21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2025-11-09

Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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1. This past Wednesday, 20 years ago, I decided that my little webpage I was doing on the side needed to be a little more professional. For several months, ever since before the lockout ended in 2005, I had been posting monthly fantasy rankings – the Top 300 – on this webpage because The Hockey News had to let their webmaster go (thanks to said lockout). My page was getting pretty good traffic, and I added my thoughts on it. I called them “Ramblings”. Those thoughts are what you’re still reading today. And those rankings are the same ones I posted just this past Monday. Every month for the Rankings. Every day for the Ramblings. I even post on Christmas. On Christmas of 2008 I posted that I had become a father right here in the Ramblings. Yes, my first daughter was born on Christmas day.

But 20 years ago, on November 5, I decided to make things more legitimate so I went to godaddy to register fantasyhockey. Well that, of course, was taken. And not only that, but Ian Gooding managed it! So I decided to use Dobber. Oddly enough – taken! To this day, that’s still a dead page and they want like $100,000 for it. Alright, I’ll go with DobberHockey.

And so, a brand was launched. (nov5)

2. Rasmus Dahlin is taking a leave of absence from the Sabres to be with his fiancée in Sweden after she underwent a heart transplant. Although she is reportedly doing well following the surgery, she experienced sudden heart failure during a summer vacation and needed life-saving CPR. Hoping for the best for both and that he takes all the time that he needs.

Not to downplay the importance of human life, but one implication for fantasy teams is that either Owen Power or Bowen Byram should take over the top power play for the Sabres. Both are under 20 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues and are worth a speculative add at this point. I roster Dahlin in one league and just added Byram, so naturally Power will get PP1. Or neither of them will get it because the Sabres will jump on the trend of using five forwards. You know how that works. (nov8)

3. Thatcher Demko was reportedly questionable for this weekend’s games (Saturday) and (Sunday), although the Canucks are calling the injury “preventative maintenance.” Adding to the worry about Demko is the fact that the Canucks recalled Jiri Patera from the AHL under what they listed as “emergency conditions.” That term might allow a callup outside of salary cap parameters, and Demko may well be dealing with something minor, but his injury history from the previous two seasons makes this seem more concerning than this scenario would be for the typical player. (Update: Demko didn’t dress on Saturday against Columbus.)

For now, keep Demko on your bench or IR+. We’ll have to wait to find out which of the two contradictory terms makes more sense when describing Demko’s situation. (nov8)

4. Artemi Panarin‘s slow start and six-game point drought had some thinking that the 34-year-old forward is about to regress in a major way. However, Panarin cooled off that talk with a goal and two assists in the Rangers’ 4-1 win over Detroit Friday. Panarin is in a contract year and hoping to cash in on the free agent market, so his motivation should be high. A look at his advanced stats shows some bad luck (7.1 SH%, 6.4 5on5 SH%, 1.9 PTS/60), so he should be able to rebound. The Rangers as a team had the lowest goals-per-game average of any team entering Friday’s action (just over 2 GF/GP), which has certainly impacted Panarin. This might even be a good time to buy low on Rangers such as Panarin and J.T. Miller. (nov8)

5. Mats Zuccarello made his season debut on Friday, recording an assist on this fabulous sequence with longtime linemate Kirill Kaprizov… Zuccarello was back on Kaprizov’s line as well as the top power play, so he’s worth adding (13% Yahoo/43% Fantrax) if he happens to be available in your league.

Zuccarello’s return also results in a downgrade for Vladimir Tarasenko, who had been on Minnesota’s top power play and on a top-6 line up until Friday. Tarasenko already has seven power-play points in just 15 games when he had totaled eight and nine in the previous two full seasons. Tarasenko seems to have a bit of fantasy value left in the tank, although it seems to be heavily role-dependent.

Marcus Johansson has been suddenly surging. With an assist on Friday, Johansson now has an eight-game point streak with 10 points over that span. Overall, Johansson has 14 points in 16 games, providing full value on a one-year contract at the bargain basement cap hit of $800,000. (nov8)

6. Entering Saturday action, the NHL’s two leading scorers were a 19-year-old and a 20-year-old who were first overall picks in consecutive seasons and are both from the North Shore in greater Vancouver. If you guessed Macklin Celebrini (23 points) and Connor Bedard (22 points), you are correct… or at least you were paying attention to the games Friday.

