Analytics Advantage: Important Roles or Top Usage for Coyle, Granlund, Samuelsson, and More

Stas Pupkov

2026-01-30

This week's list is built around role changes that actually matter. Some of these players are producing because their deployment has shifted, more power-play time, more minutes, better line mates, or a clearer spot in the lineup. Others are here because the points have cooled off while the underlying usage still supports a rebound. The goal is not to chase the last box score, it's to identify who is gaining real opportunity and who is being quietly propped up by deployment that can sustain value.

Across the group, the common thread is signal over noise. Power-play time, ice time trends, and line stability tend to predict whether a player's production is repeatable or about to evaporate. That lens makes Charlie Coyle's special teams bump meaningful, keeps Mikael Granlund firmly on the add radar, and explains why Valeri Nichushkin and Matvei Michkov are more "monitor the role" than "panic over the slump." Even on defense, Mattias Samuelsson is a good example of how heavy minutes plus peripherals can create a real fantasy floor, even without power-play juice

Data Sources:

Player Data From Natural Stat Trick

Yahoo roster percentages via Frozen Tools.

Line combinations and power-play deployment via Daily Faceoff and Frozen Tools.

All information current as of January 28th, 2026.

Columbus Blue Jackets — Charlie Coyle (25 percent, F)

Coyle's fantasy value right now is being driven by a quiet but meaningful shift in usage rather than a dramatic change in his overall profile. Since moving to Columbus, he has settled into a stable third-line center role while picking up consistent special teams work on both the power play and penalty kill. Through 52 games, he's sitting at 35 points (0.67 P/GP, 55-point pace), which already puts this season closer to his stronger Boston years than his more muted middle stretches.

The recent game log shows why he's back on the radar. Over his last eight games, Coyle has six points, including a three-point night against Tampa Bay and a goal-and-assist performance versus Philadelphia. What stands out more than the raw points is the power-play usage spike. In January alone, he has multiple games north of three minutes of PPTOI, including a five-minute outing against Calgary and over four minutes against Ottawa. That's a noticeable jump from his early-season power-play involvement and aligns with the Quarter 3 usage trend, where his PPTOI jumped to nearly 2:45 per game.

The even-strength role has also evolved slightly. While he remains listed on the third line most nights, recent combinations have included shifts with Kirill Marchenko and Adam Fantilli, offering more offensive upside than his earlier grinder-heavy deployments. His overall ice time has crept upward as well, hovering around 18 minutes per night during this stretch, with a few games pushing past 20 minutes. The shot volume remains modest (1.6 SOG/G on the season), but that has been enough when paired with increased touch time on the power play.

There are still clear limits to the profile because Coyle is not a volume shooter and his fantasy output is sensitive to power-play opportunity. If his PP role shrinks back toward the one-minute range, the point pace likely follows. That said, Columbus has shown a willingness to trust him in multiple situations, and the recent deployment suggests his role is not purely temporary.

Takeaway: Coyle is a viable short-term add or hold while the power-play usage remains elevated and the minutes stay near 18 per night. He's not a breakout candidate, but the combination of steady deployment, recent production, and expanded special teams work gives him a usable floor in standard leagues. Monitor PPTOI closely. If that slips, the fantasy value thins quickly.

Anaheim Ducks — Mikael Granlund (29 percent, F)

Granlund's fantasy value this week is almost entirely a role story, and it's a strong one. Through 35 games with Anaheim, he has 27 points (0.77 P/GP, 63-point pace) while averaging 18:47 a night and carrying a heavy power-play workload at 3:11 per game. That combination – real minutes plus real PP share – is the clearest path to repeatable production you can ask for from a player sitting under 30 percent rostered.

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The recent game log makes the case loud. He just posted a three-goal game in Edmonton on January 26, with all three coming on the power play and his PPTOI spiking to 6:13. That is an extreme night, but it matches the broader pattern: Granlund has consistently been used as a power-play driver rather than a passenger. Even outside that eruption, he has been stacking assists in the last week with multi-point efforts against Calgary (two assists) and steady contributions against Seattle and Dallas. The shot volume is also healthy for this profile, sitting at 2.1 shots per game on the season, which helps keep him from being purely assist-dependent.

