The first round of the 2026 NHL Draft is officially in the books, and as always, reality proved quite different from the mock drafts. Some players climbed. Others fell. Several organizations surprised us with their selections, and a few prospects found themselves in dream development situations.

Rather than recap all 32 selections individually, here are my biggest takeaways from Round 1.

Biggest Surprise

Player: Daxon Rudolph

Expected Range: 6-10

Actual Selection: 4

The surprise wasn’t that Rudolph was selected in the top 10, it was that he came off the board at number four. Rudolph was widely viewed as part of the top defensive tier in this class, with several blueliners grouped closely together behind the elite forward talent. His offensive ceiling is arguably the highest of the group thanks to his dynamic skating, transition play, and ability to create offense from the back end. The question has always been whether his defensive game will mature enough to support a true number one role. Buffalo clearly believes it will. Rudolph still has work to do away from the puck, particularly with his reads and consistency in his own zone, but those are areas that can improve with experience and coaching. The raw tools are all there.

From a fantasy perspective, the landing spot is a bit of a double-edged sword. Rudolph will almost certainly never supplant Rasmus Dahlin as Buffalo’s primary power-play quarterback, which caps his long-term fantasy ceiling. However, his right-handed shot makes him an ideal complement to Dahlin at even strength, and a future top pairing featuring the two could be one of the league’s most dynamic. While Buffalo may not maximize his power-play opportunity, the organization should provide an excellent environment for him to develop into a top-pair NHL defenseman.

Fortunately, Rudolph’s fantasy value extends well beyond power-play production. His transition game is among the best in the draft class, allowing him to generate offense through controlled exits, entries, and rush creation. Just as importantly, he competes hard in all three zones and already posts strong peripheral numbers, contributing blocks, shots, and hits (BASH). That combination of offensive upside and multi-category production gives Rudolph one of the highest fantasy ceilings among defensemen in this class, even if he ultimately plays behind Dahlin on the depth chart.

Biggest Faller

Player: JP Hurlbert

Expected Range: Mid-Teens

Actual Selection: 23

Every draft produces at least one notable faller, and this year it was Hurlbert. Widely projected as a mid-first round pick, Hurlbert slipped until Detroit aggressively traded up to number 23 to end the slide. The Red Wings acquired the pick after sending Sebastian Cossa to Utah, with the Mammoth having previously acquired the selection from Boston in the JJ Peterka trade. Whatever concerns caused teams ahead of Detroit to pass, Steve Yzerman clearly believed the value had become too good to ignore. Hurlbert possesses one of the highest offensive ceilings among the forwards in this class, and Hockey Prospecting gives him a 40% probability of becoming an NHL star, underscoring just how impressive his offensive profile is.

For fantasy managers, this fall should not meaningfully change Hurlbert’s value. Draft position matters, but talent and development matter more. If anything, the slide creates a buying opportunity in dynasty leagues, as some managers may overreact to the draft position despite Hurlbert still projecting as a potential top-line, high-scoring winger with legitimate fantasy star upside.

Best Fantasy Landing Spot

Player: Chase Reid

Team: Seattle Kraken

The Seattle Kraken couldn’t have scripted this any better. Despite never selecting a defenseman in the first round in franchise history, they landed the top blueliner in the class when Reid unexpectedly fell to them at seventh overall. Reid is my number three fantasy prospect in the entire draft and my top-ranked defenseman, making this outstanding value. Seattle has lacked a true franchise defenseman with elite offensive upside, and Reid immediately becomes the centerpiece of their blueline pipeline with a clear path to eventually quarterbacking the top power-play unit.

From a fantasy perspective, this is about as good a landing spot as Reid could have hoped for. There is little organizational competition standing between him and a future top-pair, power play one role, allowing his elite skating, transition game, and two-way impact to flourish. The only factor that may ultimately limit his point ceiling is Seattle’s forward group. The Kraken have struggled to acquire the type of elite, game-breaking offensive talent that consistently inflates power-play production. Even so, Reid projects as a cornerstone multi-category fantasy defenseman, and if Seattle eventually surrounds him with higher-end finishers, his ceiling could rival any defenseman from this class.

