Ramblings: Helenius Debuts in Buffalo’s Game Four Win; Intriguing Free Agent Contract Projections; New Deals for Coyle and Jankowski & More (May 13)

Alexander MacLean

2026-05-13

Konsta Helenius made his NHL playoff debut for the Sabres, while Luke Schenn entered the lineup, and the goalie cycle moved back to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.

Helenius played third-line minutes, won two-thirds of his draws, and provided a bit of a spark to the lineup too. The top players provided some mixed results, with a few bad penalties, but they also were the ones putting up the most points. Zach Benson scored his fourth goal of the playoffs, while Tage Thompson added a blooper goal and an assist. Josh Doan picked up two assists (instead of scoring like I needed him to for my Tim's Picks).  

TAGE THOMPSON SCORES A WILD ONE 😱😱😱This game is tied! #StanleyCup🇺🇸: /espn🇨🇦: /Sportsnet & /TVASports

— NHL (Bot) (@notnhl.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T00:56:08.664674Z

Alex Newhook continued his fantastic run of late, scoring his sixth goal in the last five games. After posting only one assist through the first six games of the Tampa series, Newhook's scoring binge has been a welcome wind in the sail for the Canadiens. Newhook is a streaky player who seems to top out around a 50-point pace, and it would be expected to see him alternate a couple of hot and cold stretches for however many games the Habs have left in this year's playoffs.

In the end, the Habs fell just short, and the Sabres bring the series back home with it now being a best of three. Luukkonen was just as good as he needed to be, with two goals against on 30 shots. Dobes would love to have the Thompson "goal" back, as one of three he let in on 22 shots against.

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Mark Stone was absent from the lineup for game five, so Pavel Dorofeyev stepped up, scoring two goals including the OT winner to give Vegas a 3-2 edge in both last night’s game and the series. 

Tomas Hertl had a goal and an assist for the Golden Knights, while Jack Eichel recorded two assists. This was Hertl’s most productive game of the playoffs. He has been useful for Vegas, but the scoring has really dropped off. He has paced for under 60 points in two of the last three regular seasons, and with a slow playoff run as well it’s looking as though a 32-years-old that 60 points might be his new ceiling. 

Cutter Gauthier and Mason McTavish (more on him in today’s Forum Buzz article from Rick) both picked up two assists in the loss, firing a combing 10 shots. 

Jackson Lacombe played over 30 minutes, while Ryan Poehling played less than three after leaving the game early on a hit from Brayden McNabb that was deemed a major. 

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Flyers announce forward Owen Tippett missed the second round of the playoffs vs. the Hurricanes because of an internal bleeding issue.

— NHLAdamK (@nhladamk.bsky.social) 2026-05-12T13:09:52.987Z

All the best to Owen Tippett in his recovery, and hopefully he's able to make a full return to health in time for training camp in the fall.

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Charlie McAvoy was suspended six games for his slash on Zach Benson. He will serve those at the beginning of the 2026-27 season. Luckily for him, next season will feature the extension to 84 games, so he can still hit 78 games played if he’s healthy, which would tie his career high.

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Charlie Coyle got signed to a six-year deal with a $6 Million cap hit, which sounds crazy at first, but the cap hit is exactly what we should be expecting for players that can shift between the second and third line, especially with term as the later years they will be closer to third-line money. In Coyle's case, he is 34, so it's certainly a risk getting him for that long.

On that note, I'm working on my contract projections for the upcoming summer silly season, and there are some fascinating cases to look into. Let me walk you through a few of the more interesting negotiations we will see this summer.

Darren Raddysh (D), Tampa Bay Lightning

Projected 2026-27 Cap Hit: $6,860,000

The big blueliner had one of the biggest late breakouts we have ever seen at the NHL level, and it's just in time for him to possibly increase his annual pay eight-fold. Everyone has an opinion on how legit his breakout is, and to some extent having produced at a point-per-game rate for half of a season shows that there should be some higher production floor associated, but he's a hard player to project moving forward. Will he be able to keep up the point-per-game scoring with Tampa, or even somewhere else? Will the minutes drop off, or will the luck finally run out?

The underlying numbers show that he was lucky this past year, but not to the extent that we should expect him to drop back to the 40-point threshold while also being the occasional healthy scratch again. This time around he should have the big contract and be a staple in the lineup. A 55-point pace is how I would start to evaluate him, putting him into a similar range as Josh Morrissey, Seth Jones, and Filip Hronek. Hronek signed his deal most recently of that bunch, and he was given an eight-year deal at $7.25 million per year. Hronek had more of a track record at the time, but didn't reach the same height that Raddysh did, plus the cap was lower. It's a reasonable comparable at this point, and maybe the best we'll get for Raddysh and his unicorn season.  

