100. (-130 = $130 bet to win $100 profit)

Positive numbers are the 'underdog' (+150): You'll profit that amount on a $100 bet. (+150 = $100 bet to win $150 profit)

Every line carries an implied probability. Positive odds always have a 50% or lower implied probability, while negative odds have over a 50% implied probability. For example:

• -110 = 52.4% implied chance of occurring
  
  
• -200 = 66.7% implied chance of occurring
  
  
• +150 = 40% implied chance of occurring

The goal is simple: only bet when you believe the true probability is higher than what the sportsbook implies. If the sportsbook is offering +150 odds on David Pastrnak to get a 4+ shots, you should be taking that bet if you believe there is truly higher than a 40% chance of this occurring. Now how do you know what the true probability is? Well, obviously no one knows, but I'll be diving into what I use to help me gain an edge in-season in this weekly column.

Futures and Picks

Season-long futures bets have your money tied up for eight months. For this reason alone, most people stay away from season long bets. After tracking my season-long bets for the past three seasons though, I am fine with this reality. Plus, it gives me plenty of storylines to cheer for aside from my fantasy players in-season!. If you are setting a budget, you should incorporate any season long bets into this budget or create a separate budget for these. I'm going to walk through some season-long bets and post a few of my favourite picks. I try to post picks that the lines have not changed much in, but I encourage you to not blindly follow these, especially if the odds you find are not the same odds that I have found. Sometimes I will find great value on a pick, and the line will change drastically – it would usually only be worth taking if you got a similar line to mine. I'll try to check and see if lines have changed since my bet, but no guarantees! For example, I was able to find great value on Macklin Celebrini, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Matvei Michkov to all get 50+ points (not parlayed), but the odds have since changed drastically and I won't be sharing those.

One thing you'll learn about me is that I love season-long unders compared to overs. There is always a likelihood of injury and missed games limiting the opportunities of a player to hit their over. I generally like to save my over bets for alternative lines with far better odds. For example, I'd rather take Jack Hughes to hit 90+ points at +250 rather than him to get over 80.5 at -115. If he gets injured again, he will likely not hit either. Though, if he plays a full season, he'll cruise past 90 points. Now to an under I am on and some other futures picks:

Mikko Rantanen Under 90.5 Points (-110) – 1.2 units

Mikko Rantanen leaves an elite setup in Colorado, where he thrived alongside Nathan MacKinnon with over 22 minutes of average time on ice (ATOI) per game, for a more balanced Dallas roster. His ATOI dropped a stark 3.5 minutes from Colorado to Dallas last season, and early training camp lines suggest the Stars will continue spreading minutes across their deep forward group, limiting Rantanen's ice time. This alone makes the 90.5-point threshold a tough climb. Rantanen also swaps Colorado's high-octane, shot-heavy attack for a Dallas squad that ranked bottom 10 in even-strength shot generation in the second half of 2024-25. While I expect slight improvement under a new coach, a full offensive turnaround seems unlikely. This isn't a bet against Rantanen's talent, but a bet toward a diminished role and a less dynamic team context. The under is value here.

Martin Necas 80+ points (+210) – 0.5 units, 90+ points (+700) – 0.2 units

Martin Necas is on the opposite end of the spectrum here, somewhat replacing Rantanen on a strong Colorado team. After a midseason trade from Carolina, he posted 28 points (15 on the power play) in just 30 games alongside Nathan MacKinnon last year, en route to a career-high 84 points overall. He had a whole 2.5-minute increase in ATOI going from Carolina to Colorado. Now, with a full offseason to gel, he may get even more ice time and gain better chemistry with Mackinnon, replacing Mikko Rantanen‘s vacated role in one of the NHL’s most potent offenses.

While books have set his standard over/under at a conservative 73.5 points, implying a 0.9 PPG pace, we’re bypassing that low-value line for the juicier alternative totals: +210 for 80+ (barely 1.00 PPG) and +700 for 90+ (just 1.10 PPG). These odds scream mispricing given the upgrade. There is always a risk of Necas not playing 82 games, but that is why we prefer the alternative totals with better odds. If he were to get injured, he likely wouldn't reach his O/U total of 75 points – If he plays the whole season, he has a great chance to clear these alternative total numbers.

Kirill Kaprizov Hart Trophy Finalist (+380) – 1 unit

Kaprizov only played half the season last year battling injuries. He had an 82-game pace of 112 points last season with Bill Guerin claiming he was playing at 60%. Before he went down to injury, he was a favourite to win the Hart Trophy. Kaprizov has the talent and skill to be one of the best players in the NHL, he just needs to stay healthy. He's battled a few injuries in the past due to some awkward collisions, but there is nothing to suggest he isn't at full health to start this year. If Kaprizov plays close to a full season, he is no doubt one of the "most valuable players to his team". He'll be the reason that Minnesota finds success this season. The odds for him to be just a finalist is too much value, baking in too much injury risk. Even if he misses a few games, he has a great shot at being in the top 3 of this award. I am also loving Kaprizov's alternative points lines of 100+ (+125) – 0.5 units, and 110+ (+550) – 0.5 units.

Morgan Geekie 50+ Points (+150) – 0.6 units

It looks like the books are not buying Morgan Geekie's breakout, where he went for 33 Goals and 57 points being elevated to the top line alongside David Pastrnak. After signing a hefty contract extension, he should continue to see the same role, if not an increased role on the power play. There is not much competition for these top minutes in Boston and Geekie should continue to have some success in his role. While his shooting percentage may regress, the only way I see him getting under 50 points is if he suffers a significant injury. +150 is great odds for this line.

Alex Nedeljkovic Under 12.5 Wins (-110) – 1.1 units

Nedeljkovic has had an impressive start to his preseason with the San Jose Sharks, but he is unlikely to secure a starting role on this team with talented prospect Yaroslav Askarov in the midst. Even if he were to start half of San Jose's games, San Jose is unlikely to improve much to secure a bunch of wins. San Jose won 25% of their games last season. Even If this improves to 33%, Nedeljkovic would need to start 40 games to finish with 13 wins. An Askarov injury is likely the only way this happens. Too much would need to go right, and the value is pointing to the under.

Next week we'll dive into Part 2 of this Introduction to Puck Picks, looking at some in-season NHL betting props, some key strategies I use to gain an edge, and I'll share more futures picks. Betting on hockey can be a lot of fun and enhance the viewing experience, but just like fantasy, it can definitely be frustrating when things don't go your way. If betting on hockey isn't adding anything positive to your NHL experience you shouldn't be doing it. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you are willing to lose. DobberHockey does not accept responsibility for any losses incurred.

For full transparency – last season I returned 29.7% (129.7 units returned on 100 units wagered) on my futures picks with a 44.6% win rate. My biggest hit was Lukas Dostal 1300+ saves, while my biggest miss was Connor McDavid Over 127.5 points. You can follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more futures, in-season picks and analysis.