Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the sadly now dormant "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thought of a real-life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired Canada born NHL forward

CLUE #2 – I played in the renowned Quebec International Pee Wee Hockey Tournament 

CLUE #3 – Despite that, I was undrafted

CLUE #4 – I played four seasons of Canadian Juniors

CLUE #5 – I debuted in the NHL at age 21 and was an NHL regular at 22

CLUE #6 – In my sixth season, I was traded twice in the same month

CLUE #7 – When I was 28, I signed with what would turn out to be my last NHL team

CLUE #8 – I had my most productive seasons with this team, with one of nearly 60 points and another where I played under 50 games but my full season scoring rate was 65 points

CLUE #9 – I produced at these levels despite fewer than five total PPPts in those two seasons

CLUE #10 – And although for my first team I had double digit totals for PPPts twice, on my final team I had fewer cumulative PPPts than SHPs

CLUE #11 – I won two Stanley Cups as a player, both for my final team

CLUE #12 – I retired due to injury at age 36

CLUE #13 – The teams I played for, in order, were the Wild, Rangers, Thrashers, and Penguins

CLUE #14 – My initials are P.D.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. 

Topic #1 – In a 10 team, H2H category league with a $110M cap (actual salaries) and rosters of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, plus 9 Bench, each team can keep any 6 players, with no limit on how many years they can be kept, and they are kept in the round they were drafted, except for any keepers that were free agent pickups, who are kept in final draft slots, a team has this roster: 

F: Dylan Cozens, Anton Frondell, James Hagens, Alex Laferiere, Dylan Guenther, Gabe Perrault, Jackson Blake, Yakov Trenin, Jacob Melanson, Ivan Demidov, Porter Martone, Marco Rossi, Michael Hage
D: Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, Miro Heiskanen, Brandt Clarke, Cole Hutson, Sam Dickinson, Erik Karlsson, Mattias Samuelsson, Moritz Seider, Sam Dickinson
G: Jacob Fowler, Jakub Dobes, Carter Hart

Which six should be kept? Should the GM make any trades?

There are six keepers per team, but 26 players on each squad, making keepers important enough to get right, but also unlikely to win someone the league on their own. There are also 260 players owned, hence some of the "further out" prospects on this roster.

This team has a decision to make, which is to look ahead or try to compete now. And of those two options, I think they need to do the latter. Other than Makar, this team has no "studs" but instead some very solid players. To me, that says they should go younger and try to get set up to be great later rather than sooner.

Besides Makar, who should be kept? Demidov for certain, plus Seider and Sanderson. The other two should be guys obtained in trade. The first player I'm trading away is Heiskanen. He has fully rebounded; however, his personal SH% and particularly his team SH% at 5×5 are too high, with the latter at 10.6% after averaging about 9.0% over the past three seasons. Also, his OZ% is slowly ticking downward, as is his SOG rate. Although his TOI per game is back to nearly his career best, it now comes with over three minutes of SH duty per game, which is up by more than two minutes versus last season, and with a mere one SHP to show for it.

To me, this suggests Heiskanen's production is either unsustainably high, or, if not, it is all but assured not to increase. Yet he has name value, and him producing at 60+ point level after a poor season has lent credibility in the eyes of others to him doing it on an ongoing basis. What all this builds to is that he's a perfect player to trade, as some team likely will see him as a keeper.

The other player who could be a possible keeper for another team is Karlsson, who, despite his age, is thriving and might be seen as a key player for a "win now" team. His team SH% is stratospheric as well, and he also has added SH time, so this is not sustainable. Maybe he cannot actually be traded, but it should be attempted.

Hopefully those players will net the team two "better" keepers. If trades cannot be made, then I'd keep Guenther and Clarke, again with a forward-looking focus. 

Topic #2 – In a roto league with skater starting line-ups of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 1W, 1F, 4D, and skater categories of G, A, PTS, PIM, HIT, PPPts, SHP, GWG, a GM can keep up to four players. Their issue is they are having a tough time deciding which for among Nathan MacKinnon, Kirill Kaprizov, Martin Necas, Brady Tkachuk, and Quinn Hughes. 

