Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

In the interest of full disclosure, all but two of these questions were not sent to me. I do hope that as the season unfolds more of you will send me questions. For now though, via the questions which were not submitted I'll try to touch on things I feel are of most interest. If you want to send me questions, there are instructions on how to do so at the end of the column.

Question #1 (From the DobberHockey Forums)

In a 10 team, keep 6, H2H – 1 win league, with categories of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, Sv%, SHO and a minimum of four goalie appearances per week, and rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA, a team has these players on their roster:

C: Sam Bennett, Sean Couturier, Shane Pinto
LW: Leon Draisaitl LW/C, Tim Stutzle LW/C, Kirill Kaprizov, Brandon Hagel LW/RW
RW: Jason Robertson RW/LW, Clayton Keller RW/LW, Lucas Raymond
D: Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin,, Charlie McAvoy, Nikita Zadorov, Alexander Romanov
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Cam Talbot, Jake Allen, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Should they trade Vasy and McAvoy for Karel Vejmelka and Evan Bouchard?

My short answer is no. It is true that Vasy is not ideally suited for a league like this, in which two of the total of four goalie categories aren't volume-based, with a minimum of only four goalie appearances per week, plus one of the volume based categories is Shutouts, which are unpredictable, although for what it's worth Vasy is tied for fifth since 2020-21 in shutouts, and second in wins, the other category. Not only is it too early to wave the white flag on Vasy, but the trade, in principle, is not reasonable.

As to the last point, some trades might appear to be even on paper; however, they're ones you still do not make for several reasons. First, it's quite possible that you can do better, and you should ensure you find out first if you can. In this instance, I have to think if the eight other teams knew that Vasy was obtainable you'd get a better overall offer than this. Second, Vasy is what I like to refer to in fantasy as a "grin and bear it" player, meaning that the combination of his track record, age, and team make his upside so high that you "grin and bear it" through his slumps. Now don't get me wrong – I'm not saying that "grin and bear it" players should never be traded, or even in certain cases dropped; but I mean you should think long and hard before you do so.

Both of these factors point away from making this trade. Also, McAvoy is a risky own, as his track record of health is quite lousy, plus his scoring in recent seasons had lagged well below expectations. His hot start and good health thus far make him a good sell high candidate, especially if it allows you to get Bouchard whose floor is realistically McAvoy's ceiling and is likely as much of a buy low now as he'll ever be. Yes, Bouchard will get you at best about half the hits and blocks as McAvoy, but he also has double the shot volume. So in fairness, the idea of getting Bouchard for McAvoy is very alluring.

But it's not alluring enough to make it worth parting with Vasy to get Vejmelka. Utah has looked very good in the early going, and Vejmelka is piling up wins. But his peripherals are not great, with a SV% a well below .900 and a lousy GAA. And he is at 27.3% in really bad starts, as he has 22% or higher in all but one of his NHL campaigns. That is a bad thing for H2H, as it can wreck entire weeks. Although Vasy has disappointed early, as I write this he has a mere one really bad start and only once has he ever averaged more than 13.5% in his long and illustrious career.

In short, you can do better. By all means try to make a deal to trade McAvoy, as I think he's a ticking time bomb in terms of his health and scoring. The issue though is what other goalie would make it an even trade? The Connor Hellebuyck owner is not parting with him unless the deal is much sweeter, but most other goalies are too iffy. Perhaps a deal for Igor Shesterkin could be entertained though, as while his win total is not great, his peripherals are back to being rock solid. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Todd)

My 14 team league is turning into a H2H auction keeper next season. To change to the auction format, GMs can still keep 5 players, but now it will come at a cost of 50% of their standard 2026 auction value, and then to keep them each season thereafter the added cost would be $8 a year per keeper. Each team gets a budget of $260 and categories will remain G, A, Pts, PPPts, PIMs, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SO. There are 17 roster spots made up of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 3D, 2Util, 2 G, 4 bench.

I have been offered Cale Makar and Macklin Celebrini for Connor McDavid. My intended keepers for next year were to have been McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Ivan Demidov. If I do the deal, I'd likely not keep Matthew Tkachuk. Would you do the deal; and, if so, who would you not keep among those I listed?

In fantasy, a normal response when a McDavid owner is approached to trade him is to rightfully say no. But given that he's been less superhuman of late, there are more instances where McDavid owners can perhaps begin to realistically entertain trade offers. This is definitely one of those instances.

