This week we are returning to our division reviews and identifying candidates to bounce back and candidates to avoid on draft day. We have already reviewed the Pacific Division, so today we move on to the Central.

As a reminder here is a little context setting from the original article.

In order to make this process a bit more concrete we are going to focus on three stats from the Dobber Reports; five on five team shooting percentage (5on5 S%), individual points percentage (IPP), and individual shooting percentage (S%). These are certainly not the end-all, be-all of player evaluation but do tend to flag players who are likely to see a different point pace in the future.

Before jumping into the players, let's do a quick refresher on what these stats tell us. We use team shooting percentage to get an idea of how many points are being scored while a player is on the ice. We use five on five because that is the largest game state for players. Power-play points count just the same on the score sheet so we could look at that as well, but in the interest of cutting down our data points we are going to focus on the even strength number here. IPP, which we will sometimes refer to as a player's points participation, is how often a player is getting a point on a goal that is scored while they are on the ice. Finally, shooting percentage is just the standard: what percent of a player's shots are going into the net?

With all of these stats thoughts, it is important to take them into context. Not just what would an average player do, but how does this number compare to their career numbers? In order to do that I grabbed the same data points for the 2025-26 season and am comparing them to each player's recent career average. Broadly speaking, and barring changes in the player's situation (changing teams, sudden promotion to a top line etc.) we would expect these numbers to return that career average.  

For our first group we are looking at players whose underlying numbers in question were lower than their recent career averages. Generally speaking, we might expect these numbers to revert back to those averages and therefore those players to have a bit more production in the future.

Nazem Kadri is an interesting case because he moved teams during the 25-26 season. He would be expected to play a slightly different role in Colorado than he did in Calgary. Given that, we might expect his 25-26 underlying numbers to his new baseline. It still looks like he got a bit less than he deserved, even in a new role. The thing we do need to consider is his power-play deployment. He deserved closer to a 60-point pace last year, but with that came about 20 power play points. He will need to continue that top power-play deployment in Colorado in order to get to that 60- to 65-point range. There are other options in Colorado who have been on the top power play in the past, so adjust accordingly if Kadri gets bumped.

Unless your league really values face-offs Barrett Hayton was unlikely relevant, even though he got some decent power-play time. Given that he shows up on this list it stands to reason we will be arguing that he deserved a bit better, could maybe have been relevant, and might be relevant next year. Unfortunately, he likely won't. He seems cemented into a third line role, and with the addition of Vincent Trocheck, likely will have less opportunity. Plus, even if his underlying numbers were a bit better, it seems unlikely he would have moved past a 40-point pace. So yes, he could have performed better, but no, probably still not that relevant.

From one former high pedigree guy to another. Mason McTavish really had a rough season while everyone else in Anaheim seemed to be breaking out. He lost time on ice, had a lower shot rate, and was benched. There is a lot of good news though. Even with the decreased deployment, he still deserved better; likely something in the 50-point range. That isn't a huge increase, but he also is now on a team that actually wants him to be there. Give him back an extra minute of ice time like his prior two years and 55 points seems within easy reach. He was doing that previously in Anaheim with about 12 power-play points. If he can make his way on to that top power play, 60-65 is within reach.

Unfortunately, we also have some players whose underlying numbers were a bit higher than we expected, meaning that their production might not be the most sustainable.

Nashville has had an odd couple of seasons. Significant hardship, and a wasteland for fantasy production to suddenly having a few interesting guys. Ryan O'Reilly jumped from a 55-point pace to a 75-point pace, but unfortunately it might have been a little too good to be true. He ran too hot in basically all the areas we are looking at and maybe deserved something closer to a 60- to 65-point pace. Filip Forsberg and Steven Stamkos having good seasons helped, and with an influx of young guys coming, there is still hope for a relevant season, but 75 points might just be the high end of what to hope for.

Mikko Rantanen has certainly had an interesting path the last two seasons, and it does make comparisons a little bit difficult. Yes, he seemed to have scored a little hotter than his numbers indicate, but he is also Mikko Rantanen. He has a strong history of 100+ point seasons. He maybe earned closer to 90-95 points in 25-26 than 100. It is worth noting though that his total time on ice and his shot rates have dropped from his Colorado days so fully getting back to that 100- to 110-point pace range might not actually be in the cards in Dallas. Still though, 90-100 points seems reasonable.

Matt Boldy broke out again to the tune of a 92-point pace, up from his 75-point previous couple of seasons. The trouble is his time on ice, power-play deployment, shot rates, and expected goal rates don't look that different from his 75-point self. The biggest changes were in his personal shooting percentage, and his team shooting percentage. He personally scored about nine more goals than if he had shot at his career numbers. Boldy is a young player entering his prime, so it is definitely possible that he is creating a new normal with his production, but it is also possible that he deserved something under point per game in 25-26, and could return to that 80- to 85-point pace in the future.

That is all for this week.

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