For the last few weeks, we've been reviewing peripheral contributions across the league, focusing on shots, hits, blocks, and penalty minutes. The last couple of Ramblings alone have covered the top peripheral performers among forwards and then among defencemen. Today, let's start looking at the entire picture and compare the fantasy performances of some players in 2025-26 to fantasy performances from recent history.   

This is how we're going about it:

• All forwards, regardless of centre/winger designation, are listed as forwards. Once fantasy sites update their player positions this summer, we'll adjust by centre/winger, but for now, they're all forwards. All defencemen are listed as defencemen, regardless of handedness.
• We are evaluating things on a per-game basis but limiting our sample to players with at least 41 games played in a season.  
• We find each player's initial fantasy value by comparing each of their stats to the relevant league average at their position, then adding all those individual fantasy value totals together.  
• We determine what a 'replacement level' player is for each season. To do this, we assume 14-team leagues with 10 forwards per team and 3-4 forwards on the bench, and five defencemen per team with one on the bench. That gives us ~187 forwards and ~84 defencemen.
• We take the group of forwards around the 187^th position and the group of defencemen around the 84^th position from each season, then evaluate the average fantasy value of each stat for only those borderline players. That gives us our replacement-level value for each stat.
• Finally, we compare each player's production in each stat to the relevant replacement level. Replacement value will vary depending on league size and players on injured reserve.
• The stats are goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, PIMs, power-play points, and face-off wins.

To summarize, the charts below give us an idea of the value each player brought in each of the eight fantasy stats, for each of the last five seasons, compared to the replacement-level options at their position.  

For most stats, being anywhere from +2 to +3 in relative value is great. Power-play points are different because most players don't accumulate much, especially among defencemen, but for the rest of the stats, anything in that range is at the top end for that season, and anything above +3 is super-elite.

Most of the data is from Evolving Hockey but some of it is from Natural Stat Trick. For today, we're reviewing only forwards

Macklin Celebrini (2025-26) and Nathan MacKinnon (2021-22)

In 2021-22, MacKinnon played just 65 games but remember that the comparative fantasy values are on a per game basis, not per minute or per season. The 2021-22 campaign was the season the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup, and a season where MacKinnon averaged 1.35 points and 4.6 shots per game. That was a different offensive environment than the 2025-26 season we just finished (particularly for shots on goal), but seeing what MacKinnon did then as a 26-year-old, and what Celebrini just did as a 19-year-old, should help put into context just how high Celebrini's upside really is.

It will be fascinating to see how fantasy managers evaluate Celebrini for 2026-27. It is hard to imagine anyone but MacKinnon and Connor McDavid as the consensus top-2 players off the draft board, but is Celebrini third? There may be an argument for Nikita Kucherov because he's a winger and the other three are centres, so in leagues without face-off wins, Kucherov might have an argument in relative value because of his position. In leagues with face-off wins, it would be hard to argue with someone who has Celebrini third overall given what he just did and the fact he doesn't turn 20 years old until later this month.

MacKinnon followed up 2021-22 by improving his goals per game (+20%), assists per game (+13%), shots per game (+12%), power-play points per game (+13%), and face-off wins per game (+24%). He was an older player on a better team, but can Celebrini come close to those kinds of improvements in his third season? Let's see what the San Jose Sharks do with their roster this summer, but the sky is truly the limit for the young superstar.  

Aleksander Barkov (2024-25) and Nick Suzuki (2025-26)

Back in May, Suzuki was named one of the finalists for the Selke Trophy. He is guaranteed his first top-3 Selke finish in his age-26 season, or one year later than Barkov's first top-3 Selke finish (the 2021 Bubble season, and Barkov won it). That Suzuki achieved this feat so close to when Barkov did, in a season where Barkov missed the entire campaign due to injury, is part of what makes this comparison fun.

It also highlights just how good a fantasy option Suzuki was in 2025-26. Compared to Barkov's 2024-25 campaign, Suzuki out-performed in six of the eight categories on a per-game basis. The only area where Suzuki was demonstrably better was in power-play production, as Suzuki's 43 PP points were second in the league only to McDavid, where Barkov's 82-game pace in 2024-25 was for 34 power-play points. Other than that, they had very similar campaigns.