Worst Fantasy Landing Spot

Player: Ryan Lin

Team: San Jose Sharks

This has nothing to do with Lin as a prospect. He’s one of the most dynamic offensive defensemen in the draft and possesses legitimate top-pair, power-play quarterback upside. The challenge is where he landed. San Jose already added two elite defensive prospects via draft: Sam Dickinson and now Keaton Verhoeff. Lin now finds himself competing with multiple high-end blueliners for future offensive opportunities, making his path to the top power-play unit much less straightforward.

From a fantasy perspective, opportunity is everything for offensive defensemen. To maximize his value, Lin will likely need to surpass both Dickinson and Verhoeff to earn power play one duties, a much taller task than he would have faced with many other organizations. He certainly has the talent to do it, but the increased competition lowers the probability that he reaches his fantasy ceiling. Lin remains an excellent dynasty prospect, but this is one landing spot where organizational depth slightly dampens the excitement.

Most Polarizing Selection

Player: Jonas Lagerberg Hoen

Team: Ottawa Senators

No selection generated more debate than Lagerberg Hoen. The polarization wasn’t necessarily about his talent, but rather the uncertainty surrounding his projection. Hoen played just nine J20 games and two SHL games before suffering a season-ending injury, leaving scouts with an extremely limited sample size. Even so, what he showed in those 11 games was undeniably exciting, flashing the skating, skill, and offensive instincts of a potential impact player. Ottawa is clearly betting on that upside, trusting its medical evaluations and internal scouting over the lack of viewings. It’s a high-risk, high-reward selection, but if Hoen stays healthy and develops as expected, this could ultimately be remembered as one of the steals of the 2026 draft rather than one of its biggest reaches.

The Pick That Made Me Think

Player: Gleb Pugachyov

Team: Montreal Canadiens

Pugachyov was the selection that made me pause and think. He isn’t nearly as well-known as many of the North American prospects, but NHL teams clearly value his unique profile. In many ways, he reminds me of Belchetz, a powerful winger who combines size, physicality, and enough offensive skill to project as a true power forward. There simply weren’t many players with that combination available in this draft, making him an intriguing bet on a relatively rare player archetype.

From a fantasy perspective, Pugachyov could become a valuable multi-category asset if his offensive game continues to develop. His Fantasy Hockey Life skater card already shows outstanding physicality, with impressive hit totals despite spending time in the KHL against men. Players who can contribute meaningful offense while piling up peripherals are always in demand in banger leagues, and that combination is likely what made him more attractive to NHL teams than to the public scouting community. This is one of those picks that will be fascinating to revisit in a few years.

Best Value Selection

Player: Tommy Bleyl

Team: Nashville Predators

Bleyl may ultimately prove to be the biggest value of the first round. I viewed him as a legitimate top-10 talent, and Nashville was thrilled to land him later in the round. Bleyl possesses one of the highest offensive ceilings of any defenseman in this class, combining elite skating, dynamic puck movement, and the confidence to create offense in transition. Hockey Prospecting also loves his upside, assigning him a 58% probability of becoming an NHL star, reinforcing the belief that this is a player with legitimate top-pair potential.

This also feels like the right organizational fit. Nashville’s prospect pipeline has lacked a true high-end offensive defenseman, and Bleyl gives them exactly that. Rather than settling for a safer projection, the Predators took a big swing on elite upside, and those are often the bets that pay off. If Bleyl reaches his ceiling, Nashville may look back on this as one of the steals of the 2026 NHL Draft, while fantasy managers could be looking at one of the most productive defensemen to emerge from the class.

Biggest Winner Among NHL Organizations

Team: San Jose Sharks

This one was an easy choice. The San Jose Sharks entered the draft with multiple first-round picks and executed their plan to perfection. They landed Ivar Stenberg, who I believe has a legitimate case as the best player in the entire draft. While Gavin McKenna may carry the higher fantasy ceiling, Stenberg projects as the more complete NHL player and could very well have the greater real-life impact. The Sharks then doubled down by selecting two defensemen that many scouts viewed as top-10 talents, dramatically strengthening one of the weakest areas of their prospect pipeline.

Perhaps most importantly, San Jose addressed its biggest organizational weakness on the right side of the blueline while adding elite talent throughout the lineup. Rather than simply drafting the best player available at each selection, the Sharks managed to do both, adding premium talent while filling critical organizational needs. Few teams left the first round with a clearer vision or a more impressive haul, making San Jose the biggest organizational winner of the night.

