Alex Lyon got the start again for Buffalo, and without him this year they don't get nearly this far. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonnen has been the better goalie more often this year, but Lyon is the one in the crease with the season coming down to the wire. He is signed next year as well at a bargain $1.5 million Cap Hit, and he's probably going to get the next start too even though UPL has the big contract.

Viktor Arvidsson missed the game for the Bruins, who trotted out a completely new set of lines from game four. Here were the lines:

Elias Lindholm scored the only goal for the Bruins, it was only his second point of the series (both goals). He hasn't thrived with the Bruins, and as he turns 32 late this year, that's unlikely to change.

David Pastrnak scored the OT winner while Jeremy Swayman made 25 saves to keep the Bruins alive.  

Rasmus Dahlin scored his first of the postseason, notching a power play marker. Tage Thompson (five points through five games now) and Jason Zucker (one point) picked up the assists.

Noah Ostlund left the game after only three minutes of ice time for the Sabres, who are already dealing with injuries at centre.

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Minnesota and Dallas were at opposite ends of the injury news spectrum last night, with the Wild getting both Mats Zuccarello and Yakov Trenin back, while Roope Hintz and Nils Lundqvist were ruled out for Dallas. On top of that, third-line centre Arttu Hyry left the game in the second period and it was noted at that point that he would not return.

To rub salt in the wound, Zuccarello scored the opening goal of the game less than four minutes in, on a Tyler Myers turnover. Remind me why the Stars traded for him?

Miro Heiskanen and Matt Boldy traded power play goals earlier in the game, and then late in the game Michael McCarron and Jason Robertson traded even strength markers before Kirill Kaprizov put the puck in the empty net to ice game five. Minnesota now heads home up 3-2, with a chance to get a short bit of rest before taking on Colorado.

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With Connor McDavid surprisingly missing practice and then being labeled a game-time call ahead of game five, it added some new context that McDavid is managing some sort of ankle injury. We don't know when it initially happened, or any of the progress, but it could account for the lack of scoring and explosiveness we have seen from him to this point in the series if it has been nagging for a week or more.

Coming into last night's game, McDavid had four points, with all of them coming in the previous two games. Notably, his ice time dropped from at least 23:50 per game in the first three, to under 20 minutes in game four.

Considering McDavid wasn't rested to close out the regular season, finishing the season with 10 points in his final four games, and 20 pts in his final 10 games, it's unlikely this injury has been hanging around for a while. Ultimately, McDavid did play, and he was part of the Oilers jumping out to a three-goal lead, chasing Lukas Dostal from the net early. McDavid had two assists, for his third-straight two-point game. Leon Draisaitl (two goals) and Evan Bouchard (three assists) did the heavier lifting. Edmonton takes the 4-1 and pushes the series to game six on Thursday.

In net for the Oilers, Tristan Jarry got one shot to be Edmonton's playoff goalie as the starter in game four, but he blew it, and the Oilers turned back to Connor Ingram with their season on the line. I have been a fan of Ingram's for a while now, and I'm glad he has been able to overcome so many hurdles and personal battles to get to the point of being a starting goalie. He did his part in the first period, but first periods haven't been the issue for the Oilers through the first four games. Ingram made 29 saves on 30 shots in the win.

Only Alex Killorn for the Ducks managed to get one past him. That was Killorn's third goal and sixth point of the playoffs, after putting up only 15 goals and 33 points in the regular season. He turns 37 before next season starts, and has been trending down for a few years now. The scoring spike playing with these skilled youngsters is nice to see though.

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I'll update with the game notes for the second and third period (and any further bonus time) from the EDM/ANA sometime this morning.

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I wanted to look into some players who saw their numbers drop in 2025-26, and see if we could deduce whether these players are in for a bounce-back in 2026-27, or whether it's a sign of an inevitable decline.

Roope Hintz

After putting up a point-per-game scoring rate across three seasons from 2020-2023, the next three seasons have seen Hintz average a 70-point pace instead. He is going to be turning 30 this fall, and one does have to wonder if his ceiling is now 75 points. This past season, Hintz began the campaign as a point-per-game player once again, with 16 points in 16 Q1 games. He tailed off a little before losing the back end of the season to injury.