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Given their ages, first-overall pedigree status, and common birthplace, Celebrini and Bedard could be compared to one another the same way that Crosby and Ovechkin have for the past two decades. Both also appear to be in the discussion to represent Canada at the Olympics, although Celebrini may have the upper hand given his faster development at the NHL level. I’m not about to proclaim which player will have a better career, but you can draw your own conclusions using the Compare Players feature at Frozen Tools. (nov8)

7. In just his second NHL season, the under-20 Celebrini has been making easy work of NHL competition. In adding another goal and an assist in a 2-1 win over Winnipeg on Friday, Celebrini has piled up 17 points in his last 10 games. Celebrini also fired six shots on Friday, but it’s worth mentioning that his shot per game average is actually down from last season, from 3.4 SOG/GP last season to 3.1 SOG/GP this season. His advanced stats, which include a 16.6 5on5 SH%, point to some kind of regression from his current 1.5 PTS/GP pace. But there’s almost no way you should be trading him in a keeper league, while the ask would be a superstar in a non-keeper format.  

Meanwhile, after torching the Canucks for five third-period goals on Wednesday, Bedard’s Blackhawks took care of the Flames in a 4-0 win on Friday. Bedard scored a goal while adding three assists, giving him 15 points over his last seven games. On top of that, Bedard has at least four shots in each of his last four games. All of this is to say that Bedard could be making the jump to full-fledged superstar this season. Bedard’s advanced stats don’t point to quite as much regression as Celebrini’s, but it won’t be easy for him to keep up his current pace either. Still, the framework for any Bedard trade should be similar to that of Celebrini. (nov8)

8. The Blackhawks are a fun team to watch, but their inexperience on defense (five regular under-25 defensemen) results in gaping holes that their opponents can exploit. Fortunately, Spencer Knight is demonstrating why the Panthers invested a first-round pick on him back in 2019. Knight was a risky goalie entering the season, but entering Saturday he led the league with 12.41 goals saved above expected and was tied for second with eight quality starts. From what I’ve seen from the Hawks, I don’t think these kinds of stats are sustainable, but Knight could be good enough to steal some wins this season. (nov8)

9. With the NHL committing to participating in the upcoming Winter Olympics, this season’s schedule is more condensed than we have seen in previous seasons. One effect of this is more back-to-back games, with 10 teams playing back-to-back games on Saturday and Sunday. Another effect of the condensed NHL schedule is more injuries. Teams have fewer built-in rest days, which leads to increased likelihood of wear-and-tear-type injuries.

With that and reader demand for more updates, you may have noticed that Injury Ward now appears twice a week. On Wednesdays and now Sundays, Logan Clarkson will keep you in the loop on the most recent injury news for the most fantasy-relevant players, as well as how a player’s injury could affect other players on the team. (nov8)

10. Terry climbed above being 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues late in the week, so you may have missed your opportunity to roster him. That’s a massive jump for him considering he was drafted in just 3% of Yahoo leagues. Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, and Mason McTavish have experienced similar spikes in leagues rostered, which is as a result of the Ducks’ sudden scoring prowess (league-leading 4.23 GF/GP entering Saturday). Terry has been in on that surge, picking up 15 points over his last 10 games.

If Terry happens to be rostered and you’re looking for another Anaheim player, consider Chris Kreider, who has nine goals in 10 games, including goals in four of five games. Rookie Beckett Sennecke is another option, as he has four points in his last five games and has been on a line with Gauthier and McTavish. (nov8)

11. In one of my leagues (12 teams), I have a one-round entry draft where players drafted that summer can be added. I traded my pick away, so the first thing I did once the waiver wire opened was add Ben Kindel because he made the Penguins’ roster straight out of his draft year. Kindel continues to improve, playing on a scoring line with Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust while also assuming top power-play duties. Kindel may get bumped from PP1 once Rickard Rakell returns, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he sticks there anyway considering how the Pens are often dealing with injuries. On Friday, Kindel was only 3 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues.

On a side note, the Penguins seemed to be a consensus draft lottery finalist entering the season. I don’t know if I announced this or simply kept this in my own thoughts, but I had a hard time thinking that a team with Sidney Crosby and other established veterans would be that terrible. I’m not saying they’ll be a playoff team, and I certainly wouldn’t trade for anyone on that team that’s off to a better-than-expected start (go to my X profile to see a crazy bad offer I received involving sell-highs Evgeni Malkin and Justin Brazeau). But maybe they’ll end up a little more competitive than you thought. (nov8)

12. The Pittsburgh Penguins announced that forward Justin Brazeau and goaltender Tristan Jarry will be out for four weeks and three weeks, respectively, with upper- and lower-body injuries, respectively. Both are a big part of the great start that the Penguins have had and are a loss for the team. My suspicion is there will be a lot of different forwards skating on the second line so it’s not as easy as saying, “Grab Philip Tomasino” or whomever off the waiver wire. It is clear that the net belongs to Arturs Silovs now, though. Sergei Murashov was the recall to back him up. (nov6)

