Although a team still hasn't hoisted the Stanley Cup, many poolies have turned their attention to the 2026-27 season. Normally that includes rampant speculation as to where UFAs will sign, and for how much, leading me to run my annual poll on UFA disappointments. Although there remain some fantasy-relevant players set to become UFAs, things are bit different this year, as many impactful UFAs-to-be signed deals before hitting the market, such that I can't put together a proper list of 20 UFAs-to-be.

What does that mean? The poll is still happening, but the list of 20 skaters includes 11 who, as I write this, still remain set to become UFAs this summer, but also nine who were due to become UFAs but inked extensions sometime after 2025-26 training camp opened. The question is the same for both categories – which will be the biggest disappointments?

How, though, should you assess/measure disappointment? For starters, assume points only, meaning no bonus for a player's real-world value or leadership on or off the ice, nor for those who score lots of goals or PPPts or are great in banger categories. Points only, period. Disappointment is a relative term in two ways. First, it's based on cap hit; and thus the larger a player's cap hit is (in the case of those who already signed their deals) or figures to be (for those yet to sign), the easier it is for him to be seen as a disappointment. Also, it's relative in that you're to judge these players in a vacuum, meaning solely among the 20 choices. Or to put it another way, I'm asking you to vote for the five among the 20 you believe will disappoint the most as compared to the rest of the 20.

Also, when casting votes, focus solely on how they'll fare in 2026-27, not over the lifetime of their contract. Even if you're confident a player's deal will age poorly, do not factor that into deciding your votes. It's solely about what their cap hit is – or is predicted to be – in 2026-27 versus how you think they'll actually perform next season.

But how can you account for not knowing either the team or the cap hit for the 11 UFAs-to-be? For the team, we're in the dark; however, you can look here for cap hit estimates. When you see that list, you'll realize why I opted to only pick 11 as voting choices, since it's likely quite a few will end up disappointing. So no defensive d-men like Mario Ferraro, Jacob Trouba, and Andrew Peeke, whose values doesn't translate to points, but also no forwards I fear would get votes from nearly everyone, like Michael Bunting, Jaden Schwartz, and Boone Jenner. Patrik Laine isn't a choice either since there's no projected salary for him; and as far as the players who've already signed, I didn't include Connor McDavid, since I couldn't see a universe where his extremely team-friendly deal would earn him a single vote. Lastly, there's no one who's projected to make under $4.0M, since it'd be too difficult – on a relative basis – to envision anyone who's paid that low actually disappointing enough to get votes.

With all these things in mind, here is the list of the 11 UFA-to-be skaters and the nine who were UFAs to be but already signed after the start of training camp for 2025-26. They are listed in alphabetical order and with either their cap hit projection from the link above (for the 11 UFAs-to-be), or their actual cap hit for 2026-27 (for the nine who signed extensions after 2025-26 training camps started). To make it easier to distinguish between them, those who are already signed have an asterisk in front of their name. Your job is to vote for the five of the 20 you think will end up being the worst values, relative to the others, focusing solely on 2026-27 performance in points only leagues and their cap hit. A link to cast your votes will be at the end of the column. 

Rasmus Andersson ($9.0M)

If Andersson was hoping he'd help pad his wallet by being dealt to Vegas, that hasn't happened. Yes, he ended the regular season with ten points in 11 games despite the Knights giving him PP scraps; but in the playoffs he's been virtually invisible. Plus, when John Tortorella opted to put a defenseman back on PP1, rather than using five forwards as Vegas did for most of the regular season, it was Shea Theodore who was tapped, not Andersson. It's also concerning that after seeing his scoring rate shrink for two straight seasons, Andersson majorly rebounded on the cusp of being a UFA. How he does might depend largely on where he signs, but if it's indeed for $9.0M he might have trouble performing up to expectations on any team.

