The Journey: 2026 First-Rounders Better In Real Life Than Fantasy
Victor Nuno
2026-07-11
Every year, dynasty managers fall into the same trap.
We evaluate prospects almost exclusively through a fantasy lens. Goals, assists, power-play deployment, and point projections dominate the conversation. Those things matter for our leagues, but they don’t always determine who becomes the better NHL player.
NHL organizations value a much broader skill set. Defensive responsibility, puck retrieval, transition play, physicality, hockey sense, penalty killing, and the ability to handle difficult matchups often separate players who enjoy long, successful NHL careers from those who simply produce offense in junior hockey.
The 2026 draft is filled with players who fit this mold. Many project as coaches’ favorites and future top-four defensemen or middle-six forwards who help teams win games. They may play 18 to 24 minutes a night, kill penalties, and earn enormous trust from their coaching staffs, yet never produce the kind of offensive totals fantasy managers covet.
These players have a high fantasy floor as likely NHLers, even if they don't produce a lot of points and may at some point turn the corner and produce in fantasy as well as real life. But many of them will remain better in real life than fantasy and you might want to consider pushing them down your draft board.
Caleb Malhotra – C, Vancouver Canucks
Malhotra might be one of the safest forwards in the entire draft to reach the NHL, even if his fantasy ceiling is more modest than many of the offensive stars selected around him. His game is built around intelligence, defensive detail, and playing winning hockey. He consistently supports the puck, wins battles in all three zones, takes pride in his defensive responsibilities, and already looks like the type of center coaches trust in every situation. Those qualities could allow him to develop into a matchup center who plays heavy minutes against top competition while contributing secondary offense. Fantasy managers, however, generally reward centers who drive power-play production rather than suppress opposing stars. Malhotra could become an invaluable NHL player while settling into the 50-to-60-point range offensively.
Alberts Smits – D, New York Rangers
Few defensemen in this draft project as confidently to a long NHL career as Alberts Smits. His combination of size, mobility, defensive awareness, and maturity makes him the kind of player organizations love building around. Smits already demonstrates excellent gap control, consistently closes plays early, and shows the poise to handle difficult defensive assignments against quality competition. While he possesses enough puck-moving ability to contribute offensively, his game is driven by efficiency rather than creativity. That’s where the fantasy divide begins. Elite fantasy defensemen usually quarterback the top power play and pile up points. Smits projects more as the dependable minute-eater trusted to play 24 minutes a night in every situation, making him enormously valuable to his NHL team without necessarily becoming a perennial fantasy star.
Viggo Björck – C, Winnipeg Jets
Björck possesses enough offensive ability to become an NHL contributor, but what separates him is everything he does away from the puck. His compete level, defensive engagement, and willingness to battle for possession allow him to impact games even when he isn’t producing offense. He consistently supports teammates, creates turnovers through effort, and makes intelligent decisions that help drive puck possession. Those habits tend to earn larger roles from NHL coaches than fantasy managers often appreciate. Björck may eventually become an outstanding complementary top-six winger whose overall impact exceeds what his point totals alone suggest.
Keaton Verhoeff – D, San Jose Sharks
His blend of size, skating, intelligence, and defensive reliability gives Verhoeff one of the highest NHL floors in the draft. Verhoeff typically maintains excellent positioning and consistently makes the safe play under pressure. Coaches love defensemen who minimize mistakes while still moving the puck efficiently, and Verhoeff already displays many of those qualities. While he owns enough offensive skill to contribute, he profiles more as the type of defenseman who logs massive minutes against elite competition than one who consistently produces 60-plus points. His real-life value could far exceed his fantasy production.
Alexander Command – C, New Jersey Devils
Command’s game revolves around intelligence and efficiency rather than highlight-reel offense. He processes the game extremely well, supports play in all three zones, and consistently puts himself in positions to help his team maintain possession. Centers who think the game this well often earn coaches’ trust quickly because they can adapt to multiple roles and situations. While there is enough offensive skill to envision a productive NHL career, Command projects more as a dependable two-way center than an offensive driver, limiting his long-term fantasy ceiling despite his strong NHL outlook.
Malte Gustafsson – D, New York Islanders
If there is a prototype for this article, it may be Gustafsson. He embodies the type of defender NHL organizations value more than fantasy managers do. His game lacks flash, but it rarely lacks effectiveness. He moves the puck efficiently, defends with excellent structure, and consistently makes smart, low-risk decisions that keep his team on the right side of possession. Rather than trying to create offense through high-risk plays, Gustafsson focuses on winning shifts and limiting mistakes. That style may never produce elite fantasy totals, but it often results in long careers playing meaningful minutes on competitive NHL teams.