Interestingly, Tyler Seguin's injury corresponds to right about where Hintz tailed off, and Seguin was Hintz's second-most common linemate at the time. It's tough to pin Hintz's point-per-game hopes on a 35-year old Seguin who just missed two-thirds of a season, but another hot start from Hintz alongside Seguin would point to just that. He might be someone to sell-high on early next year, assuming Hintz himself is healthy enough at the time.

One other marker to note, is that Hintz's OZ start percentage was hovering around 60% for the three peak years in his career, but have been trending down and hit 45% this past season. That has likely had a big impact on the scoring numbers as well. The timing lines up with when Matt Duchene joined the Stars, and needed to be more sheltered than Hintz. Something else to keep an eye on.

Carter Verhaeghe

Verhaeghe peaked with two seasons above 70 points, but has been back down in the 50s for the previous two. After being stapled alongside Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett for his peak seasons, the biggest change in over the last two years has been his linemates. He has seen time with Aleksander Barkov, and then more recently while both Barkov and Tkachuk were shelved, Verhaeghe played with Bennett and Brad Marchand, where his shot rate cratered.

The good news for the 30-year-old Verhaeghe is that since Tkachuk's return after the Olympic break, they were reunited with Bennett and finished the season strong – Verhaeghe had his beast stretch of the year with 12 points in his final 16 games playing with Tkachuk, and his shot rate ticked back up a bit too, though it was still below the 3.0 mark where he was in his 70-point seasons.

I would treat Verhaeghe as a 60-point player going into drafts next year, as a full season with a rested Bennett and Tkachuk should provide value, but it's likely not worth drafting/acquiring him and expecting him to provide value at the cost of a 70-point player.

Sam Reinhart

Sticking in Florida, I'm less worried about Sam Reinhart returning at least to his 80-point ways (though the 57-goal season two years ago is something he's not coming close to again). With common linemate Aleksander Barkov returning in the fall, Reinhart should be able to regain his usual form on Barkov's right side.

One funny stat though, is that Reinhart's faceoff numbers hit a six-year-low for faceoffs taken, despite Barkov not being in the lineup and eating up his usual heavy burden.

Alexander Ovechkin

It seems ridiculous to put a 40-year-old on a list like this, and while we know there has been some decline from Ovie from where he was in his prime, he still puts up incredible numbers. On top of that, everyone is going to want to know what to expect of him next year. Diving into his historical numbers and underlying stats, this season's 64-point pace seems entirely repeatable. Scoring at his career average shooting percentage of 13.2% on 210 shots next year (career-low 2.8 shots per game across 75 games) would be 28 goals, to go with 29 assists (keeping last year's .39 assists per game mark for 75 games), then that's above a 60-point pace over a full season. Assuming Ovie returns, then projecting a 60-point player with 210 shots, 20 PPPs, and 120 Hits sounds about right for another kick at the can from an all-time great.

Jesper Bratt

After two seasons over a point-per-game, Bratt dropping back to being a low-70s scorer was a disappointing development. The Devils overall were a disappointment on offence, which should hopefully rebound naturally next year, especially with some better health from Jack Hughes. The good news is for Bratt, is that the Devils' lack of ability to score with him on the ice is corrected with some positive regression. If the only underlying number that changes from last season to next season for Bratt is that the team's 5on5 shooting percentage with Bratt on the ice increases from an incredibly low 7.4% to an NHL average of about 10.0%, then Bratt's scoring pace immediately jumps to 84 points. If Bratt's ice time or shot rate tick back up a little as well, then we're looking at an 85-point season, to go with around 100 Hits from a winger who may fall outside of the top 75 in drafts next season. He's likely going to end up on a lot of my squads next year.

A few other quick hits on possible rebounds:

–J.T. Miller's first half was terrible, but his second half was the fantastic player he has been the previous four seasons. He's a point-per-game player and his 64-point pace from last season is going to disguise that.

–Josh Morrissey has seen his scoring rate decline for three straight seasons, and this was despite being lucky at even strength last season. Beware expecting anything over 50 points next season.

–Jordan Kyrou is much more than a 50-point player, but I'm not sure he can hit 75 again without a perfect situation. I would be drafting for 60+ next year, and anything extra is gravy.

–Matvei Michkov is going to hit his breakout threshold halfway through next season, and despite the step back this year, the healthy scratch in the playoffs should light a fire under him for a productive offseason.

-Barring a trade, I'm not holding out hope on Elias Pettersson jumping back up above the 65-point threshold until the Canucks start to turn their team around, which is still many years away.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.