If you haven't read the thread, you definitely should. Everyone is in agreement that MacKinnon and Kaprizov are for sure keeps. The main debate is centered upon Necas versus Hughes.

Seemingly Tkachuk and Hughes provide the perfect balance, with Tkachuk doing what Hughes doesn't, while Hughes, particularly since coming to Minnesota, has flourished. While it is a valid point that Necas and MacKinnon would provide a very attractive streaming option, so too would Hughes and Kaprizov.

The biggest question revolves around Necas. He is indeed thriving alongside MacKinnon, and, as importantly, has remained tethered to MacKinnon. If they continue to play together, both should produce well. But whereas Hughes' metrics are consistent with past seasons, and Kaprizov is unsustainably underperforming, MacKinnon and Necas look to be overachieving.

MacKinnon is a truly elite player, but he has only once been this superb, and the difference this time is his personal and 5×5 team SH% are both well above his highest ever rates. Will MacKinnon's scoring crater? Certainly not; however, a rate of 110-120 is more realistic given his past results plus him now being on the other side of 30.

As for Necas, he was the leading scorer in the entire NHL after 22 games last season. From then on he was well below a point per game. This season he's been great; but looking at With Or Without You data, Necas has skated about 17% of his ice time without MacKinnon, but only six goals were scored during that time, versus 79 when they were on the ice together, meaning 93% of goals scored with Necas on the ice occurred during the 83% of the time he was on with Mac. While for Mac, he’s skated 19% of his shifts without Necas, with 16 goals being scored during that time, for about 17%. MacKinnon is barely a lesser player without Necas, Necas is hugely dependent on MacKinnon. Of course, if they skate together 80% of the time that doesn’t matter much if at all, but it is concerning.

Again, what I keep coming back to is how complimentary Tkachuk and Hughes are, as the areas one is weak are ones where the other thrives. Moreover, a Hughes and Kaprizov stack is likely going to be nearly comparable to a MacKinnon Necas stack. Also, keeping Hughes gives the team an unquestioned top-three fantasy D-man, whereas Necas maybe can be a top-ten fantasy forward, emphasis being on maybe. I'm letting Necas go here, without much hesitation.

Topic #3 – In a Keep 20, roto (daily settings) league with lineups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2G, 1UTIL plus 4 bench and 3IR, and categories of G,A,PTS, +/-, PIM, PPA, PPG, D PTS – W, SV, SV%, a GM has the following on their roster.
C- Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, Dylan Larkin, Pierre-Luc Dubois
RW- Mitch Marner, Sam Reinhart, J.J. Peterka, Valeri Nichushkin, Tom Wilson, Patrick Kane
LW- Alex Debrincat, Drake Batherson(RW),
D- Seth Jones, MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson, Roman Josi, Thomas Chabot,Mattias Ekholm
G- Jake Oettinger, Filip Gustavsson, Darcy Kuemper, Alex Lyon
IR- Aleksander Barkov, Jake Sanderson, Auston Matthews

Another GM in their league, who is notorious for overvaluing their players, is looking for a center so there is hope a trade can be made where this team gives up a center and gets, in return, one of Kyle Connor, Jake Guentzel, or Clayton Keller. Is there a good deal to make?

It's interesting that usually centers are not coveted, as there's far more depth at that position than at wing. While the other GM might be a tough/shrewd negotiator, this is a deal I'd try to make if indeed a center can be turned into a wing.

The two centers I'm trying to deal are Larkin and Scheifele. Larkin has underperformed this season, after doing so last season as well. It's almost as if now that those around him are better he's gotten worse. Still, his past success can be pointed to, and he's not that old. Scheifele is quite old, yet on the surface looks to have discovered the fountain of youth. But if you check under the hood, you see his 13.2% team SH% at 5×5 from someone who hasn't even been in double digits since 2019-20.