Celebrini is looking like a truly special talent. But before we anoint him truly elite, we need to stop and take notice of the big picture. His SOG rate is down a bit, and his SH% likely too high even if accounting for fewer SOG. Although his IPPs remain superb and he has a secondary assist rate under 40%, which is very low for a center, his 5×5 team SH% is 17.2%, which is stratospheric. Still, this is a player who has points on nearly 50% of the goals scored by his team. And all this while still a teenager. So for now, Celebrini might not really be the 120 point player he appears, but 100+ points seems well within reach, and with that not being remotely close to his ceiling.

As for Makar, what more needs to be said that hasn't? It has been decades since a defenseman had a 90 point floor, but that is what you get in Makar. And he even chips in with decent hits and blocks. It is true that several d-men in the league today have 90-point potential; however, between his own talent and his team, Makar stands above them as the inarguable top fantasy d-man, period.

As for McDavid, after scoring rates of 140+ in two straight seasons, he's inched downward to merely the 120 or so range. Still amazing, but not stratospheric. He's also shooting less, and his ice time is most certainly maxed out. Of course McDavid won't have a SH% in single digits when all is said and done this season like he has as of now; however; his secondary assist rate is a bit high, and his IPPs are on par with his best seasons. So maybe he rises to a 120-130 point scoring rate, but that might be his ceiling now.

When thinking of a trade like this, you have to consider, exactly as you have, that it is more like McDavid and one of your keepers for Celebrini and Makar. Yes, you get that keeper's stats for this season before you opt not to keep him; but you are correct that the actual "price" is more than just McDavid. But Matthew Tkachuk seems to now have a 90-point ceiling, whether due to injuries or just his rough and tumble style catching up to him. So the price is higher than it appears, but you have to give to get.

Since this is an auction league where players being kept will affect each team's budget, that is also a concern. But I'd say at this point McDavid's auction price likely will be less reflective of what he brings to the table than Makar's or Celebrini's. And that's because McDavid is seen as the best there is in the NHL, whether or not he still is or is not. Or to put it another way, McDavid's "name value" remains that of the 140-150 point player he was, not the player a notch or two below that he seemingly is now. Makar I'm sure will be no bargain either; but his "baked in" price likely matches his true value. 

If you remember my column from a few weeks ago about mistakes not to make, one of them was not capitalizing when a player's name value exceeds his actual value. McDavid might qualify given that what we're seeing suggests his downtick in scoring rate for 2024-25 might not have been a blip in the radar. And "value" is all the more important in auction leagues, since unlike in drafts "value" takes on all the more meaning given that it is actual "dollars."

Although when it's a close call I prefer to not make a trade, getting a truly unmatched defenseman like Makar, and a forward who looks to be on track to be a superstar very soon, while trading a player whose name value might now exceed his actual value, seems like a deal I'd make. I agree that you should count on now keeping Matthew Tkachuk. Good luck!

Question #3

After an awful 2024-25, Brock Faber is showing signs of a resurgence, and is at the same scoring rate as 2023-24. Is the real Brock Faber, or is he still more like the 2024-25 version and jut on a hot streak? 

When Faber was thriving in 2023-24, lots of poolies had visions of him being a "the guy" defenseman for the Wild, piling up points in the process given all the talent the team had among its forwards. But in reality, looks were somewhat deceiving.

As a rookie, Faber was playing 24:58 per game and getting heaps of PP Time, leading to 47 points by the end of that fateful rookie season, tying him for 22ndd in defensemen scoring. Yet on a per a minute basis, things were not as great, as his overall scoring put him 46th among defensemen. It was a better with the man advantage but still not good, as there he was tied for 22nd in PPPts but when looking at PPPts per 60 minutes he fell to 34th.

He also had a SOG rate of 1.7, which is low for someone producing at that level, plus with all that ice time came a good chunk in the defensive zone, leading to his OZ% being only 47.8%. His IPPs and his secondary assist rates were not too high or too low though.

But the biggest key is he was being valued not as the player who finished with a 47 point pace, but as the player who finished with 40 points in his last 61 games, with 14 of those points being PPPts. And yes, there are instances where it is correct to look not at a player's entire season, but instead how he ended. But for Faber, those 61 games were not reality, and instead consisted of contests where the Wild often struggled to find enough healthy and NHL caliber defensemen on a nightly basis, leading to everything being ideal for Faber, from deployment to TOI.

Fast forward to 2024-25, and his TOI rose, as did his PPTOI. But the PP time was heavily frontloaded, and although he scored less his secondary assist rate rose, plus his team 5×5 shooting percentage dropped from 9.7% to 7.0%, this despite him starting more than 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone. In essence, Faber, who had inked a huge contract extension in the offseason, had become a minute eater, but was seemingly no longer an elite scorer, likely due to the Wild not being forced to look to him.

