Ramblings: Leafs Hire Hiller; Evaluating Top Free Agents in Alex Tuch, Bobby McMann, Boone Jenner, and Anthony Mantha – June 18
Michael Clifford
2026-06-18
The 2026 NHL Entry Draft is next Friday, and any fantasy manager looking to read up on the prospects they need to know should grab a copy of Dobber's 2026 Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report! Not only does it cover this year's group of future stars, but it also dives into each team's prospect pool to give fantasy managers an idea of each prospects' expected arrival time, future upside, and a whole lot more. Support the Dobber Prospects team and order this year's edition of the Prospects Report!
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have hired Jim Hiller to be their new head coach. Hiller was last with the Los Angeles Kings and will now be tasked to not only get the Leafs back into the postseason, but to win some playoff rounds. Alex had his take on the hiring here.
As Alex mentions in his write-up on the hiring, Hiller's calling card is stifling defence. That should help the Leafs win some more hockey games, but I'm dubious it's going to help anyone's fantasy value outside of the goaltenders.
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The NHL offseason is now in full swing with the buyout window open, trades brewing, and the Draft just over a week away. Coming up shortly is free agency, set to start in fewer than two weeks. This could have been a star-heavy free agent class, but Jack Eichel, Kyle Connor, Martin Necas, Adrian Kempe, Nick Schmaltz, Kiefer Sherwood, Jake Walman, and Mike Metheson all signed extensions during the season. It doesn't mean there aren't some potential gems left on the board, though, and keeper/dynasty managers may want to scoop them up before the signing happens – the acquisition cost may go up if they land in Florida, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Buffalo, Carolina, or Vegas. Before that happens, this is what fantasy managers need to know about these players.
Player data is from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and All Three Zones. Contract data is from PuckPedia.
Alex Tuch – LW/RW
In three of the last four seasons, Tuch has reached at least 30 goals, 30 assists, 190 shots, 82 blocks, 10 power-play points, and 45 PIMs. He has been one of the better, and more consistent, across-the-board multi-cat fantasy wingers that we've seen in recent memory. As the top free agent winger (and likely just top forward) on the board, he is set to cash in big.
Where Tuch lands will be of interest for two reasons, and they're intertwined. The first reason is that Tuch hasn't been a frequent top PP option in Buffalo recently as Frozen Tools has him with 33.1% of the PPTOI in 2025-26, and 50.1% the year before. Because of that, we should look to see what kind of shooter he's been at 5-on-5 rather than at all strengths. This past season, Tuch was a rush-heavy shooter, with his 60-minute rate being more than 75% above the league-average forward, while his 60-minute rate of shots off the cycle or forecheck being below league average:

That is just one season, but back in 2024-25, relative to a league average forward, Tuch shot off the rush over twice as often as he did off the cycle/forecheck. It is important to mention that because in 2024-25, Buffalo wasn't really a rush-heavy team – their forwards took rush shots about 6% more often than the league-average forward. It is higher, but not extreme, and Tuch was nearly 6x higher than Buffalo's average. In short, Tuch likes to create a lot off the rush, and that can be a high risk/high reward style. Teams have moved away from that style over the last couple of seasons, though the Stanley Cup-winning Carolina Hurricanes leaned more into rush shooting this past year, and this is a league of copycats.
The second reason the lack of PP usage is notable is because it shows what his upside can be. In multi-cat formats without faceoff wins, and on a per-game basis, Tuch was a fringe top-50 fantasy forward this past season. Even if we count faceoff wins, he was a top-85 fantasy forward. The year before, he was between the 40th and 60th forward regardless of counting FOWs. Neither season was elite, but both indicate a pillar of fantasy value in any kind of multi-cat format, and that was with Tuch averaging just 10 PPPs a season. If he posts 20 PPPs, that value with the additional goals/assist it brings means he can push towards a top-25 forward.
They are different players, but we've seen this with Nikolaj Ehlers and Martin Necas. Whenever they got regular top PP time, regardless of the team they were on, they posted their best seasons, and that speaks to what Tuch can do in the right spot. The pay rise will negate any fantasy value increase for those in salary cap formats, but if he can keep his 19-20 minutes a game, his 30-30 seasons, and add more power-play production? Tuch has the ability to be a top-25 fantasy forward.
Bobby McMann – LW
On the topic of rush-heavy shooters, McMann is the same as Tuch. This past season, McMann's shot rate off the rush (36%) was nearly 2x higher than his shot rate off the cycle/forecheck (19%):

