One of the biggest mistakes dynasty managers make is assuming a prospect’s draft-year production represents his offensive ceiling. In reality, context matters just as much as talent. Injuries, deep rosters, limited ice time, league changes, and weak supporting casts can all suppress a player’s counting stats during his draft season. The following year often tells a very different story.

Every season, a handful of recently drafted prospects see their production explode, not because they suddenly became better players overnight, but because they’re finally healthy, earn larger roles, join stronger teams, or simply benefit from another year of development. Those breakouts can dramatically increase a prospect’s dynasty value before they ever sign an NHL contract.

For this article, I’m intentionally looking beyond the obvious names. Players selected in the top 15 are expected to produce. Instead, let’s focus on several prospects drafted outside the first 15 selections who I believe are primed to take a significant statistical step forward during the 2026-27 season.

Ryan Lin – D, San Jose Sharks (Round 1, 21st Overall)

Lin’s draft-year production was impressive on the surface, posting 57 points in 53 games, but it could have been even better. He spent the season on a struggling Vancouver Giants club and missed roughly six weeks with a broken wrist after being named team captain. Despite those obstacles, he still established himself as one of the WHL’s most dynamic puck-moving defensemen, relying on his elite skating and offensive instincts to generate offense almost single-handedly. The underlying analytics are already extremely bullish, as Hockey Prospecting currently gives Lin a 76% chance of becoming an NHL star, one of the highest marks among players in the 2026 draft class.

Next season brings a dramatic change in environment as Lin heads to the University of Denver, one of college hockey’s premier programs. Denver recently graduated star defenseman Zeev Buium, creating an opportunity for Lin to step directly into meaningful minutes. Surrounded by significantly more talent and playing for a perennial contender, Lin's confidence and offensive production should reach another level. If he pops off the way I think he can, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that Hockey Prospecting star probability climb north of 85%, putting him into the near-lock tier of prospects and solidifying his status as one of the premier offensive defensemen from this draft class.

Adam Novotný – LW, Vancouver Canucks (Round 1, 24th Overall)

Novotný has always possessed high-end offensive tools, but his draft-year production never fully reflected them. In his first season in North America, he was adjusting to the OHL while playing for a Peterborough Petes team that was competitive but far from an offensive powerhouse. Even so, his combination of size, hands, and hockey sense consistently hinted at another level that never quite materialized on the scoresheet. Despite the modest production, his pNHLe has already been trending upward, reflecting the strong underlying indicators in his game.

He’ll return to Peterborough as one of the club’s primary offensive focal points, and that increased responsibility should translate directly into better numbers. As he becomes more comfortable on the North American ice and continues to mature physically, I expect his production to take a significant step forward. If that happens, his pNHLe should continue its upward trajectory and push past the 70-point mark, cementing him as one of the best value picks from the latter half of the first round.

Jonas Lagerberg Hoen – RW, Ottawa Senators (Round 1, 25th Overall)

Lagerberg Hoen barely had a draft season. After exploding for 16 points in just nine junior games, he suffered a season-ending injury that robbed him of nearly an entire year of development. Despite the lack of games played, Ottawa still selected him in the first round because scouts believed in his dynamic skating, NHL-caliber shot, and elite offensive upside.

Two minutes of Jonas Lagerberg Hoen's (#Sens) best goals from the past two seasons.

Nasty curl-and-drag releases, slick wristers off the catch, powerful one-timers, and beating defenders wide with speed. pic.twitter.com/KAVqQzKDhx

— Lassi Alanen (@lassialanen) June 27, 2026

Assuming he’s fully healthy, the opportunity is there for one of the biggest statistical jumps in the entire draft class. Instead of spending another season rehabbing, he’ll finally have the chance to put together a full campaign and show what he can do over an extended sample. There may not be a bigger wild card from the 2026 first round, and if he stays healthy, I expect his production to remind everyone why so many evaluators viewed him as a top-20 talent before the injury.

Maksim Sokolovskii – D, Philadelphia Flyers (Round 1, 27th Overall)

Sokolovskii is one of the most fascinating long-term projects in the draft. Standing 6-7, he spent much of last season adapting to North American hockey while playing on a deep London Knights roster. Players of his size often require additional development time simply because learning to consistently use such a large frame takes longer than it does for smaller defensemen. While the offensive ceiling may never be elite, the physical tools are already impossible to ignore. His Fantasy Hockey Life Skater Card graded him in the 97th percentile for hits in the OHL, highlighting the type of category coverage he can provide.

He’ll head to the University of Maine next season, where a larger role and increased responsibility could allow him to take a meaningful step forward. The offense may never be the defining aspect of his game, but his physicality should translate immediately. With more ice time, his already elite hit totals could climb dramatically, and as those counting stats pile up, expect both NHL and fantasy managers to take much greater notice of his unique profile.

Jack Hextall – C, Calgary Flames (Round 1, 30th Overall)

Hextall quietly put together an outstanding season with Youngstown, one of the USHL’s premier organizations. While his numbers were strong, he played on a veteran-heavy roster where offensive opportunities were spread throughout the lineup. His relentless competitiveness, high-end hockey sense, and ability to drive play consistently stood out beyond the raw point totals. His Fantasy Hockey Life Skater Card also paints an encouraging picture, highlighting his strong transition game and physical play, two traits that should continue to serve him well as he climbs the development ladder.