Now Faber is back to his rate from 2023-24, but his actual rate, not his rate when he was getting all sorts of fantasy attention, and I think that is just about right. Yes, his team SH% at 5×5 is low at 6.5%, but it might not go much higher given that he is now being tasked with starting 57.5% of his shifts in the defensive zone, likely owing to the fac the Wild now have phenom Zeev Buium to whom they can turn as an offensive catalyst. And although Faber's four PPPts seems encouraging, that is a result of him getting a PPPt on every PPG scored while he has been on the ice, which is of course not sustainable. And his overall IPP is nearly 60%, which normally would be a very good sign except that it is far too high in view of his deployment.

What I said about Faber back when everyone was going nuts over him is to be careful, as he projects to be for Minnesota was Cam Fowler was for Anaheim, or Filip Hronek for Detroit, or Thomas Chabot is for Ottawa, or Nick Leddy was during his career. They are/were all minute eaters who could score, but not more than a 50 point level.

So the "real" Faber is indeed what we're seeing this season, Yes, his metrics are skewed; however, even if they renormalize I'd still see him producing as he is now, and was when looking at all of 2024-25. 

Question #3

It seems like when Dougie Hamilton has been counted out previously, he's found a way to rebound. But at 32 years old, is it realistic to see him rising again, whether on New Jersey or elsewhere?

No question Hamilton has been a disappointment of late, with his scoring and SOG rates on pace to fall for the third straight season. Yet this is a player who previously went from a 40 point scoring rate to a 70 point rate, plus is being paid $9M for two more seasons. The thing is, $9M is not at all as huge a number as when he inked the deal in 2021; plus, with only two more seasons left on the deal, it is far less of a bitter pill to swallow as it once was. But this could be both beneficial, in that now it is easier to see a universe where Hamilton can be traded despite his struggles, but also detrimental if the Devils just ride out his deal but deemphasize him before unloading him at some point in 2027-28.

The other question to ask is if he's as bad as seems. Indeed his SOG rate is down; but at 2.5 per game it is still a rate which could translate to 60+ points. What is concerning though is his TOI per game, despite his struggles, is actually tied for the highest it's been in any season in New Jersey. And as of now he is still taking the ice for the majority of New Jersey's man advantage minutes, albeit barely, plus with Luke Hughes not forcing that issue given that Hamilton has four PPPts to Hughes' mere one.

But for Hamilton to be merely a point per every other game player despite an 11.4% individual SH% is certainly concerning. And those added minutes Hamilton is getting are not actually doing him favors, as his OZ% is under 50%, having been 56.8% or higher in each of the last three seasons. And despite his sky high SH%, the team itself has a 5×5 SH% of 6.4% when Hamilton is on the ice. Yet it was nearly that low two seasons ago when Hamilton produced at a 66 point rate, plus, although Hamilton does have a mere three assists, just one has been secondary.

Hamilton is fortunate in that Hughes' play has not pushed him out of the PP picture; but his OZ% being down hurts. Could a trade reignite him? Never say never, but at his age and with his downward trend, I'd bet against it, and instead now count on Hamilton as more of a 40-50 point defenseman.

Question #5

Matt Boldy is scoring at a rate comparable to the past two seasons. But unlike 2023-24, when he was just reaching his breakout threshold, and 2024-25, when Kirill Kaprizov missed a chunk of time, there is nothing that should be standing in the way of him doing better. Is this what we should come to expect from him, or could he still have another gear?

Many – myself included – looked at what Boldy had done in 2023-24, and especially 2024-25, and said something along the lines of "oh, just wait until…." The meaning of that was Boldy was producing well but he likely had another gear which, due to then existing circumstances, was not able to emerge. But here we are in 2025-26, with a healthy and talented group of skaters surrounding Boldy, yet he is not producing any better than he has thus far. Is this temporary, or might we be seeing the best he'll bring to the table? Let's dig deeper to find out.

His SOG rate is in his normal range, and his personal shooting percentage is essentially at his career rate, so nothing stands out there. What is notable though is his TOI per game is higher at 21:05 per game, up almost a minute versus 2024-25, when it was also up almost the same amount versus 2023-24. But unlike last season, when his TOI rose but his PPTOI per game shrank, thus far the year-to-year gains he's made in TOI is both good, in that it's about 1:20 more PPTOI per game, yet not good in that now he's actually being deployed on the PK. Those factors explain why, despite all the added PP time, his OZ% is not markedly higher, and in fact stands right at 50%, although it's never been sky high, so that too is not an overall change.