Connor Bedard (C), Chicago Blackhawks

Projected 2026-27 Cap Hit: $11,175,000

After a breakout year that was overshadowed by another rising superstar, the Blackhawks will have to sort out what their internal limit is of what they're willing to give their franchise player, as this will set the bar for all those getting re-signed in later years, including Anton Frondell, Roman Kantserov, Artyom Levshunov, and more. On that note, Kantserov might be crossing the pond very soon, and with Chicago’s AHL affiliate still playing in the Calder Cup, it’s possible we see his North American debut this month.

Roman Kantserov, top KHL scorer and Chicago #Blackhawks prospect, has terminated his KHL contract, per Metallurg.He has been in discussions with Chicago to get an ELC signed

— Dobber (@dobberhockey.bsky.social) 2026-05-12T22:22:17.913Z

Getting Bedard signed for the next eight years while making less than the William Nylander/David Pastrnak tier seems a little unlikely, but it should be at least eight figures, and will need to be low enough that the rest of the team can fall in behind it like we have seen with successful internal growth from Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay over the last few years, with the team cap being set by the superstar.

Jason Robertson (LW), Dallas Stars

Projected 2026-27 Cap Hit: $13,250,000

After being on one of the best bargain contracts in hockey for the last four years, and carrying a large part of the offence for Dallas in spite of that, Robertson is up for a big pay bump. His best comparable is Mikko Rantanen's recent $12 Million cap hit, signed last summer. This past season Robertson scored at a nearly identical rate to Rantanen, and put up much better defensive numbers to boot, despite starting more often in the defensive zone.

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Dallas will be fairly cap strapped, so this one might take a little while to get done, but expect it to come in at least above Rantanen's $12 Million mark.

Pavel Dorofeyev (RW), Vegas Golden Knights

Projected 2026-27 Cap Hit: $5,800,000

The Golden Knights two summers ago elected to bridge Pavel Dorofeyev, and they are paying the price now. Dorofeyev has made steady progress, moving from a 42-point pace two years ago, and on to his most recent 52- and 64-point seasons. His third-quarter was especially strong for some reason, scoring 22 points in 23 games, with the most notable linemate change being the addition of Reilly Smith to his line. Under the surface though, that pushed Mitch Marner from the opposite wing to centre, where it might just be a better connection between the two.

Regardless, this feels like one of those situations where Dorofeyev could get a long-term deal along the lines of an $8 Million cap hit over eight years, or be signed for four more years at $5.5 Million before cashing in again before the age of 30. Vegas' tight cap situation could push the club to look more at the latter shorter term option here.

Jordan Spence (D), Ottawa Senators

Projected 2026-27 Cap Hit: $5,640,000

Spence might be one of the most underrated players in the league, and that includes by the Ottawa coaches, who really underutilized him until the final quarter of the season when he was about the only healthy NHL-level defenceman left for the Senators. Lo-and-behold, he was playing a heavy 22 minutes a night, and put up a 50-point pace in those games.

There's a thread here from earlier in the season when he was being stunted down the depth chart (and even into the press box), which goes over all the underlying numbers and what makes Spence a very effective defenceman. Now, because Ottawa doesn't appear to appreciate that, does it mean they also present him contract offers that don't take into account those underlying numbers either, potentially causing a rift between the team and player? Time will tell.

Here's a thread of some scattered thoughts about Jordan Spence, first star of last night's Ottawa win over Utah. He is a very good and very unusual player, which is to say: my favourite kind of player.

— Micah McCurdy (@hockeyviz.com) 2025-11-10T18:27:23.091Z

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On the topic of new contracts, though this one a little further down the depth chart, the Carolina Hurricanes and Mark Jankowski agreed to a new contract on Monday, making the most of the long downtime they have between series. The deal is a two-year pact with a cap hit of $1.825 Million

The signing is an interesting one, because if we assume that Jesperi Kotkaniemi isn't back with the team (via cap dump or buyout) then this still gives the Hurricanes a returning 12 forwards under contract for at least the next two seasons. That would be great, except for the fact that impacts their top prospect Bradley Nadeau. Nadeau is someone dynasty managers are well aware of, and his offensive upside is extremely high, as evidenced by his 114 points in 116 AHL games across his age 19 and 20 seasons.

This led me to looking into what kind of needs the Hurricanes actually do need to address in the offseason. The short answer is that they don't have much. They're full up front, and assuming Alexander Nikishin is re-signed for $7 Million on a long-term deal, then they would have $9 Million to fill out one or two spots in the press box. This is again assuming Kotkaniemi's buyout prior to his 25th birthday, as it's less than 900K on the books moving forward (for eight season though).

With Frederik Andersen off the books, some certainty in net next year might be nice, and while the bet on Brandon Bussi and Pyotr Kochetkov is a cheap one, neither one has a very long track record of success at the NHL level. That leads me to speculate that Connor Hellebuyck is going to end up in Carolina, perhaps for a package that includes Nadeau, Kochetkov, Carolina's 2026 first, and another prospect.

Now, big trades like that aren't all too common, and the Canes could instead go in many different directions, but they are set up to go big-fish hunting, and Hellebuyck fills the biggest need while also being realistically available.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.

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