What about MacKinnon or Matthews? MacKinnon, notwithstanding what I said above, is still amazing, and outclasses any of those wingers, so he can't be traded. As for Matthews, you can't trade him when his value has never been lower. Of course, there's a chance he never rises back to do as well as he did in the not so recent past; however, given that he's still young and what he's done previously, the play is to hold and hope.

What wings to target? I'd try to turn Larkin or Scheifele into Connor if possible; but Connor seemingly now being a 90-point floor player, and the tendencies of the other GM, will make it unlikely he could be had for either of those two. Keller has turned around his season, but his totals for the season mask this. His PP IPP is abnormally low, and so too is his secondary assist rate. Keller's team SH% at 5×5 is high as well, but, at 11.9%, not as glaringly high as Scheifele's. Also, Keller's individual SH% is low for him.

As for Guentzel, his team SH% at 5×5 is 13.2% after being 11.6% last season but never once previously – even in all the seasons he played with Sidney Crosby – being in double digits. Still, he looks like he's found a nice fit in Tampa. But his name value, and team, coupled with the other GM being so favoring of their players, makes me think Guentzel would cost more than he is worth, or, put differently, that if there is a "bargain" to be had, it's Keller, not Guentzel.

I'd try Larkin for Keller. If that doesn't get it done, I'd offer Scheifele, but ask for a sweetener or make it a two for one. If that still doesn't get a deal done, then either take Scheifele for Keller, which I personally would, with the logic being centers are more plentiful, or see if Scheifele can net a return that's better than Keller from another GM.

Topic #4 – In a points only league where 8F, 4D and 1G are kept, a very competitive team has these defensemen from which to choose as keepers: Jake Sanderson, Simon Nemec, Sean Durzi, Zeev Buium, Darren Raddysh, Zayne Parekh, Denton Mateychuk, Erik Karlsson, Brandt Clarke, and Bowen Byram. Which four make the most sense?

From the outset, we can eliminate Nemec, who might someday be great but for at least the time being is a victim of the numbers game in New Jersey for now, as well as Durzi, who is at best second fiddle in Utah, plus Byram, who's made strides this season but still seems like a longshot to become a productive fantasy defenseman, and Mateychuk, who looks like he might have a similar problem as Durzi.

Of those left, Sanderson is a must. He was starting to hit his stride when he got hurt, plus was on pace to have a higher production rate despite doing worse on the PP. He is very good now and remains a realistic bet to become a top tier fantasy d-man. Although he doesn't come without concerns, Raddysh having done as well as he has for as long as he has makes him a keep without hesitation. No – his SH% won't be double digits again, but other than that his metrics seen reasonable, such that the only concerns are he signs somewhere else and it's a misfit, or Victor Hedman becomes top dog again as happened to Mikhail Sergachev. But Hedman is now older, and less likely to be reinstalled; and if Sergachev could find the success he has in Utah, so too could Raddysh elsewhere, or so it seems. Those two are slam dunk keeps. And although I noted above that Karlsson is overachieving, he's still a downside 55-point d-man until proven otherwise, which, to a win now team, is keeper material.

Who, though, is keeper four? Clarke seems like the safest keep, as Drew Doughty has really shown his age and Clarke has already seized the PP1 role, which I don't see him relinquishing. Still though, his upside is likely below that of Buium, and perhaps even Parekh. But if choosing between Buium and Parekh, I'm taking Buium, as he has hit the ground running while Parekh has looked lost, and this despite a 79.5% offensive zone starting percentage.

But is Buium a better keep than Clarke? For a win now team, I think he is not. Clarke has the higher floor, plays for a vastly better team, and has more games under his belt. While it might be short term gain, long term pain to keep Clarke over Buium, for a win now team it's a bitter pill that should be swallowed.

Topic #5 – What has this year told us about Matvei Michkov? Is he overhyped, or a victim of a mismatched playing style and coaching philosophy? What are reasonable expectations for him over the next 3-5 years?