Viktor Arvidsson ($4.2M)

After scoring at a paltry 33-point rate in 2024-25 on Edmonton, many felt Arvidsson's days of fantasy relevance were over. But he proceeded to produce at a 64-point rate for the Bs this season; and let's not forget he had a three season stretch of a 60- to 70-point scoring rate before that disaster of a 2024-25 campaign. Now at age 33, which Arvidsson will we see in 2026-27? If it's the 2024-25 version, then even if he's only paid $4.2M, he could still severely disappoint.

Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5.5M)

Now 31, and having seen his scoring rate crater over the past two years, there's rightful concern as to whether Bjorkstrand still can produce. In fairness to him, his minutes were way down and his SH% this season was unsustainably low. But on a new team, with a fresh start, maybe he can return to the form that saw him score at a 58- to 64-point rate in four of five seasons. On the other hand though, he was being paid $5.4M this season, and that didn't cause Tampa to feel like it had to play him, so maybe the same thing happens on his new team?

John Carlson ($6.1M)

After seemingly settling into a scoring rate in the low to mid-50s, Carlson was revitalized for the 2025-26 campaign, and even managed to displace Jackson LaCombe from PP1 upon arriving in Anaheim at the deadline. But Carlson was deemphasized in the playoffs, and it showed in the form of a lower scoring rate. Still, if he becomes the next Brent Burns ageless wonder, he'd be unlikely to disappoint.

*Kyle Connor ($12.0M)

Those who might've been concerned Connor's rise back to a 90+ point scoring rate in 2024-25 would be a one hit wonder like it was in 2021-22 turned out to be worrying for naught, as his scoring rate remained north of 90 for 2025-26. Although he's in his prime, the same can't be said for Mark Scheifele, who set by far a career high in points, making it unclear if Connor can keep his scoring pace above 90, which it would need to be to justify a $12M cap hit.

*Charlie Coyle ($6M)

Despite logging his 1000th career game this season and turning 34 in March, Coyle thrived for the Blue Jackets once he was put on a scoring line, with 22 points in 21 third quarter games. He then fell to only 11 points in 21 fourth quarter games. Still, it translated to a 58 point pace for the season, after producing at a 60 point pace for the Bs in 2023-24. He seemed to have proven himself enough to Columbus, as they opted to extend him for six years for a figure which, if he consistently plays in the top six or at even middle six plus gets some PP time, should not be a recipe for disappointment, although at his age you never know.

Jack Eichel ($13.5M)

After a couple of solid but unspectacular seasons upon arriving in Las Vegas, Eichel had a scoring rate of 100 points in 2025-26 after also doing so in 2024-25. Although he actually produced at a higher rate even after the arrival of John Tortorella, and has been superb in the playoffs, Torts is a coach who in the past has led to the likes of the Sedins and Artemi Panarin – more on him below – having among their worst seasons. If Eichel drops back to a scoring rate below 90, this would be a very disappointing cap hit.

*Cam Fowler ($6.5M)

After Philip Broberg inked a six-year extension paying him $8M per season, many presumed the now 34-year-old Fowler would be deemphasized. But instead, he was extended at $6.5M per season, which is not stratospheric but still seemingly high under the circumstances. With Fowler having posted his worst scoring rate in 2025-26 since becoming a full time NHLer, this has the potential to be a bad signing, leading to fantasy disappointment.

*Kirill Kaprizov ($17.0M)

Minnesota opened its wallets to keep Kaprizov, making him by far the highest paid player in the entire NHL for 2026-27, only to see his scoring rate drop from 112 to 97 in 2025-26. It's hard to fault him since he didn't have a top-tier center, although in truth that had been the case in prior seasons, so it's possible he might not be as great as advertised. With the bar set so high due to Kaprizov's cap hit, the potential for major disappointment is definitely there.

*Adrian Kempe ($10.6M)

For a while it seemed Kempe didn't get the credit he deserved. Then he was nearly a point-per-game player in 2023-24, raising expectations, which he has since not met, although it's not like he's slumped majorly. Still, while $10.6M is not stratospheric, if he finishes again with a scoring rate only in the mid 70s, he will not have come close to justifying that price tag.