13. Trevor Zegras is back! Fingers crossed for his health, which can take a player down at the worst possible time. But if he can play the full season, he’ll silence all doubters if he hasn’t already. The Flyers bought low, and any dynasty league owners who acquired him in the summer or last year – they bought low too. (nov5)

14. It must be wonderful being a Montreal fan. The Calder Trophy last year, and unless Matthew Schaeffer takes him down, Ivan Demidov will take it this year. And that Demidov vs. Schaeffer battle will be incredible – I’m sure we’ll change our mind 50 times as to which kid will win it. Either way, the Habs already had a future core kind of in place, and it’s like Hutson and Demidov take that to the next level. What a great job by management and scouting. Demidov was supposed to go second in 2024 and he went fifth? That was some nice luck. And how did Hutson get passed on 61 times before the Habs took him at 62? The latter is obviously size bias, and the former is the Russia bias. To Montreal’s gain.

Demidov is a difference maker. At this point, he could have me on one wing and the hot dog vendor on the other wing and he’d get his points while giving us a few points in the process. But the reality is, he has (another rookie) Oliver Kapanen and Alex Newhook on his line – and he’s making them better. Newhook has 11 points in 14 games, which so far is his career-best scoring rate. Kapanen was also blanked, but he’s looking like 40 points might happen, which is a fine freshman year. (nov5)

15. Is Jack Roslovic the best waiver wire pickup of the season? Can we declare that in November? It’s sure looking good, now that he is finding crazy chemistry with Leon Draisaitl at even strength and getting first unit PP time. I suspect Zach Hyman will mess with the latter part, which will really take Roslovic down a notch. But if he racks up enough points before that, the coach will be very reluctant to remove him from a deployment that’s working. My instinct here is to buy, not sell. His line alongside Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin is really clicking. Podkolzin’s starting to pick it up and I wonder if his first 40-point season is in the cards. (nov5)

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16. Cutter Gauthier now has 11 goals on the season. His shot volume and his chemistry with Beckett Senecke is making him a 35-goal candidate – and there is some debate as to whether he can be a 40-goal guy. I need to see more before I go that far. Talk to me again at Christmas. But his shot volume is way up and he has a promising setup man feeding him again and again. The points against it: his S% is a little high even for him, his 5on5 S% is a little high, and finally and not to be underrated – Sennecke is a rookie who will slow down as the league tightens up. (nov5)

17. ICYMI – our TikTok and YouTube channels have been super-busy, with loads of prospect content, fantasy advice and DFS hits. Look for the Dobber Sports brand there and subscribe!

18. In my Ramblings on Tuesday morning (see #20 & #21 below), I wrote about three players off to hot starts and whether to hold or trade them. Today, let’s go in the other direction and look at three players off to cold starts and what fantasy managers should do with them.

Data is from Evolving Hockey and is current as of the morning of November 5th, 2025.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning)

With just three wins in nine starts, and a .900 save percentage, there may be some consternation around Andrei Vasilevskiy. While it’s understandable, there needs to be patience.

To start with, there are 31 goalies with at least 400 minutes played so far this season. Of those 31 goalies, Vasilevskiy has the third-furthest shot distance faced at 37.3 feet (again from Natural Stat Trick). Last year, five regular goalies had an average shot distance faced of 37 feet or further, none had a save percentage under .900 and they averaged a .909 save percentage with a 2.41 goals against average. Not elite, but very good, nonetheless.

The second aspect of this is Vasilevskiy’s goal support. He allowed nine goals in his first two games, losing both outings. In the seven games since, he’s allowed just 15 goals but has gotten just 17 goals of support in return. That is a rate of 2.43 goals-for per game which would rank near the bottom of the league between Nashville and the New York Rangers. As a team, the Lightning sit with 2.85 goals per game, which isn’t great, but a lot better than the recent stretch.

Finally, Vasilevskiy has 4.98 Goals Saved Above Expected in his nine games. In a full season, that would be the best rate of his career on a per-minute basis. He has been playing as well as ever, but the Lightning started slow before picking things up in the last couple of weeks, and their goal scoring has increased with it.

What to do: This is another clear hold-or-buy. Tampa Bay has found their groove and once they finish their current road trip, they have the sixth-easiest schedule from this weekend until the Christmas break by opponent points percentage (per the Frozen Tools scheduler). Anyone who survived the first month with Vasilevskiy as their top goalie is likely to be rewarded for their patience. (nov6)

19. Quinn Hughes (Vancouver Canucks)

Hughes has missed a few games, but he still has just seven points in 10 appearances, or 0.7 points per game, his worst mark of his career outside his 5-game debut in 2018-19. The Canucks sit 25th in goals per game, so it’s not as if he’s just had a run of bad luck on a high-scoring team. In fact, his points per 60 minutes (1.57) is the lowest of his career, including that 5-game debut in 2018-19.

