Analytics Advantage: Opportunity Knocks

Stas Pupkov

2026-01-02

This week's list is built around one simple idea: opportunity is the stat that moves first. Some of these names are popping because they've earned real minutes in high-leverage roles, while others are valuable because their deployment is so stable that the production becomes predictable. Whether it's a rookie landing next to elite talent, a winger stapled to a star and PP1, or a defenseman whose workload quietly guarantees peripherals every night, the common thread is the same , these are players whose usage is giving them repeatable fantasy paths, not just one-week noise.

Data Sources:

Player Data From Natural Stat Trick

Yahoo roster percentages via Frozen Tools.

Line combinations and power-play deployment via Daily Faceoff and Frozen Tools.

All information current as of January 1, 2026.

San Jose Sharks — Igor Chernyshov (14 percent, F)

Chernyshov has gone from debut curiosity to legitimate short-term fantasy option almost immediately. Through his first seven NHL games, the 20-year-old has eight points, including three goals, while averaging just under 16 minutes a night. The raw production jumps off the page, but the usage underneath it is what makes this worth paying attention to. He has already been trusted in top-line looks and is seeing consistent PP2 time, which is not something San Jose hands out lightly to first-year players.

The line data tells the story. Chernyshov has spent time next to Macklin Celebrini and William Eklund, which is exactly where you want a young scorer landing. Even when the combinations rotate, he is staying in offensive roles rather than getting buried on a checking line. His shot rate is solid at just over two per game, and the assists show that he is not just finishing plays but actively involved in possession and chance creation.

There is obvious volatility here. Seven games is still a tiny sample, and his ice time could dip if the Sharks reshuffle or if the production cools. But San Jose has every incentive to let him play through mistakes, and the early returns suggest the coaching staff is comfortable giving him offensive responsibility rather than sheltering him.

Minnesota Wild — Mats Zuccarello (19 percent, F)

Zuccarello's value right now is almost entirely deployment-driven, and that deployment has held steady despite the roster churn underneath him. Even after Marco Rossi was moved out in the Quinn Hughes trade, Zuccarello has remained glued to Kirill Kaprizov at five-on-five and stayed locked into PP1. Through 21 games he has 17 points, with five on the power play, and the recent game log shows the same pattern repeating. When Minnesota's offense shows up, it is still running through that top unit. He has multiple two-point nights in December, continues to log heavy PPTOI in the three-to-five-minute range, and is being trusted late in games regardless of which center is filling the middle.

The short-term risk is not performance, it is structural. There is legitimate buzz around the Wild adding a top-six center as a deadline rental, which could reshuffle the forward group again. That said, Zuccarello's spot next to Kaprizov has survived multiple center changes already this season, and his power-play role has not budged. As long as he stays on PP1 with elite PP share, his assist-driven profile keeps him viable in standard formats. He is not a ceiling play, but the floor remains stable enough to justify rostering while Minnesota continues to compress its offense through the top line and top unit.

Takeaway: Zuccarello is a deployment-first fantasy hold. As long as he remains attached to Kaprizov at five on five and stays locked into PP1 with heavy power-play usage, the assists will continue to come even if the center rotation changes again. The risk is a future roster move that reshapes the top six, but for now his role is stable, repeatable, and strong enough to roster in standard leagues while Minnesota's offense continues to run through its top unit.

Philadelphia Flyers — Travis Sanheim (32 percent, D)

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Sanheim is still the exact kind of defenseman who stays fantasy-relevant because the role is absurdly stable and the peripherals do real work. Through 39 games he has 17 points, but the real value is the workload: 24:34 per night with 72 blocks (1.85 per game) and enough hits (0.64 per game) to keep him from being a pure one-category play. Even when the points are quiet, that minute load keeps him constantly involved and gives you steady multicat accumulation.

The quarter split shows why he's more interesting right now than his raw point pace suggests. Quarter 1 was basically "all even strength" (0:46 PPTOI per game, zero power-play points), but Quarter 2 is where the man-advantage role actually showed up: 1:52 PPTOI per game and three PPP in 20 games. That is a meaningful deployment change, not a random spike, and the game log backs it up with ceiling games when the power-play time jumps – the Buffalo game (two assists, two PPP, 6:29 PPTOI) is the clean example of what happens when he gets real touches on the unit.

Takeaway: Sanheim is a strong hold in multicat formats because the minutes and block floor are elite, and the Quarter 2 PP bump gives him a more believable path to assists. In points-only leagues he's still more matchup-dependent, but as long as he's flirting with 25 minutes nightly and keeping some PP involvement, he's closer to "roster" than "stream."

Seattle Kraken — Eeli Tolvanen (37 percent, F)

Tolvanen's recent fantasy value is being driven by a clean combination of role stability and category coverage. Through 38 games he has 25 points while sitting firmly in a middle-six role at even strength and holding PP1 usage that has hovered around the two-minute mark most nights. The scoring pace is solid, but the real separator is the banger floor. He is averaging nearly three hits per game, over a block per game, and close to two shots, which keeps him useful even when the points dry up. The quarter splits show a steady upward trend in ice time and shot volume, and the game log reflects it with frequent one- or two-point nights mixed in with strong peripheral lines.

Seattle has moved Tolvanen around different center combinations, but the results have stayed consistent. He has produced next to Chandler Stephenson and Shane Wright, which matters because it shows the value is not tied to one fragile line setup. As long as he continues to see PP1 looks and stays above 16 minutes a night, the profile remains fantasy-friendly across formats.

Takeaway: Tolvanen is a strong hold in multicat leagues and a reliable add in standard formats. The points come in waves, but the hit, block, and shot volume give him a stable floor, and the continued PP1 usage provides enough upside to justify rostering him through this stretch of the schedule.

Vegas Golden Knights — Noah Hanifin (42 percent, D)

Hanifin's box-score profile is doing something kind of funny this year: he's producing like a usable fantasy defenseman without scoring like one. Through 29 games he has 14 points, six on the power play, and he's averaging 23:41 a night — the usage is absolutely top-pair heavy, and it spikes even higher in tight games (he was basically living on the ice in late December). The "how" matters here: he's not getting there via goals (2 goals on 75 shots is a hilariously low 2.7%), but he is getting there through volume and role. He's firing 2.6 shots per game, picking up assists, and staying involved on the man advantage (about 1:30 PPTOI on average, with multiple nights well above that).

The peripherals are sneaky solid too. He's not a hits merchant (0.55 hits/g), but the blocks are strong (1.5 blocks/g) and that plays in formats that count them. His recent game log also shows the exact kind of "assist streak" profile you want from a high-minute defenseman: lots of 1A nights, a couple multi-assist games (the three-assist night vs EDM), and steady shot totals even when the points aren't there. If even a normal percentage of his shot volume starts going in, the line looks a lot better fast — and you don't need a full-blown heater for that to matter.

Takeaway: Hanifin is a hold/add based on minutes + shot volume + power-play involvement. The goal total is misleading (2.7% won't stay that low forever), and the blocks keep the floor playable even when the assists cool.

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