Last season, as a rookie wing age 20 or younger who scored 25+ goals and 30+ assists while firing 2.4+ SOG per game, Michkov put together a season that no other rookie winger in NHL history has other, except for a guy named Alexander Ovechkin. Then again, if we look at what Jeff Skinner did as a rookie, it was more goals, nearly as many assists, and more SOG per game, and we know how things ended up for him. I'm not here to say Michkov will be Ovi 2.0; but at the same time it seems premature to say he won't do better than Skinner.

This season most certainly has been one to forget for Michkov, whose conditioning has been called into question and who's clearly in Rick Tocchet's doghouse. Still, Michkov has not lined up alongside top players like he did last season, which is a good news bad news situation. Good in that we can't know if he'd thrive if given the same deployment as last season and the fact his 5×5 team SH% is still as high as last season, but bad in that his IPPs are actually down, whereas due to him playing with inferior players one would expect them to have risen. But with his team SH% stable, scoring is still happening with Michkov on the ice.

Also, I can't expect the current situation to continue indefinitely, meaning Tocchet and Michkov trying to coexist. What that means is either Michkov gets a fresh start elsewhere, or the team brings in a new coach, who presumably would look upon Michkov more favorably.

As far as the effects of this season on Michkov's trajectory, I do think it's more difficult to see him being a point per game player in the near term. But we also have to remember that he put up those stats last season despite playing just 16:41 per game, with him having a higher points per 60 minutes than, among others, Macklin Celebrini, Wyatt Johnston, Matt Boldy, Dylan Larkin and Nico Hischier. What do all of them have in common? By the end of this season each will have had at least one point per game campaign.

As for my specific prediction, if Tocchet is gone by the end of 2026-27, or Michkov is traded, I can see Michkov hitting 70+ points more times than not in the next five seasons, with a better chance of reaching 80 than falling below 60. If neither of those things comes to fruition though, then expectations will need to be tempered, not to the point where Michkov's career should be irreparably affected in a negative way, but enough such that he will be unlikely to reach 70 points and perhaps again fall short of 60 for each season they're stuck together.

Topic #6 – It took some time, but Marco Rossi is nearly a point per game player for Vancouver over the last few weeks. But even with that having happened, he's only up to a 60-point scoring pace. Is he just a 60-point player, or is there hope for better, if not soon then eventually?

Rossi has indeed produced well of late, not just in terms of points but PPPts and cementing a spot on PP1. For the first time, he's on a team that "needs" him more than he needs them. By that I mean in Minnesota there were other offensive weapons, whereas on Vancouver he's for sure a top-six center and PP1 caliber player. But will that translate to production better than what we're seeing now?

Rossi has yet to have an overall IPP above 66.7%, and in fact this season it's at 60.8%, which is a three-season low. But at the same time the team's SH% at 5×5 with him on the ice is 10.4%, which is quite decent, and suggests he's helping create offense. That is a good sign, especially since it was lower when on the Wild and surrounded by more elite players. Is he someone like Alexis Lafreniere who only begins to truly succeed when he is no longer being carried by other more talented players? Quite possibly.

But I am troubled by his lack of SOG. Yes, players like Joe Thornton and Henrik Sedin had HOF careers despite being very selective shooters, so success can occur. But it's not helping him, nor is his height, which, for a center, you have to go back to Daniel Briere and Derek Roy to find any instances of those as short or shorter than him who thrived in fantasy. And guess what – both of them shot the puck far more than Rossi. Instead, Rossi seems to be following in the footsteps of David Desharnais, who had a couple of seasons of mild success despite being very short and not shooting very much, but then fizzled. It's discouraging when the only example of success from those playing the same position are tough to liken to you other than – lack of – height.

Still, past comparables are not always future predictors. Also, Rossi has yet to hit his small player 400-game breakout threshold. We can reserve judgment; however, I'm not looking for an excuse to get him for my teams, or, if I have him already, I'm not expecting him to continue to thrive on a going forward basis as he has the past few weeks.

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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Pascal Dupuis

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.