There are a lot of good signs here, though.

The first positive sign is he’s skating 26:46 per game, by far a career-high, exceeding his previous mark by over a full minute. It isn’t as if ice time was ever a concern with him, but he leads the league in TOI per game.

The second is that despite Vancouver’s scoring struggles, they are creating well with him on the ice: the Canucks are averaging a whopping 71 shot attempts and 5.3 expected goals per 60 minutes when Hughes is on the ice. That rate of shot attempts would be the second-highest of his career (75 per 60 minutes in 2023-24) and that rate of expected goals would be far-and-away the highest of his career.

The third is that his individual shot attempt rate is 16.14 every 60 minutes. Over the previous two seasons when he had shown a penchant for shooting, that rate was 16.44. It is basically in line with the elevated rate of recent seasons and is balanced out completely by the increase in ice time.

Lastly, the team is scoring 3.95 goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice. Last year, when he had 76 points in 68 games, Vancouver managed 4.22 goals per 60 minutes. At his elevated rate of ice time, we are looking at being on the ice for seven fewer goals in a full 82-game season, and that’s if the team doesn’t start converting at a higher rate than it is now.

It all comes down to Hughes registering a point on just 41.2% of Vancouver’s goals so far. He has never been below 53.5% in a season and averaged 57.3% across the prior three seasons (per Natural Stat Trick). If he were at that 57.3% goal participation rate this year, he’d be a point-per-game defenceman.

What to do: This is a clear hold, or even a buy for those without Hughes on their rosters. He won’t get worse than he is now and there is a good argument that without some bad luck, he has 10 points in 10 appearances already. There is upside beyond that, so hold or buy. (nov6)

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20. Whenever we see a player is off to a hot start, the question is always whether it’s ‘for real’ or whether it’s some sort of mirage. Figuring out that answer is important for fantasy managers when considering keeping a player who could be a league-winning option over the five months, or whether they should be traded when their value is at their theoretical highest. Here are three players off to hot starts and what we should do with them.

Data is from Natural Stat Trick and current as of the morning of November 3rd.

Leo Carlsson (Anaheim Ducks)

It isn’t that Carlsson taking a step forward is unexpected, and the Anaheim Ducks were a team I was personally high on in fantasy drafts this season because of that anticipated step forward combined with low draft cost. Carlsson is at the top of that list with 16 points in 11 games, ranking sixth in the league by points per game at 1.45. It has been a great first month of the season.

There is a red flag here for Carlsson: the team is shooting over 15% with him on the ice. To put that into context, there were 982 instances of a forward skating at least 1000 minutes in a season in any of the four seasons from 2021-2025. Of those 982 forwards, just 11 of them finished 15% or higher by team shooting percentage with them on the ice. Even at just 13% shooting, Carlsson would lose 2-3 points.

It isn’t to say that Carlsson can’t stay with an elevated percentage, and even if he falls to 11%, which is a bit above the prior four-year league average, with the rate that the Ducks are generating shots with him on the ice, he’s still a point-per-game player.

What to do: At this point, I probably just hold Carlsson. As mentioned, even a sizeable shooting percentage downturn would have him around a point-per-game option. And if that shooting percentage downturn isn’t as steep as it could be, he’s even better than that. Considering the modest draft-day cost, and barring a lopsided traded return, I would hold him until at least American Thanksgiving and then re-evaluate. (nov4)

21. Matthew Schaefer (New York Islanders)

Even the most optimistic Schaefer boosters could not have foreseen what he’s done: 30 more minutes of ice time than the next-closest Islanders defenceman, second in the league for shots by a defenceman with 36, and 1 of 10 defencemen in the league with double-digit points. It is hard to be much better than that as a true 18-year-old rookie (and he just turned 18 years old in September).

The good news is there aren’t many red flags for Schaefer. He’s registering a point on 52.6% of Islanders goals scored with him on the ice, which is high but not even among the top-30 defencemen with at least 100 minutes played this season. The Islanders are also shooting 12.3% with him on the ice, which again is high but not even among the top-50 defencemen this season. Individually, he’s shooting 13.9%, and that will come down, but whatever he loses in goals he could easily make up in assists, so I don’t think he’s a 30-goal defenceman, but he can certainly finish with 15-20 goals on the year.

What to do: This has to be a hold. I always worry about rookies running out of steam in the second half of the season, but the good news is that there’s an extended break in February for the Olympics. That will give Schaefer four weeks to rest and be ready for the stretch run in March and April. I don’t think he’s a 70-point defenceman, but everything is lining up for him to be a 50-point option, and that’s worth holding onto. (nov4)

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Have a good week, folks!

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