Oliver Suvanto – C, Washington Capitals
Suvanto plays a style that coaches appreciate immediately. He forechecks relentlessly, wins board battles, retrieves pucks, and consistently creates opportunities through effort rather than pure offensive creativity. Players with his work ethic often earn larger NHL roles because they make life easier for skilled linemates while remaining trustworthy defensively. Fantasy hockey rarely rewards those traits unless they translate into consistent scoring. Suvanto’s offensive ceiling may ultimately limit his fantasy value, but his overall game gives him a strong chance to become a reliable NHL contributor.
Elton Hermansson – RW/LW, Los Angeles Kings
Hermansson may never lead a team in scoring, but there are plenty of reasons to believe he could enjoy a lengthy NHL career. His skating, pace, and relentless motor allow him to pressure defenders, disrupt breakouts, and create turnovers that don’t always appear on the scoresheet. Coaches value players who consistently tilt the ice through effort and defensive responsibility, particularly in playoff hockey where every puck battle matters. Hermansson’s impact could significantly outweigh his fantasy production if he develops into the type of dependable middle-six winger every contender wants.
Ilia Morozov – C, Buffalo Sabres
Morozov possesses many of the physical tools NHL teams covet in shutdown pivot. His size, reach, defensive awareness, and willingness to play physically project well to professional hockey, where limiting chances against often becomes more valuable than creating offense. While he can move the puck effectively enough to support transition, there isn’t currently evidence of the dynamic offensive creativity typically associated with elite fantasy forwards. Instead, Morozov projects as the kind of reliable center who quietly handles difficult minutes for years without ever becoming a major fantasy asset.
Maksim Sokolovskii – D, Philadelphia Flyers
Sokolovskii’s greatest strengths come from his pace, competitiveness, and overall hockey sense. He consistently supports teammates, tracks back defensively, and plays with the type of structure coaches appreciate. Rather than relying on elite offensive skill, he creates value by making intelligent decisions and maintaining strong habits shift after shift. Those qualities often translate remarkably well to the NHL, but they don’t necessarily generate the offensive production required to become a meaningful fantasy contributor. He could ultimately become a far better NHL player than fantasy managers expect.
Juho Piiparinen – D, Vegas Golden Knights
Piiparinen already displays a level of maturity uncommon for his age. His experience against professional competition has accelerated his defensive development, and he consistently demonstrates strong positioning, gap control, and poise under pressure. There is enough puck-moving ability to contribute offensively, but his greatest strengths remain his reliability and decision-making. Those traits project extremely well to an NHL coaching staff looking for dependable minutes, even if they don’t project to significant fantasy production. Piiparinen looks like the type of player who quietly carves out a decade-long NHL career.
Jack Hextall – C, Calgary Flames
Hextall rounds out this list because he embodies many of the qualities coaches love but fantasy managers often overlook. He competes relentlessly, plays with an edge, forechecks aggressively, and consistently brings energy every shift. Players with this profile often become valuable culture pieces and trusted playoff contributors because they influence games through effort, physicality, and responsibility rather than scoring alone. Hextall may never become a high-end fantasy option, but don’t be surprised if he ends up playing hundreds of NHL games because winning teams always need players willing to do the difficult work that rarely shows up on the scoresheet.
Final Thoughts
Every draft class includes players whose value depends on who’s doing the evaluating. NHL organizations build teams around players who can win difficult minutes, kill penalties, defend leads, and consistently make the right decisions under pressure. Fantasy managers, meanwhile, are rewarded almost exclusively for offense. Those two goals often overlap, but not always.
The players on this list all have legitimate NHL upside, and many will enjoy long, productive careers. Some may eventually outperform these projections offensively, but their greatest strengths lie in the details of the game that don’t always translate to fantasy scoring. As you’re building your dynasty rankings, remember that being an excellent NHL player doesn’t automatically make someone an elite fantasy asset. Understanding that distinction can help you identify where the market may overvalue, or undervalue, a prospect based on your league’s scoring format.
Thanks for reading! See you next week. For more fantasy hockey analysis, or if there's a prospect, topic, or theme you'd like me to cover, follow and message me on X: https://x.com/VictorNuno12