Now he’ll head to Michigan State, one of the strongest NCAA programs in the country, where he’ll be surrounded by significantly more offensive talent. That combination of elite teammates and one of college hockey’s premier development environments should allow his offensive game to flourish. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hextall quickly establishes himself as one of the top freshman producers in the NCAA and substantially raises his stock over the course of the season.

Tommy Bleyl – D, Nashville Predators (Round 1, 31st Overall)

Bleyl already established himself as one of premier offensive defensemen in the 2026 draft, but there is plenty of room to grow still. His skating, vision, and puck-moving ability consistently created offense throughout his draft season, even while playing on a talented Moncton club that shared offensive responsibilities. The underlying analytics are equally encouraging, with Hockey Prospecting already giving Bleyl a 70% chance of becoming an NHL star, an outstanding mark for a defenseman.

Like Hextall, Bleyl is headed to Michigan State next season. Offensive defensemen often experience their biggest statistical jumps when surrounded by elite forwards who can capitalize on the chances they create, and Michigan State should provide exactly that environment. If Bleyl takes the offensive step forward that I expect, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his Hockey Prospecting star probability climb even farther.

Jaxon Cover – RW, Ottawa Senators (Round 1, 32nd Overall)

Few players had their offensive opportunities limited more than Cover. Playing for the powerhouse London Knights meant competing for ice time on one of the deepest rosters in junior hockey, and the organization has a long history of bringing draft-eligible players along in more limited roles. Despite possessing legitimate top-six offensive ability, Cover saw his production suppressed by the depth around him, leaving him with one of the lower pNHLe projections among first-round picks.

That should change dramatically as he heads to Penn State next season. With far more opportunity to play in offensive situations and a chance to earn top power-play minutes, Cover is in an ideal position to take a major step forward. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his pNHLe soar as he finally gets the opportunity to showcase the offensive skill that made him a first-round selection.

Brooks Rogowsky – C, Vancouver Canucks (Round 2, 33rd Overall)

Rogowsky’s draft-year production doesn’t tell the full story. After beginning the season with the U.S. National Team Development Program, he made the midseason jump to the Oshawa Generals, leaving him with just 46 OHL games to adapt to a new league, new teammates, and a new system. That’s a difficult transition for any player during a draft year, but he still flashed the two-way game and offensive instincts that made him a high second-round pick. His Fantasy Hockey Life Skater Card is particularly encouraging, grading him well in transition play, takeaways, and loose puck recoveries, all indicators that often translate into future offensive success.

For the first time since arriving in Oshawa, Rogowsky will have a full offseason, training camp, and entire OHL season with the Generals. That continuity alone should allow his offensive game to take a meaningful step forward, and I expect him to emerge as one of Oshawa’s offensive leaders. Don’t be surprised if his production jumps significantly now that the adjustment period is behind him.

Elton Hermansson – RW, Los Angeles Kings (Round 1, 19th Overall)

Hermansson spent most of his draft season playing in the HockeyAllsvenskan against men, an impressive feat for a draft-eligible forward. While his production there was modest, he was far more dominant whenever he dropped down to the U20 level, and he showcased his offensive upside on the international stage with an outstanding performance at the U18 World Championship. His skating, vision, and play-driving ability consistently hinted at more offense than the box score reflected. As a result of the muted production, Hockey Prospecting currently gives him just an 18% chance of becoming an NHL star, a figure that I believe significantly undersells his upside.

Another year of physical and offensive development should allow Hermansson to make a much bigger impact in the HockeyAllsvenskan. With another season of experience against professional competition under his belt, I expect his confidence and production to take a significant step forward. If he pops the way I think he can, don’t be surprised to see that Hockey Prospecting star probability climb substantially. Hermansson has all the tools to emerge as one of the biggest risers from the 2026 draft class.

Alan Shaikhlislamov – RW, Calgary Flames (Round 3)

Shaikhlislamov is exactly the kind of high-upside swing dynasty managers should target. Calgary bet on his offensive talent despite some inconsistency, recognizing that his combination of skill and creativity offers far more upside than his draft-year production alone would suggest. His Fantasy Hockey Life Skater Card also reveals encouraging underlying traits, particularly his play-driving ability and willingness to engage physically, suggesting there’s more to his game than the raw point totals indicate.

Perhaps most importantly, Shaikhlislamov was born on September 4, just 11 days before the September 15 draft cutoff, making him one of the youngest players selected in the entire 2026 NHL Draft. Put another way, if you shifted his birthdate back a year and treated this as his draft-minus-one season, his production would look exceptionally impressive. That extra year of physical and offensive development, combined with a larger role in the MHL, could easily produce one of the biggest statistical jumps among the 2026 draft class.

Final Thoughts

Every year, a handful of prospects dramatically outperform their draft-year production, not because they suddenly became more talented, but because their circumstances finally allow that talent to shine. Whether it’s a move to a powerhouse NCAA program, recovering from injury, earning a larger role, adjusting to North American hockey, or simply benefiting from another year of physical development, context often drives the biggest statistical breakouts. If you’re looking to get ahead of the rest of your dynasty league, these are exactly the types of players to target before their production catches up to their talent. By this time next year, don’t be surprised if several names on this list have climbed significantly in both prospect rankings and dynasty value.

Thanks for reading! See you next week. For more fantasy hockey analysis, or if there's a prospect, topic, or theme you'd like me to cover, follow and message me on X: https://x.com/VictorNuno12