The quarter splits show a meaningful shift in how Anaheim is using him. Quarter 1 featured the highest PPTOI (3:40) but lighter overall minutes. Quarter 3 is where things get more interesting, as his PPTOI dips to 2:43, but his overall TOI jumps to 20:43, suggesting he's being leaned on more heavily at five-on-five. The line combinations reflect that transition too. Early quarters had him regularly tied to Troy Terry and Frank Vatrano, while the most recent stretch has him rotating with younger top-six pieces like Mason McTavish and Cutter Gauthier. That kind of versatility is usually a sign of coaching trust, even if the exact linemates shuffle.

The risk is that the profile can be sensitive to context. His shooting percentage is elevated (16.0 percent), and Anaheim's lines have moved around enough that a cold week at even strength could hit quickly if the power-play share ever slips. That said, the usage floor here is unusually high. A forward getting over three minutes of PPTOI per night does not need everything to break perfectly to remain fantasy-relevant.

Takeaway: Granlund is a legitimate add or hold in standard leagues while the power-play role remains this large. The hat trick game is not the expectation, but the underlying value, heavy PPTOI, strong minutes, and steady shot rate, is stable enough to justify rostering even if the scoring cools off. Watch whether the PPTOI stays near the three-minute mark and whether he remains attached to Anaheim's offensive drivers at five-on-five.

Colorado Avalanche — Valeri Nichushkin (58 percent, F)

Nichushkin is one of those players who can look boring for a week and still matter, because the underlying ingredients stay fantasy-relevant. On the season he has 29 points in 42 games (0.69 P/GP, 57-point pace) with a strong peripheral base: 2.4 shots per game, plus hits and a bit of blocks. The roster rate is already elevated for this series, but he's included here because the role is still valuable and the recent production dip is starting to create hesitation in some leagues.

The key is that his value is tightly connected to usage, and the usage trend is where the warning light lives. His quarter splits show the production sliding hard in Quarter 3: just three points in nine games, and the power-play time dropping to 1:29 per night (down from 2:54 and 2:12 earlier). The game log matches that story. His January run is filled with low-event nights, and his PPTOI has been inconsistent, ranging from zero to modest totals in several games, even while his overall minutes stay in the mid-to-high teens.

That's why this is a 'check the role' profile more than a 'chase the points' profile. The five-on-five deployment still looks stable enough, with Nichushkin spending most of the year attached to Brock Nelson and rotating among Colorado's supporting scorers (Artturi Lehkonen, Ross Colton, and others). When his minutes push up, he can still create value through volume and high-quality touches. But if the power-play share remains suppressed, the ceiling changes quickly, because he is not getting a steady stream of PPP this season (three total so far).

The good news is that the baseline categories are still there. Even in a down month he can help in shots and hits, and the overall pace is still usable. The risk is that managers assume 'Avalanche winger' automatically means top-end points, when the actual fantasy return is much more dependent on whether he is getting meaningful PP time or not.

Takeaway: Nichushkin is more of a hold than a must-add right now. The shot rate and peripheral floor keep him roster-able, but the recent dip and the Quarter 3 PPTOI decline make him less of a set-and-forget play. The main thing to watch is whether his PPTOI climbs back toward the 2:30–3:00 range. If that happens, the points usually follow for this type of player on this team. If it stays around one to two minutes, he's more of a category stabilizer than an offensive difference-maker.

Philadelphia Flyers — Matvei Michkov (46 percent, F)

Michkov's rookie season has settled into a more volatile stretch lately, but the overall fantasy profile still looks more stable than the recent point totals suggest. Through 51 games, he has 27 points (0.53 P/GP, 43-point pace) while maintaining solid shot volume at 2.2 shots per game and regular power-play usage just north of two minutes per night. The headline production is down from last season's pace, but the underlying role has not collapsed in a way that would indicate a long-term fade.

