Welcome back, everyone! I hope that all my buddies up north had an enjoyable and safe Canada Day and same goes for everyone here with me in the States for the Fourth of July.

Last week, I speculated that: Zach Werenski would remain with the Columbus Blue Jackets, which for better or worse for fantasy looks to be the case; Jason Robertson and the Stars would head to an arbitration hearing, which seems to be the case; Dylan Larkin will get traded but that would take place later this summer. I don't like dealing in speculation when it comes to fantasy, but these transactions right now matter tremendously. With that, let's talk about offer sheets and arbitration.

Leo Carlsson C (21) signs a 5-year contract with the Philadelphia Flyers at a $18-million cap hit ($90M Total) …sort of.

Last Friday, I found myself in my least favorite place: a car dealership. To be fair, the Hyundai dealership I was at was perfectly nice—they were fixing a recalled part on our new Tucson —but you get the idea. I was sitting in a surprisingly comfortable waiting‑room chair when a notification popped up on my iPhone: the Flyers had tendered an offer sheet to Leo Carlsson.

I already knew the draft‑pick compensation because I've been fully prepared for the same thing to happen to Connor Bedard (Buffalo scenario, hello). So, I put my phone down and went back to whatever random home‑improvement show was on in the waiting area. Less than a minute later, my fantasy group chat started blowing up. I checked the offer again. Welcome to 2026–27 with your highest‑AAV player…Leo Carlsson.

"Welp I'm—" was the reaction from the manager who currently rosters Carlsson in our league, and honestly, I can't blame him. The question right now is simple: Is Carlsson rosterable at that price? The likely answer is yes, but if the rumors were true that he would've accepted an Anaheim deal $5- to $8-million cheaper, that difference is massive in any fantasy build—especially in large‑field dynasty salary leagues like mine.

So now we're dealing with an $18M Leo Carlsson. When he was drafted, I thought the gap between him and Bedard was smaller than people realized, and that may be showing itself. Carlsson's production jumped from 44 to 67 points last season. Had he played all 82 games, I think he lands somewhere around 78–80. At his age, it's not unreasonable to project him as a perennial 84–88‑point center. Where his game really took a leap was on the power play, and that's partly thanks to Jackson LaCombe's contributions and John Carlson's arrival in Anaheim. If Carlsson stays with the Ducks, I could see continued improvement under Joel Quenneville, who typically coaches strong power‑play units. But if he ends up in a Flyers sweater, that upside drops fast: Anaheim ranked 17th in power‑play goals last season, while the Flyers were dead last.

It might be revisionist history to say the Ducks and Carlsson should've reached an agreement earlier, but I do think this is a trend we'll see more often. Teams will sign RFAs to higher AAVs to avoid exactly this situation. I expect the Ducks to wait the full seven days before matching, simply because it limits what Philadelphia can do. If I'm Columbus with Adam Fantilli or Chicago with Connor Bedard, I'm watching this very carefully. The same thing could absolutely happen if you're rostering these players.

One more important note: Teams can tender multiple offer sheets at once. Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway were tendered on the same day. Fantasy managers with Group 2 RFAs need to keep this in mind—especially in dynasty and salary‑cap formats.

Jason Roberston LW (26), files for arbitration

The last time the Jason Robertson contract saga unfolded, we waited until right before training camp for him and the Dallas Stars to finally settle on a number and an AAV. This time, things have escalated earlier: we already know he turned down a larger offer from the Seattle Kraken, and all indications are that he wants to remain in Dallas. That brings us to the current crossroads—an arbitration hearing between Robertson and the Stars.

I'm not ruling out the possibility that Robertson is ultimately traded, but for now let's assume the arbitration process plays out and he stays in Dallas. Robertson has made it clear he wants to be paid in the same neighborhood as teammate Mikko Rantanen, and realistically his market value probably lands somewhere in the $12–$13.5-million AAV range. That aligns with the structures for both Rantanen and Mitch Marner in Vegas.

Using Marner as a benchmark, that's a steep jump from Robertson's previous $7.75-million AAV—but most fantasy managers have likely been anticipating this increase. Robertson came just four points shy of his second 100‑point season, and his underlying numbers still support elite production. I expect him to remain around a 3.2–3.5 points‑per‑60 player, which should keep him in the ~90‑point range annually. At that rate, fantasy managers should also be able to count on him reaching the 40‑goal mark each season.

One important detail: while Robertson is in the arbitration process, he cannot be tendered an offer sheet.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.