As with Tuch, the rate of shots off the rush from McMann far out-stripped what the other forwards on his team did:
- Forwards from the 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs took shots off the rush about 4% more often than the league average forward.
- The 2025-26 Leafs were under 1% above the league average.
- The 2025-26 Seattle Kraken were far below the league average at nearly -20%.
That rush-heavy profile has led to McMann scoring goals at a top-50 rate at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons, averaging 26 total goals every 82 games despite averaging just 15:14 per game. With a consistent shot volume and normal shooting percentage (for him), McMann can absolutely be a 30-goal scorer if he gets 17 minutes a night.
The fact that McMann has averaged 190 shots and 162 hits every 82 games over the last two seasons illuminates the fantasy upside here. He won't rack up the assists, but all fantasy players have holes in their game. As with Tuch, the right landing spot for McMann could very well see him post a career-best season. He showed flashes of that in his brief tenure with Seattle, now it's just a matter of getting that kind of role for six months rather than one.
Boone Jenner – C/LW
It is a wonder what Jenner could do with a full season. He has not reached the 70-game mark since the Covid Bubble season and missed roughly two-thirds of Columbus' regular season games over the last five years. Missing that much time makes him hard for fantasy managers to rely on, but the multi-cat upside remains tantalizing. On a per-game basis last season, he was a fringe top-100 value on a per-game basis in multi-cat formats including FOWs, and that was in a year where he had just three power-play points in 67 games, and his shooting percentage (9.8%) was his worst since 2019-20.
That low shooting percentage, lack of PP production, and drop in overall ice time (16:05 per game was Jenner's lowest of the last nine years) hurt his overall fantasy value, but on a per-game basis, he was still a positive contributor to six of the eight fantasy stats, with only goals and PPPs dragging things down:

A normal shooting percentage would have pushed Jenner over a 20-goal/82-game pace and made him a fringe top-90 forward. Just 10 power-play points would have pushed him to a fringe top-75 forward. This helps illustrate just how close he is to not being just fantasy-relevant in most formats, but a pillar of a multi-cat fantasy roster in anything larger than an 8-team league.
With all that said, it is hard to rely on him. He has a long history of back problems, he has nearly 850 combined regular season and playoff games besides, and he turned 33 years old a few days ago. That combination of injury history and age means we cannot pencil him in for 75 games or whatever. But the upside is there, even if he's only skating 16-17 minutes a game rather than 20+ he was a few years ago.
Anthony Mantha – LW/RW
If we look just at Mantha's regular season, there is probably not a forward in the NHL who recouped more of his value after an injury-plagued 2024-25 campaign – posting your first career 30-goal, 30-assist season as you're going to hit free agency is pretty good timing. Let's hope potential suitors weren't watching the playoffs.
Just like Tuch and McMann, Mantha shot more off the rush than forecheck/cycle in 2025-26, but the volume wasn't nearly as drastic as Tuch was over 75% higher than the league average, McMann was at 36%, but Mantha finished under 16% higher than the average forward:

He didn't always play this way – back in his Washington Capitals days, the trend was reversed, but that he found the most offensive success of his career playing this style should inform teams what they should try to do with him. It also informs how excited we should be about his landing spot, because fantasy managers may be disappointed with Mantha's results if his future team tries to get him playing more off the cycle.
Regardless of the landing spot, we do have to be cautious here. Mantha doesn't bring a lot for peripherals as his fantasy value for shots and PIMs relative to a league-average fantasy forward was roughly league average, he was a big drag in hits, and a small contributor in shots. That was all while skating 15:11 per game, or his highest TOI rate in any of his last five seasons. Negligible peripheral impact makes him very reliant on goals, assists, and power-play points. That he had a career year at 31 years old and is reliant on goals, assists, and PPPs for fantasy value makes him a very volatile player. Maybe he can come close to repeating this performance, but without the cushion of productive peripherals, any kind of drop off can have a severe impact on his overall value. In my eyes, this is a player to trade away, not trade for, this fantasy offseason.