Analytics Advantage: Fantasy Opportunities for Tarasenko, Duclair, Nazar, Manson, and Walman

Stas Pupkov

2026-01-23

Next week's group is largely shaped by opportunity rather than long-term certainty. Injuries, temporary promotions, and shifting line combinations have opened short windows where a handful of players are seeing more ice time, better line mates, or power-play looks than they usually get. Some of these roles will disappear quickly as lineups settle, but others have a chance to stick if the performance matches the usage. This is the kind of week where staying flexible matters. The value comes from recognizing when to act early, riding the role while it lasts, and being willing to move on once the deployment changes.

Data Sources:

Player Data From Natural Stat Trick

Yahoo roster percentages via Frozen Tools.

Line combinations and power-play deployment via Daily Faceoff and Frozen Tools.

All information current as of January 21st, 2026.

Minnesota Wild — Vladimir Tarasenko (23%, F)

Tarasenko's fantasy value right now is being propped up by role stability more than name recognition, and that matters given how banged up Minnesota has been. Through 44 games he has 28 points (0.64 P/GP, 52-point pace) while holding down consistent PP1 usage at just under three minutes a night. The minutes are not elite, but the power-play share is real, and that has been enough to keep his production afloat even when the five-on-five lines have shuffled underneath him.

The recent stretch shows why he's back on the radar. Over his last five games he has seven points, including back-to-back multi-point nights against Toronto and Montreal, with PPTOI spiking north of three minutes in those contests. The quarter breakdown tells a similar story. Quarter 1 leaned heavily on the power play, Quarter 2 cooled off at even strength, and Quarter 3 has combined steady minutes with improved finishing. He is not firing the puck like peak Tarasenko, but he's still hovering around two shots per game and converting at a respectable rate.

The bigger picture hinges on health of those around him. With Matt Boldy working his way back and Marcus Johansson returning on Thursday night, Minnesota's top six is about to look more crowded. That could stabilize Tarasenko's line mates or push him into a slightly lower-leverage role if the Wild decide to redistribute offense. For now, though, he continues to see meaningful PP touches and is trusted late in games, which keeps the floor intact.

Takeaway: Tarasenko is a short-term hold or add in standard leagues while he remains on PP1 and continues to see near-three minutes of power-play time. The ceiling is not what it once was, but the role is strong enough to justify rostering until Minnesota gets fully healthy and the forward hierarchy reshuffles.

New York Islanders — Anthony Duclair (7%, F)

Duclair's current fantasy appeal comes down to timing and opportunity. With the Islanders banged up, he has been pushed into a more offensive role than his season-long averages suggest, and he has taken advantage. He is riding a five-point stretch over his last five games, seeing more offensive-zone usage, and logging 17-18 minutes on nights where New York needs scoring. That is a meaningful jump from his early-season workload, when he was buried closer to 12–13 minutes and offered very little fantasy relevance.

The usage is doing most of the work. Duclair has spent recent games skating alongside Mathew Barzal, which immediately raises the assist and goal upside even without heavy power-play volume. His PP time remains modest overall, but it has ticked up slightly during this recent stretch, and his shooting efficiency has been strong enough to turn limited looks into real production. This is not a volume-driven breakout, but rather a player being placed in better spots and converting while the door is open.

The risk is obvious and approaching quickly. Bo Horvat is expected back around January 24, and his return is likely to compress the Islanders' top six again. When that happens, Duclair is the type of winger who can slide back into a lower-usage role without much warning. His fantasy value is not insulated by shots, hits, or special teams work, so if the minutes fall back into the 12-13 range, the points will dry up fast.

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Takeaway: Duclair is a short-term add while the opportunity exists. Ride the hot stretch and the Barzal exposure now, but stay ready to move on once Horvat returns and the lines settle. This is a classic "use it while it's there" situation, not a rest-of-season bet.

Chicago Blackhawks — Frank Nazar (17%, F)

Nazar's fantasy relevance right now is much more about where he's playing than the fact that he's just returned from injury. After missing a short stretch, he has stepped straight back into a meaningful role, holding top-six minutes at even strength and seeing real power-play time. That immediate deployment matters, because it tells you the coaching staff views him as part of the offensive mix rather than someone easing back in on a sheltered line.