Biggest Winner Among Prospects

Player: Carson Carels

No prospect may have improved his long-term outlook more than Carels. Calgary feels like an ideal fit, both on and off the ice. A Manitoba farm boy, Carels lands with a team on the Canadian Prairies in an organization that desperately needed exactly what he brings. While the Flames have invested heavily in offensive defensemen like Zayne Parekh, Carels offers a different profile, one that projects to translate much more seamlessly to the NHL. He has the skating, hockey sense, and defensive reliability to become a true top-pair defenseman, giving him one of the highest floors in the entire draft.

From a fantasy perspective, this landing spot only enhances his value. Carels already projects as the premier BASH defenseman in the class, leading all top prospects in blocks, hits, and physical engagement while still possessing enough offensive ability to contribute meaningful point production. Just as importantly, there is no obvious long-term obstacle blocking his ascent to a top-pair role in Calgary. Opportunity, organizational need, and player fit all align, making this one of the best marriages of player and team from the entire first round.

Three Prospects Whose Dynasty Stock Increased

Player #1 – Carson Carels
Carels was already one of my favorite defensemen in the class, and Calgary only strengthens his dynasty outlook. The Flames have a clear need for a dependable top-pair defenseman, and there is little standing in the way of Carels eventually filling that role. His combination of a high floor, strong offensive instincts, and elite BASH production makes him one of the safest and most valuable dynasty defensemen to target.

Player #2 – Ivar Stenberg
Stenberg landed in arguably the best long-term offensive environment in hockey. Joining a young core that already includes Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith gives him a chance to be part of one of the NHL’s most dynamic offenses for years to come. With William Eklund now out of the picture and Stenberg’s game already close to NHL-ready, there is a legitimate opportunity for him to earn meaningful minutes sooner rather than later. His fantasy ceiling was already elite, and San Jose only enhances it.

Player #3 – Nikita Klepov
Anaheim may be the ideal development environment for Klepov. He possesses legitimate high-end offensive upside, but unlike many organizations, the Ducks won’t need him to become a star immediately. Their young core is already in place, allowing Klepov to develop patiently without the pressure of carrying the franchise. That type of environment often produces better long-term results, and if his offensive toolkit reaches its potential, Anaheim could end up with one of the biggest steals of the draft.

Three Prospects Whose Dynasty Stock Decreased

Player #1 – Daxon Rudolph: This isn’t an indictment of Rudolph’s talent, as he’s still one of the premier defensemen in the class. The issue is opportunity. While his right-handed shot makes him an ideal long-term partner for Rasmus Dahlin, he is unlikely to ever supplant Dahlin as Buffalo’s top power-play quarterback. That limits Rudolph’s ultimate fantasy ceiling compared to landing with a team where PP1 duties were available.

Player #2 – Ryan Lin: Lin still projects as an exciting offensive defenseman, but the path to elite fantasy production became more difficult. To reach top power-play relevance in San Jose, he’ll likely have to leapfrog both Sam Dickinson and Daxon Verhoeff, two outstanding young defensemen with similar aspirations. It’s certainly possible, but the competition for offensive deployment is much steeper than it would have been with several other organizations.

Player #3 – Adam Novotny: Novotny already projected as more of a middle-six NHL forward than a future top-line scorer, and landing in Vancouver makes that path even narrower. With Caleb Malhotra ahead of him in the organization’s long-term plans down the middle, Novotny faces an additional obstacle to earning premium offensive minutes. He’s still a quality prospect with NHL upside, but his fantasy ceiling takes a modest hit as his path to a top-six role becomes more crowded.

Final Thoughts

The first round reinforced an important lesson for dynasty managers: draft capital matters, but context matters almost as much. Landing spot can accelerate or delay a prospect’s path to fantasy relevance, yet it rarely changes who the player fundamentally is. Several prospects saw their dynasty value rise because opportunity aligned with talent, while others simply face a longer road to premium minutes despite remaining elite prospects.

As always, don’t overreact to one night. Every year, players slide for reasons that prove meaningless five years later, while others rise because an organization believes it can unlock something the public doesn’t yet see. Smart dynasty managers should use these shifts in perception to their advantage, buying talented players who fall and remaining patient with prospects whose situations may temporarily obscure their long-term upside. Round 1 gave us plenty to think about, but there are still dozens of talented players left on the board. History tells us that some of the biggest steals of the 2026 draft will be selected on Day 2.

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