*Note: Stats courtesy of Frozen Tools

Last week we looked at the top fantasy breakout candidates for next season. So naturally, we now have to turn to the opposite end of the spectrum and predict some players who could regress. Which players will stumble next season, and who should fantasy managers avoid in their drafts? Let's take a look at the Top 10 Fantasy Regression Candidates for 2026-27.

10. Brad Marchand, LW, Florida Panthers

Despite the age of the roster, the Panthers still boast one of the best forward cores in the NHL. At 38 years old, Marchand is still a very impactful hockey player and valuable to any franchise. However, due to Florida's extensive injury struggles last season, Marchand saw way more ice than he typically would. Now, with a fully healthy group and the acquisition of another left winger in Brady Tkachuk, Marchand will be relegated to the third line. Tkachuk plays a similar style to Marchand but is younger, faster, and more skilled. This makes Marchand of less importance moving forward. His age and usage should see him regress next season.

9. Mika Zibanejad, C, New York Rangers

Zibanejad has been a consistent 70-point player during his tenure in New York, serving as the team’s number one centre. Unfortunately, the Rangers contention window is now closed, and the team shipped off major assets like Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. Zibanejad is now 33, and without the same support system he once had, it will be difficult for the aging veteran to replicate his production of the past seasons. New addition Pavel Dorofeyev and former first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere will have to step up in a big way for Zibanejad to be a worthwhile fantasy option.

8. Ryan O'Reilly, C, Nashville Predators

Veteran center O'Reilly is coming off his best season in nearly a decade, recording 74 points. He's now 35 years old, and while he has never been the fastest player on the ice, he has made his mark as one of the best two-way centremen in the league. He has been holding down the number one center role in Nashville, but with the addition of Mavrik Bourque in the offseason, that position is now up for grabs. We could see O'Reilly begin to transition into more of a middle-six two-way centreman as his career winds down. He should no longer be a relied-upon fantasy option for managers.

7. Dan Vladar, G, Philadelphia Flyers

Vladar was one of the best stories in the NHL last year as his play down the stretch was enough to propel the Flyers into the postseason. It earned the veteran goaltender a five-year extension and the keys to the crease in Philly for next season. However, that was only the second time in his career that the 28-year-old managed a save percentage above .900. The Flyers are still a young team, and they barely snuck into the playoffs. Many teams in the East have improved, such as Florida, Washington, and Toronto. Vladar will need to reach another level if the Flyers want to reach the postseason once more, and over the course of his career, he's unproven as a starting goaltender.

6. Nick Schmaltz, C, Utah Mammoth

Schmaltz is one of the more underrated point producers throughout the league. Despite his size, he’s managed at least 60 points in each of the last three years, including a career-high 74 this past season. However, the Mammoth just acquired Vincent Trocheck, who is one of the best faceoff men in the NHL. As a result, Schmaltz may move out of his natural position and onto the wing. Not to mention that Logan Cooley is slated for more ice time and the team has several top prospects like Tij Iginla, Caleb Desnoyers, and Daniil But, who are ready to step into NHL roles. Schmaltz could see himself in a diminished role next season, which doesn't bode well for his fantasy value.

5. Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Detroit Red Wings

Arvidsson has been a solid middle-six player throughout his career. However, last season on the Bruins forward group, he was given a bigger role and flourished, recording 54 points in 69 games. He now signed with the Red Wings for the next two seasons, but Detroit’s direction for next season is unclear. With Dylan Larkin likely leaving, the team will boast one of the weakest center cores in the NHL. Going to a poor team with little help up front may be enough to witness a regression from the 33-year-old. This rings especially true when you consider that last season was an outlier compared to the production in his past few campaigns.

4. Darren Raddysh, D, Toronto Maple Leafs

At the age of 30, veteran Raddysh had his breakout season in the NHL, destroying his career high in points with 70, including 22 goals. He took over as the Lightning's power-play quarterback once Victor Hedman went down with an injury. His bomb from the point gave the team a new weapon with the man advantage. However, his breakout season priced him out of Tampa, and the team completed a sign-and-trade that sent Raddysh to Toronto. Betting on a 30-year-old to repeat the best season of his career is risky, to say the least. The Maple Leafs power play had a poor percentage last season despite having elite weapons. With Auston Matthews getting a lot of the shooting looks, Raddysh won't have the same scoring opportunities he did last season. He may have another stellar offensive campaign, but not having the best passer in the world,  Nikita Kucherov, feeding him the puck on the PP won’t help matters.

3. Steven Stamkos, RW, Nashville Predators

It seemed that Stamkos hit his regression point last season after starting the year ice cold. Despite that, he turned things around and managed to hit the 40-goal mark for Nashville. However, the Predators are an aging group with several players likely slated to take a step back in the coming years. This includes Ryan O'Reilly, who will likely be centering Stamkos again next season. While his elite shot will never be a non-factor, at 36 years old it’s unlikely we see him repeat the feats of last season. Managers drafting Stamkos to be a 40-goal scorer will be sorely disappointed.

2. Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights

Stone has been a productive player throughout his NHL career. However, his foot speed has always been his biggest downfall. While that didn't stop him from having his most productive season to date, at 34 years old it becomes more of a factor. Stone has also never had a fully healthy season and has a lot of miles on his body after the Golden Knights made their run to the Stanley Cup Finals. He tends to be more of a passer than a goal scorer, which is less valuable in many fantasy formats. He will still be a valuable player next season for Vegas, but it's likely that we see his production start to steadily decline.

1. Anthony Mantha, LW, New Jersey Devils

Mantha is an obvious candidate to see a regression in his production. He benefited last season from the lack of talent that Pittsburgh had available on the wing. As a result, he found himself playing alongside Crosby and Malkin at five-on-five, and saw lots of time on the power play. New Jersey has more talent on the wings than Pittsburgh, and this means Mantha may find himself in a third-line role. If he plays in the top-six, he should produce at even strength. However, he won't see the power-play ice he saw with the Penguins. He'll be 32 by the time the season starts and is coming off by far the best season of his career. Not to mention that Mantha has an extensive injury history. Fantasy managers should be wary if they expect Mantha to repeat his production from the year prior.

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