Through 34 games he has 21 points, good for a 50-plus point pace, while averaging nearly 18 minutes a night. The usage has been steady across different line combinations, with Nazar spending extended time next to established wingers like Teuvo Teräväinen (Currently DTD) and Tyler Bertuzzi. Even when Chicago rotates personnel, he continues to stay in offensive looks instead of drifting into a purely defensive assignment. The power-play role has also been consistent, hovering around the 2:30 to 3:00 PPTOI range most nights, which gives him a repeatable path to assists.

The profile is not built on flash. His shot rate sits just under two per game, and the value comes more from involvement and touch volume than pure finishing. That does introduce some week-to-week variance, especially on a Chicago team that can struggle to score, but the minutes and usage provide a stable enough foundation to keep him fantasy-relevant while he's in this role.

Takeaway: Nazar is a role-driven add now that he's back in the lineup. The injury itself is not the story; the immediate return to top-six minutes and power-play usage is. As long as that deployment holds, he offers a legitimate path to steady points rather than a short-term streamer profile.

Colorado Avalanche — Josh Manson (50%, D)

Manson's fantasy value is as straightforward as it gets: minutes, muscle, and role stability. Through 48 games he has just 21 points, so this is not a scoring bet, but the underlying usage explains why he keeps showing up as relevant anyway. He is averaging a touch over 18 minutes a night, regularly matching up against top competition, and doing the kind of work that quietly piles up value in multi-cat formats.

The production profile has barely changed across quarters, but the involvement has. He is consistently north of two hits per game, blocks at a strong rate for a non-shot-blocking specialist, and plays heavy minutes in all situations except the power play. The lack of PP usage caps the ceiling, but it also clarifies the role. You are rostering Manson for defensive workload and peripheral accumulation, not for surprise offense.

What makes him more interesting right now is the pairing usage. He has rotated next to Brent Burns, Samuel Girard, and Cale Makar at different points, which signals trust rather than sheltering. When paired with Makar or Toews, the assist potential ticks up slightly just from proximity and puck movement, even if he is not driving offense himself. That said, Devon Toews is expected back soon, and that could tighten the rotation again. If Manson loses some of those higher-leverage minutes once the blue line is fully healthy, the value thins out quickly.

The recent game log reflects the exact profile you expect. One- or two-assist nights pop up occasionally, but most games are built on hits, blocks, and solid time on ice. That consistency is why he remains rostered despite the modest point totals.

Takeaway: Manson is a role-based hold in multi-cat leagues while the minutes stay high. He is not a scoring play, and the return of Toews introduces some short-term risk to his pairing and workload. If his role holds near 18 to 20 minutes with steady defensive assignments, he remains useful. If those minutes slide back into a true third-pair role, he becomes a quick cut outside of deep banger formats.

Edmonton Oilers — Jake Walman (30%, D)

Walman is turning into one of those 'quietly useful' defense adds because the Oilers are giving him real minutes in games that matter. In 22 games with Edmonton, he's sitting at 13 points (0.59 P/GP) while logging 19:48 a night, which is a legit workload for a guy who's supposed to be a depth add. The plus-minus isn't pretty, but the fantasy case isn't coming from that category anyway – it's coming from time on ice, a bit of power-play exposure, and steady defensive peripherals.

The usage has been more interesting than the raw totals. Early on, he bounced around pairings but still found himself next to high-end partners like Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, and even when he wasn't stapled to one spot, the minutes stayed high. That's usually the biggest signal with a mid-roster defenseman; coaches don't hand out 20 minutes by accident. Quarter 3 also shows a clear shift in how he's being used,  his PPTOI jumps (2:15 per game in that short segment), and the recent game log backs it up with a few games where he's seeing meaningful power-play run (including a 5:48 PPTOI night).

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Stat profile wise, he's not a hitter, but he does give you blocks. He's at 41 blocks in 22 games with Edmonton, so you're getting a real floor in leagues that count them, and that helps keep him rosterable even when the points cool off. The shot rate (1.6 per game) is fine – not elite – but it's enough that he isn't totally dependent on fluky secondary assists.

The risk is role volatility. Edmonton's blue line can shuffle quickly, and Walman's value is very sensitive to whether he stays in the top four and keeps any slice of the power play. If he slides into a true third-pair deployment with PP time disappearing, he becomes more of a deep-league blocks streamer than a standard-league hold.

Takeaway: Walman is a legit add in standard leagues as long as the minutes stay near 19–20 and the PP usage remains non-zero. He won't carry your offense, but the recent assist trickle plus blocks gives him a usable weekly floor. If the pairings settle and he sticks near Bouchard/Ekholm-type usage, he's more than just a short-term heater.

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