The recent game log explains the concern. Over the last two weeks, Michkov has gone through several low-point nights despite healthy shot totals, including games with four to seven shots and no scoring. That kind of stretch tends to trigger drop discussions, especially in shallower leagues. However, the cold run is not driven by reduced opportunity. His January usage still shows consistent power-play involvement, including multiple games over three minutes of PPTOI, and his ice time has remained fairly steady in the mid-14s to mid-15s. The three-point night in Colorado on January 23 is a reminder of how quickly the production can spike when a few pucks go in. The entire team has struggled in the last 10 GP, one of the worst in the league.

The line context has been messy, but not alarming. Michkov has bounced between several combinations, including stretches with Sean Couturier, Bobby Brink, and Noah Cates, rather than locking into one stable top-six trio. That instability caps the ceiling on a night-to-night basis, but it has not eliminated his offensive role. He is still being used as a driver on his line and remains a fixture on the power play, even if the Flyers' overall scoring environment limits his margin for error.

The main limitation is efficiency. His shooting percentage is down compared to last season, and without elite PP conversion or heavy five-on-five scoring around him, extended droughts are going to happen. He is also not padding value with hits or faceoffs, which makes him more sensitive to scoring swings than some other young forwards.

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Takeaway: Michkov is a hold in most formats and a patience test rather than a problem to solve. The shot volume, steady PP role, and occasional usage spikes still support meaningful upside, even if the weekly floor is shaky. He is not a must-add if he's on the wire in shallow leagues, but dropping him outright risks missing the next hot stretch. The key signal to monitor is PPTOI. As long as he stays around two minutes or higher, the underlying value remains intact, even when the points go quiet.

Buffalo Sabres — Mattias Samuelsson (65 percent, D)

Samuelsson's sudden fantasy relevance is almost entirely usage-driven, but that doesn't make it flimsy. Through 50 games, he has already produced 31 points (0.62 P/GP, 51-point pace), a massive jump from his previous offensive baseline, while continuing to log heavy minutes at nearly 23 minutes per night. This is not a power-play breakout in disguise, as his PPTOI remains essentially nonexistent, but the combination of top-pair deployment, increased puck involvement, and strong peripheral output has quietly reshaped his fantasy profile.

The recent game log shows how this value has surfaced. Samuelsson has seven points over his last four games, including a three-assist night in Toronto and multiple two-point efforts in January. What stands out is not just the points, but how consistently they are coming at even strength while he continues to pile up blocks and hits. Over that same stretch, he has regularly cleared 24 minutes of ice time, with several games pushing toward 26 or even 27 minutes. That kind of workload creates repeatable assist chances, especially when paired with Buffalo's top offensive defensemen.

The pairing context matters here. Samuelsson has spent most of the season rotating alongside Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram, giving him steady exposure to Buffalo's primary puck-movers without being asked to drive offense himself. Quarter 3 usage reinforces this trend. His scoring has ticked up despite shot volume dropping, while his average TOI has climbed over 24 minutes per night. That suggests the production is coming from sustained offensive-zone presence and secondary touches rather than volume shooting or power-play padding.

There are still clear constraints. Samuelsson is not a shooter (1.4 SOG/G), does not see meaningful power-play time, and his offensive output is highly dependent on Buffalo controlling play when he is on the ice. If the Sabres cool off or his minutes slip back toward the 20-minute range, the point pace will come down quickly. However, the peripheral floor is real. He is averaging over two blocks per game with solid hit totals, which gives him category value even when the points slow. Another thing to keep in mind: Buffalo has been the best team in hockey the past 25 GP, so keep an eye on any role changes to maintain the heater.

Takeaway: Samuelsson is a strong hold, and a viable add, in standard leagues that value peripherals. The scoring pace is higher than expected, but the minutes, pairings, and recent usage support continued relevance. He is not a power-play-driven mirage, but his value is tightly tied to ice time. As long as he stays north of 23 minutes per night in Buffalo's top-four rotation, the floor remains useful even if the point streak cools.

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