Anders Lee ($6.4M)

Yes, he'll be 36 before the start of next season; however, Lee looked solid in 2024-25 before he was deemphasized this season. On a new team he should get a chance to once again regain a foothold in the top six and, most likely, on PP1. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean he'll do well; and if he once again posts only a point per every other game, that definitely would be a significant disappointment.

Evgeni Malkin ($6.7M)

True to form, the soon-to-be 40 (!) year old Malkin missed a chunk of 2025-26; but when he played, he thrived. Plus, his actual age might be 40 but his legs likely feel much younger. Still, if he signs with a new team, there is a risk he turns into the latest future hall of famer, ala Mats Sundin, Mike Modano, and Daniel Alfredsson, to leave teams where they'd spent their long careers and join a new one only to fall flat.

Mason Marchment ($5.3M)

Although he's now a certified band-aid boy, and has never been an offensive focal point for any team, Marchment has produced wherever he's gone and should do more of the same on his new team. If indeed he only makes $5.3M per season, it'd be tough to see him as a major risk to disappoint.

*Martin Necas ($11.5M)

After storming out of the gates to lead the entire NHL in scoring after Q1 in 2024-25, Necas came back to earth in a big way, and didn't thrive upon arrival in Colorado. But despite a very fat wallet thanks to his extension, he had major success in 2025-26. Suffice it to say, if he can replicate that success, or even does a bit worse, his salary will be well justified.

Alex Ovechkin ($9.0M)

Of course this assumes he opts to continue his NHL career, perhaps to make a run at 1000 goals, rather than finishing it in Russia ala Pavel Datsyuk. Given we're judging on points only, and Ovi had only 44 points in his last 61 games, he would be at risk for disappointment.

*Artemi Panarin ($11.0M)

Once among the most productive and consistent top scorers in the NHL, the question is whether his drops in production over the last two seasons were due to the Rangers faltering, or Panarin no longer being quite as elite. He didn't set the world on fire upon arrival in LA, making him among the bigger risks for disappointment.

Darren Raddysh ($5.3M)

Does he only sign for this little despite 70 points in 73 games? If so, it would take among the steepest drop-offs in production for him to not justify his salary, let alone come close to being seen as a disappointment. But maybe a team covets him and opens their wallet to pay him even more, or he proves to be a one year wonder, in which case(s) disappointment could arise.

Jack Roslovic ($4.4M)

Now nearly 30, Roslovic seems to have made a career of being always good but never great. Him being a UFA when the pool is so shallow should lead to him being paid this much, if not even more, which would be a high for him and, with that, a possible recipe for disappointment.

*Nick Schmaltz ($8M)

For a while it was thought Schmaltz was in a major role only until Logan Cooley and Barret Hayton rounded into form. Although Cooley looks to be on track, Hayton is seemingly a bust, allowing Schmaltz to remain on a scoring line, where he's thrived with added talent around him. In today's NHL $8M is not nearly as much as it once was. Still, this is a player who's never had an 80-point scoring rate, is on the other side of 30, and had injury issues in the past.

Alex Tuch ($10.6M)

With all those who've signed, Tuch is seen as the UFA prize, and the only remaining player projected to have a cap hit north of $10M. After a point per game season in the same campaign Tage Thompson exploded, and not producing at even a 70-point rate in any of the next three seasons, including 2025-26, Tuch will need to do better to not fall short of what will be lofty expectations.

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There are your choices, 11 UFAs-to-be and nine who already inked extensions. Reread the guidance above for determining your votes, but in short you're voting for the five who'll be the biggest disappointments in a points only format based on their cap hits and relative to the other choices, plus when factoring only their performance for 2026-27. Click here to cast your votes.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

I plan to run more mailbags between now and the start of 2026-27 so please send me your questions. To get them me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.