What is a troublesome though is the team's 5×5 shooting percentage with him on the ice is near his peak in 2023-24. But his IPPs are right at the 60% mark, which is not what one usually sees from players who are a good bet to rise to become point per gamers. Yet this is also a somewhat of a good sign in that with half of Boldy's points thus far having come on the man advantage, if his PP IPP was significantly higher, then the worry would be about what will happen when it eventually comes back to earth.

Otherwise, his secondary assist rate is high, not only for him but any forward. And he has eight of his 15 points in just three games, meaning just seven in the other 13. Still, multipoint games are a good sign, as consistency is easier to achieve than explosive scoring. Also, although his SOG rate is, as noted, the same as last season, he fired ten pucks on net in one game alone, but has as many other games (three) with just one shot as with more than three.

But is that a function of his ice time going down markedly in the past two weeks, or has his ice time fallen due to him being less dialed into the offense? Tough to say, but not good to see no matter what the reasoning, since it shows Boldy's "spot" is not set in stone.

When looking for player comparables for Boldy, it is surprisingly difficult to find any. That's because in the history of the NHL, he is one of only two wingers who, in their first four seasons, had scoring rates of 0.75 to 1.0 and SOG rates of 3.0+ in three of those seasons, with the other being Bill Barber, who played in the 70s and early 80s and, for what it's worth, did have four point per game seasons and that was despite his career ending at age 32.

Among those who did so twice, it includes a few who become top producers, like David Pastrnak, Pavel Bure, and Phil Kessel, but far more who were solid but not star NHLers in Vladimir Tarasenko, Zach Parise, Bobby Ryan, and Rick Nash. Really the only recent example who didn't fully pan out was Victor Arvidsson, plus there is Cole Caufield, who is looking to be very good but for whom we cannot look back on many years of stats. If I had a takeaway from these names, it's that Boldy is probably a good bet to be a solid producer, but perhaps more in the mold of the second group, where he's not a perennial point per game player.

So in sum, Boldy doing about the same as he's previously done might be just about right. And for those awaiting a major breakout, it might be time to temper expectations.

Question #6

Is this the season John Carlson cedes his "the guy" spot to Jakub Chychrun? Or is Carlson going to continue being the ageless wonder?

Normally in hockey, one keeps their spot until they no longer rightfully deserve it. And although for sure Carlson is a shell of his former self, he's also not losing steam, still producing at a 60 point scoring rate, higher than he has in the past two seasons. But there can be exceptions to this "rule," one of which being where a player is not only younger but also higher paid, and Chychrun checks both those boxes.

Still, Chychrun has never run a PP1 – not once. And although he's higher paid, it's only by $1M, plus if you go by percentage of the cap when their deals were signed, Carlson's was far higher when it was inked way back in 2018. The other factor is Carlson is a UFA after this season, such that the Caps have an incentive to start to shift the balance of blueline power to Chychrun. But I can also see the Caps wanting to bring back Carlson if he still look capable of playing well and/or if Chychrun is not yet up to the task of providing the level of offense from the blueline that they were able to always able to get from Carlson, who also has a far, far better injury track record as well.

What's most interesting is the Caps, despite plenty of forward firepower, are putting both Carlson and Chychrun out there for PP1 of late, plus only three forwards, those being Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome and Tom Wilson. Could this continue? Perhaps, although I cannot think of any team in a number of years which has ran a 2D PP1 for more than a short duration of time, whereas, in contrast, the once unthinkable of a 5F PP1 has begun to occur more often.

So far it is Carlson who is out producing Chychrun on the PP two to one, although Chychrun is the only one of the two with a PPG. Perhaps most interesting though is Chychrun is outshooting Carlson 3.2 SOG per game versus 2.3; however, on the PP there is an even more stark difference, with Chychrun having fired 14 SOG with the man advantage, versus a mere three for Carlson.

With the Caps firmly in the playoff picture, I don't see Carlson going anywhere despite his status as a UFA to be. Plus, my guess is he's brought back on a cheaper, shorter duration contract, mainly to be there if – when? – Chychrun gets hurt. But seeing how things are unfolding, a changing of the guard does appear to be afoot, and I'd not be surprised if Carlson is outpointed by Chychrun if they play an identical number of games this season.

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Hopefully when it's time for the next mailbag I can answer even more of your actual questions. To get them to me you can either (1) email them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) send them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.