The question is if Suzuki can replicate this performance. Putting up 43 PP points is a very high number. We see guys like Kucherov and McDavid in that range with regularity, but players that aren't among the super-elite and have big PP point seasons can regress pretty hard – Artemi Panarin had 44 PPPs in 2023-24 and fell to 26 the next season; Clayton Keller had 37 PPPs in 2024-25 and fell to 27 this past campaign. If Suzuki loses 10-15 PPPs, it'll hurt his fantasy value significantly because it will also reduce stats like goals and assists. Regardless, it was a fantastic season from Montreal's captain and might be enough to push him into that elite-but-not-super-elite tier of players.

Nikita Kucherov (2023-24) and Vincent Trocheck (2025-26)

The 2023-24 campaign saw Kucherov become just the fourth player in league history to post 100 assists (Wayne Gretzky did it 11 times, McDavid did it eh same season, and Mario Lemieux did it back in 1988-89). That season also saw Kucherov finish with 44 goals and 306 shots, making him the first player since 1988-89 to post 40+ goals, 100+ assists, and 300+ shots in a single season (per Hockey Reference). And yet, despite all that, on a per-game basis, Kucherov's fantasy value in 2023-24 was very similar to Vincent Trocheck's fantasy value in 2025-26.

This is the magic of multi-cat leagues. As we see in the chart, Kucherov had a monster edge in PP points per game, and sizeable edges in goals, assists, and shots per game. However, Trocheck had demonstrably higher rates of blocks and PIMs per game with much, much larger rates of hits and face-off wins per game. Kucherov was the way better point producer, Trocheck was the way better peripheral producer, and it made them players of similar values.

Of course, this is where league format comes into play. If your league doesn't count PIMs or face-off wins, Kucherov's 2023-24 campaign was decidedly better. But it does highlight that in multi-cat formats, Trocheck's 2025-26 season may go overlooked because he missed 15 games on a bad team.  

Mikko Rantanen (2022-23) and Sidney Crosby (2025-26)

Over the last five seasons, just four players have tallied 50+ goals, 50+ assists, and 300+ shots in a single campaign: MacKinnon (x2), and each of David Pastrnak, McDavid, and Rantanen accomplished this feat in 2022-23. Despite Rantanen reaching those marks, his season's relative fantasy value was similar to Crosby's 2025-26 campaign, and the chart shows why.

Rantanen had a notable edge in 5/8 stats. Crosby has a small edge in hits and blocks per game. The eighth stat – face-off wins – has Crosby way out in front. That massive edge is what brings them to similar fantasy values for their respective seasons.

In 2025-26, there were 49 forwards who played at least 41 games and averaged at least 0.4 goals and 0.6 assists per game. That isn't a special level to achieve, but of those 49 forwards, Crosby led the way with 11.4 face-off wins per game. That was nearly 7% higher than the closest player, 13% higher than the average of the next four closest players, and 272% higher than the average of the other 48 forwards. Being able to dominate in one category is what makes Crosby's 2025-26 season comparable to what Rantanen did in 2022-23.

The flipside here is that if you're in a head-to-head league, or a roto league, there are diminishing returns. Whether you win that fantasy category by one face-off or 100 face-offs, the value is the same. Crosby's face-off value only matters if you're fighting for positioning in that fantasy category, not if you have a big lead. The same goes for players who are monster contributors other areas, so being able to dominate is nice, but the actual fantasy value will vary depending on the league format.  

Leon Draisaitl (2025-26) and Connor McDavid (2025-26)

We'll finish on a fun one, just because of what McDavid and Draisaitl have been able to do over the last five seasons: among the 70 forwards with at least 300 points across the last five campaigns, McDavid and Draisaitl are two of three names (along with MacKinnon) to average at least 0.5 goals, 0.75 assists, and 3.0 shots per game in that span. Each provides good-to-great levels of face-off wins, McDavid had two seasons with over a hit per game, MacKinnon had two seasons with over 0.7 blocks per game, and Draisaitl had one season of 76 PIMs. Even if some peripheral totals aren't great, they usually aren't drags, and that matters.

As it relates to the 2025-26 season, we see another instance where one player (McDavid) has a small edge pretty much across the board except for one area where the other player (Draisaitl) has a substantial edge in face-off wins. Again, this highlights how valuable it can be to be dominant in one area, but it also highlights the volatility of Draisaitl's fantasy value. In leagues without FOWs, McDavid was clearly the better fantasy option. But in leagues with FOWs, Draisaitl's 82-game pace was for 44 goals, 78 assists, 235 shots, and 792 FOWs. That would be a huge season, so fantasy managers counting this stat should take note that McDavid's days of 500+ face-off wins might be a thing of the past while Draisaitl has exceeded 600 in each of the last five campaigns.